[Tubby Isaacs]

Rachel Reeves plans £7.5bn tax rise in budget after U-turn on income tax rates
Chancellor expected to freeze level at which people start paying income tax for two years rather than putting rates up

This a more regressive approach than raising the rate and raising the threshold. Then again, you could argue that the threshold being jacked up by Clegg and the Tories has narrowed the tax base too much.

Will this be enough to calm the markets?

[The Weeping Angel]

This particular idea may not have been very seriously floated. Unlike the briefing on income tax, this might have been someone knows somebody who said in Pret...

In other news, and perhaps a sign I need to spend less time on Bluesky, here's an old favourite.

Hard to know who he means here, if he hasn't just made it up, but the staunchest defenders of Starmer are surely those who agreed with what he said before the election about Brexit. Nobody could seriously have taken that as some sort of expansive Rejoin agenda that was ditched on getting into Downing Street.

Like a few people who built up clicks on the back of being a staunch Remainer, Edwin's got no actual interest in what's happening. Does he read David Henig, Steve Peers, UK In A Changing Europe? The agreement with the EU member states on the negotiating mandate (checks nots) this actual week isn't consistent with "nothing can be done". Nor is the work on alignment, which has stepped up since the election. What does he think all the meeting with EU leaders is about?

Increasingly I think this element of social media is out of control, just like others. It's not informed good faith criticism. Sure, the Government could certainly sell what it's doing better- though there have been very high profile occasions, like the last Budget and doubtless this one, where it has. I don't blame the general public getting this impression, but people who masquerade as political commentators need to do much better.

I'm with spending less time on Bluesky as well.

[Tubby Isaacs]

File this under spineless useless government if you want, but this is very clear. Edit- everyone hates income tax rises and thinks the Government has done the right thing by not doing them.


The sane centrist Lib Dems are in the same pickle as Labour, so no wonder Davey waffles about a £25bn Customs Union that nobody in the EU has shown any interest in. Given the reaction of some countries to what the Commission agreed with Starmer, I reckon they'd look for a big payment from the UK if such a thing ever did exist.

Of course, things falling to bits will also be unpopular. So we must hope that there are indeed plenty of smaller taxes out there that can be raised. A commentator I saw earlier said this would be politically harder because all those lobbies will come out fighting. That's definitely true, but how much success have they had with public opinion? Are gambling firms or City law partners any more likely to win sympathy than private schools and richer farmers and non-dams? And there was reference to the "pasty tax" (hot takeaway food). Would it be really so disastrous if that had been charged VAT for the last dozen years? Same with tax on conservatories, which were in the same budget and also withdrawn. I'd have taken those over the cuts that happened instead.

[The Weeping Angel]

I think they should raise income tax, and I'm disappointed that they didn't, but I do find it amusing that the blueksy consensus is out of touch with public opinion.

[Abernathy]

Yeah, just as we were all getting used to the idea, eh ?

[The Weeping Angel]

File this under spineless useless government if you want, but this is very clear. Edit- everyone hates income tax rises and thinks the Government has done the right thing by not doing them.


The sane centrist Lib Dems are in the same pickle as Labour, so no wonder Davey waffles about a £25bn Customs Union that nobody in the EU has shown any interest in. Given the reaction of some countries to what the Commission agreed with Starmer, I reckon they'd look for a big payment from the UK if such a thing ever did exist.

Of course, things falling to bits will also be unpopular. So we must hope that there are indeed plenty of smaller taxes out there that can be raised. A commentator I saw earlier said this would be politically harder because all those lobbies will come out fighting. That's definitely true, but how much success have they had with public opinion? Are gambling firms or City law partners any more likely to win sympathy than private schools and richer farmers and non-dams? And there was reference to the "pasty tax" (hot takeaway food). Would it be really so disastrous if that had been charged VAT for the last dozen years? Same with tax on conservatories, which were in the same budget and also withdrawn. I'd have taken those over the cuts that happened instead.

i noticed the Lib Dems had the bright idea of cutting VAT. Nor were they two keen on the idea of raising income tax.

[The Weeping Angel]

I fear Bluesky will erupt over this.

[kreuzberger]

Let's all hope that the convention of Purdah* is readopted ahead of the next budget.

*Yes, that's the one which the BBC's comedy northern twat today confused with Omertà, (pronounced "Claw- dia").

[Boiler]

How about just stop leaking everything in order to test it in the court of public opinion?

[Tubby Isaacs]

I fear Bluesky will erupt over this.

It may well have a point. What has she found that Cooper missed? It was probably missed for a good reason, whatever it was.

Would be nice to think they reached a stage where they just got on with processing cases. Seems like they never will. I wonder if offshore processing could be happening? That’s always been regarded as too expensive.

