[mattomac]

Big editorial meeting on BBC Breakfast News as they decide which graphic to lead with at the top of the hour...

You'll be shocked to hear they plumped for the "questions for Keir Starmer to answer" graph, rather than "where were the Tories and Lib Dems?".

It is rather fair if I’m honest, it’s a poor result. And Starmer needs to answer questions, however the Tories as you rightly point out, what is even the point, opposition to the LDs in the south? A party that’s governed for the majority of the last 125 years?

LDs were a poor 5th here last time so I assume whatever they put up was a paper candidate.

Reform need to consider is there a ceiling, I expect Plaid will hold them off in Wales, they may oddly enough help Labour a bit in Scotland.

They’ve taken well too many Tories in to their fold and Tories that were clearly the worst of them. Their policy announcements this week have been odd and Goodwin’s been pushing it to the limit. Was this attempt to see what would fly or are they just a bit shit at this.

On top of all that you have some odd speeches about how they should be allowed to govern or else, which frankly is fascist and I’ll call it that, sorry for those who feel it’s overused.

Anyhow Greens have done well and the concern for Labour is this is the kind of seat they’ve been able to count on in the past. Expect however now the press to focus on attacking Zack.

[Bones McCoy]

Let me tell you the story from Reform's perspective, in numbers, which I understand and trust more than words.

Reform are hoping to sneak in against a split progressive vote with Greens taking many traditional Labour votes.
They have a lot going for them.
* Neck and neck predictions between Greens and Labour.
* Unpopular Government - always cruising for a kicking in a by-election.
* Can throw their not inconsiderable party resources into a single seat.
* Massive press support - reflecting the disarray of the Tories at present.

Reform's hope:
* 60/40 or closer split of Labour / Green votes.
* Get just enough votes to scrape a win.

What actually happened:
* Labour/Greens muster 24,000 votes.
* Reform musters 10,000.
* Reform can't win on 10,000, even with the perfect opposition split.


What's left?
Something, something, family voting...



Riiiiight?

[The Weeping Angel]

Big editorial meeting on BBC Breakfast News as they decide which graphic to lead with at the top of the hour...

You'll be shocked to hear they plumped for the "questions for Keir Starmer to answer" graph, rather than "where were the Tories and Lib Dems?".

It is rather fair if I’m honest, it’s a poor result. And Starmer needs to answer questions, however the Tories as you rightly point out, what is even the point, opposition to the LDs in the south? A party that’s governed for the majority of the last 125 years?

LDs were a poor 5th here last time so I assume whatever they put up was a paper candidate.

Reform need to consider is there a ceiling, I expect Plaid will hold them off in Wales, they may oddly enough help Labour a bit in Scotland.

They’ve taken well too many Tories in to their fold and Tories that were clearly the worst of them. Their policy announcements this week have been odd and Goodwin’s been pushing it to the limit. Was this attempt to see what would fly or are they just a bit shit at this.

On top of all that you have some odd speeches about how they should be allowed to govern or else, which frankly is fascist and I’ll call it that, sorry for those who feel it’s overused.

Anyhow Greens have done well and the concern for Labour is this is the kind of seat they’ve been able to count on in the past. Expect however now the press to focus on attacking Zack.

That's a fair take and better than some I've seen.

[Abernathy]

I gather that Goodwin was somewhat ungracious* at the declaration.

* being a massive cunt

[Tubby Isaacs]

I haven't added up all the minor parties. but the Tories-Reform got only 30.6%. Greens and Labour got 66.1%. In terms of the votes cast, it was impossible for misplaced tactical votes to let in Reform- if you take Green voters and start adding them to Labour, Reform still lose to somebody. Now if you replace Muslim voters with white voters, Reform become quite a bit more competitive. They might then have sneaked home, but that would depend on people picking the wrong tactical option. In a general election, it's mostly easy enough to spot who that is.

Reform could kick on from here, but in terms of where they are now, I think it's clear lots of the coverage has overestimated them. It's don't think there are too many easy by-election possibilities for them, despite all these maps you see predicting them winning everywhere.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It’s beyond there dreadful comms mind. Announce something good it’s watered down, announce something something bad we get weeks of special interest groups.

Announce improvements and they don’t get a peep.

The improvements get constant special interest groups criticizing them as well. Try and build green mass transport and half the reaction will be about "ecocide". And lots of the rest is "just upgrade the other lines", just like we also get "just rejoin FFS", "just tax the rich FFS", and "just tell Trump to fuck off".

[Tubby Isaacs]

Let me tell you the story from Reform's perspective, in numbers, which I understand and trust more than words.

