satnav wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2026 10:12 pm
Whilst he should win the by-election easily 6 weeks of close scrutiny is probably going to damage him in the long-term especially if he has to go through all this again in 6 months time.
I think this is going to be a by election where a win is only a benefit for Farage if he walks away with a strongly increased majority. And given there’s no vote split and a single “not Farage” protest candidate to rally round, a media more hostile to him that he’s used to, and the fact his stunt and his shitty performance as a local MP (local if you live in Washington DC, maybe) have pissed off some of his own supporters, that’s unlikely. He clearly desperately wanted a Burnham-style endorsement, but that’s not happening.
I reckon his very best case realistic scenario now is a win where he does well and Binface loses his deposit. Because any Binface performance above and beyond that will be framed as “he can’t even take out the bins” etc for evermore.
If the numbers get even remotely interesting though - and I’d count anything north of 1000 votes for Binface in this category - then it’s rapidly sliding into days are numbered territory for Farage because he’ll be so obviously weakened even before any inquiry. And if Binface can get into 5 digits (unlikely, but this is a “Boaty McBoatface” scenario and the British Public do love to serve up a “fuck you” to people who expect them to all behave a certain way), he’ll be destroyed even if he wins by double or triple the amount.
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- By The Weeping Angel