[The Weeping Angel]

It part of a Danish style approach to immigration.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231x8rj1zpo

People granted asylum in the UK will only be allowed to stay in the country temporarily, in a major change of policy to be announced by the home secretary on Monday.

Shabana Mahmood is expected to declare that the era of permanent protection for refugees is over, as she seeks to reduce asylum claims and small boat crossings.

Under the plans, those granted asylum will be returned to their home country when it is deemed safe and their status will be regularly reviewed.

Currently, refugee status in the UK lasts for five years, after which they can apply for indefinite leave to remain and have a route to citizenship.

There are currently some temporary schemes for those fleeing the conflict in Ukraine. This was initially for three years but extensions have been granted.

Government insiders are describing a move to temporary status for all successful asylum seekers as a "significant shift".

The policy has been copied from Denmark, where a government led by the centre-left Social Democrats has presided over one of the toughest asylum and immigration systems in Europe.

In Denmark, refugees are given temporary residence permits, typically of two years, and in effect have to re-apply for asylum when they expire.

A previous presumption in the Danish system to extend permits was scrapped.

Even for those who are allowed to extend multiple times, the route to citizenship has grown longer and harder.

The Danish approach is admired by UK government ministers, including Mahmood, who point out that as the Social Democrat party's immigration policies hardened their poll ratings rose - and those of a populist right-wing movement, the People's Party, fell.

The home secretary believes that unless Labour takes similar decisions then "darker forces" could thrive in the UK.

The thing about Bluesky is that it's approach to immigration can be summed up as follows

1. Immigration is good

2. Immigrants are great as they can do all the cheap jobs.

3. You should just copy Spain.

4. You can out Reform reform. Any announcement is met with this.

[The Weeping Angel]

[Tubby Isaacs]

Spain's always mentioned, usually in the context of booming economy and a great liberal government. The booming economy has much cheaper energy than the UK, and that's not something that could be replicated quickly by the UK. And even with that, the PP and Vox would form the next government if the election were held now.

The Danish Government have said some awful things about breaking up "Muslim ghettos". That ought to form no part of a UK Government's plans. As for this, it'll split Labour supporters. You don't really want more of that at the moment. It's not just the policies, it's the sense that this is all Labour does which is upsetting people. Can't Shabana have a day off?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Good news for North Wales. They'll need a few more of these ahead of the Welsh Elections, preferably in South Wales, given where Reform is competitive. That might at least get some Labour regional votes to keep them competitive.

One problem is that the constant Shabana stuff drowns this out. I hope that at some point there's a pivot to "we made these changes, let the system now work". I am not confident of that.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The route to citizenship stuff that Labour is doing is outright bollocks, and can't even be justified by public opinion. Changing it for people already in the process will hopefully get chucked out by the courts. But for new people, there's surely got to be some quick way of getting it for people who do everything people want them to. Such people may not be short of offers from other places.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Here's a nice illustration of where we are. What most people think about the Tories is wrong. They don't "whack up tax on ordinary people to give it to the rich". Because they might be nationalist goons, but they can look at a spreadsheet. Nor do US Republicans, for the same reasons.

Of course average earners in the UK are fucked over with housing costs, so nobody feels well off. It's very hard to know what to do about this.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Back in the day, John Moore (a then Thatcherite high flyer) presented a graph on a political broadcast showing that the UK had much less private healthcare than other places. It didn't go down well, and Mr Moore was gone from the Commons at the end of the Parliament.

I don't recommend that any UK politician do a broadcast with this graph,

[The Weeping Angel]

Spain's always mentioned, usually in the context of booming economy and a great liberal government. The booming economy has much cheaper energy than the UK, and that's not something that could be replicated quickly by the UK. And even with that, the PP and Vox would form the next government if the election were held now.

The Danish Government have said some awful things about breaking up "Muslim ghettos". That ought to form no part of a UK Government's plans. As for this, it'll split Labour supporters. You don't really want more of that at the moment. It's not just the policies, it's the sense that this is all Labour does which is upsetting people. Can't Shabana have a day off?

I take your point on splitting Labour supporters, and no there should be no muslim ghettos. Yet I feel that the vitriolic reaction on Bluesky is just pissing me off.

[The Weeping Angel]

It's all McSweeney's fault, I suppose.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The emphasis and bad politics almost certainly is.

There are a few countries in the EU already pressing the ECHR for changes, and I'd be surprised if something like this didn't become fairly standard, rather than just something Danes did. Will people win elections promising to scrap it? I don't know. The 2002 Blair era changes which made it much harder to board a flight and claim asylum at Heathrow were opposed by the more liberal left. Corbyn didn't seek to revisit them, and as far as I know the Greens aren't now.