[mattomac]

It really wouldn’t surprise me if Labour win it, they will likely have the best data of the three parties and none of the opinion polls would give me confidence.

Also “energetic” campaigns, every time I see anything about their campaigns they seem to be having issues.

[Abernathy]

I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

[davidjay]

I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

It could also be that the tide's turning for his ratings.

[Oboogie]

I see the Greens going to be debating a motion that Zionism is racism, calling the overwhelming majority* of the population racists may not be the vote winner they think it is.

* figures for the population are hard to find - presumably because it's such a fringe position -, but even among the young, only 21% say Israel has no right to exist.

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/twenty-on ... t-s9yf1ws6

[Tubby Isaacs]

This won't get much attention. The Greens are doing their job, taking votes from Labour.

[mattomac]

I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

Again probably suggests the data is better than that opinion poll more in line with that predicator on Britain elects which did actually underperform Labour in Runcorn but had a really good record in the last government.

[Oboogie]

I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

Again probably suggests the data is better than that opinion poll more in line with that predicator on Britain elects which did actually underperform Labour in Runcorn but had a really good record in the last government.

I've helpfully forgotten the details but Phil Moorhouse of ADifferentBias reckons that there's only been one poll for G&D by a reputable pollster* and that indicated a Labour lead. I think the fact Starmer's prepared to put his name to it indicates that Labour's intel reckons they're in with a shout - we'll find out if they're right on Friday.

* as opposed to the gaslighting fake ones shared by the Greens.

[Youngian]

Even if the Green surge is real, Labour mobilising to reduce Reform to third place is still important.

[Abernathy]

Kezia Dugdale was on the radio earlier pointing out that as a former party organiser, a party leader or PM turning up at your by-election campaign is a huge headache. It distracts your workers, there's extra work to be done in reconnoitering venues and routes etc and co-ordinating timings with the leader's staff and so on.

So Starmer turning up in Gorton in the final week signals a couple of things :

It points up the importance of this by-election in terms of stopping Reform UK.
It probably means we are confident that we have the necessary promises to win and know where they are. It's now just a question of getting the vote out. I expect the GOTV effort to be mahoosive.

Another thing to note in passing is that Starmer had what appeared to be a quite convivial tete a tete with Burnham while he was there. Make of that what you will, but I'd view it as a positive.

[Youngian]

A veteran party agent recalled David Blunkett turning up to canvass for a by-election with a megaphone but he refused to accept this is old hat and voters now dislike them intensely. So they drove Blunkett around some fields.