Reform are hoping to sneak in against a split progressive vote with Greens taking many traditional Labour votes.
They have a lot going for them.
* Neck and neck predictions between Greens and Labour.
* Unpopular Government - always cruising for a kicking in a by-election.
* Can throw their not inconsiderable party resources into a single seat.
* Massive press support - reflecting the disarray of the Tories at present.

Reform's hope:
* 60/40 or closer split of Labour / Green votes.
* Get just enough votes to scrape a win.

What actually happened:
* Labour/Greens muster 24,000 votes.
* Reform musters 10,000.
* Reform can't win on 10,000, even with the perfect opposition split.


What's left?

Good post, and I repeated your numbers point because I hadn't seen this. I think it's significant. I don't think they'd win in Runcorn if that were held now.

[The Weeping Angel]

Seen quite a few people saying Burnham should have been allowed to run.

[Abernathy]

Seen quite a few people saying Burnham should have been allowed to run.

You don’t say. Who knew ?

Loudest has been that gobshite simpleton Karl Turner. Wonder who appointed him the voice of the backbench thickos ?

[mattomac]

If Andy was the only one who could win the election then who was going run for Mayor?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Reeves seems to have made a rick with the freeze of the point where student loan repayments kick in. That probably doesn't raise all that much money and will have mobilized lots of students against Labour. Hopefully she can put this right in a future budget.

I like Bridget Philipson but she doesn't seem very interested in universities. I'd like to see them put back under the Business department, because there are strong business arguments on eg overseas students that I think need a stronger champion in Cabinet.

[Tubby Isaacs]

If Andy was the only one who could win the election then who was going run for Mayor?

Whoever it was would have had Reform (with all their strong areas in ex-industrial Greater Manchester) making hay with the fact that Andy had fucked off to Westminster after less than half his term. That wouldn't have done that candidate any favors. Just like he did the candidate in this by-election no favors.

[Bones McCoy]

If Andy was the only one who could win the election then who was going run for Mayor?

Whoever it was would have had Reform (with all their strong areas in ex-industrial Greater Manchester) making hay with the fact that Andy had fucked off to Westminster after less than half his term. That wouldn't have done that candidate any favors. Just like he did the candidate in this by-election no favors.

Burnham announced his decision and didn't go moaning about being blocked.

Likely the right decision from the big picture perspective.
* Labour's majority shrinks by one.
* Most of he flim-flam following the by-election seems to be about Goodwin's bad loss.
* The more Reform whinge, the more they Streisand up their defeat.
* Labour Mayor leads a major English City - with opportunities to do good stuff.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Another good point about this result is that Farage's "general election" call is much weaker. Perhaps Zack will take up the slack, but even if he does, Labour are in the centre of the two parties pushing loudest for it, and that's not a bad place to be.

Of course, it's bollocks anyway. I always come back to John Major. He was hammered by massive swings from May 1993 onwards (the first of these, Newbury, had a 28.4% swing). His government were at least allowed to finish their term.

[Boiler]

I gather that Goodwin was somewhat ungracious* at the declaration.

* being a massive cunt

Stewart Jackson-level ungracious?

[Samanfur]

I'm old enough to remember when the LOTO's party losing its deposit for the first time in over 40 years would've been a major event.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It has happened when the tactical vote is very obvious from the previous election- Richmond 2016, Chesham and Amersham 2021. The difference here is that Kemi started only 7% behind Reform, and that the Labour-Lib Dem dynamic worked by each having their own territory. What's Kemi's territory? The posh bit of Northallerton?

[Boiler]

Meanwhile, whilst people are distracted by a piddling by-election Trump is telling Yanks to leave Israel whilst they can and is filling aircraft carriers with fighters.

[Bones McCoy]

I gather that Goodwin was somewhat ungracious* at the declaration.

* being a massive cunt

Stewart Jackson-level ungracious?

Rugby Union fans may recall Aussie PM John Howard.

Presented England's World Cup winning team's trophy with a "face like a slapped arse".

[Tubby Isaacs]

Reading about Hannah Spencer's campaign. Seems to have been pretty well thought out, focussing on a few things that could plausibly be delivered by a wealth tax. It doesn't sound much like Grace Blakeley economics and nuclear disarmament featured too much. I don't know how involved Zack's team were with the campaign, but you'd think they probably were fairly closely involved. Perhaps they're already moving towards a more electable position. I wouldn't mind betting that the drugs position becomes appointing a Royal Commission before too long.

Nothing wrong with this at all. And probably smart. The number of true believers in these "radical" positions is probably not too big. Provided Zack is nice to them, where are they going to go?