[Youngian]

Why smart people don’t make hubristic predictions.

[Crabcakes]

Final mega-poll out: Labour still 19 points clear. Tories up slightly, but all at Reform’s expense.

[Spoonman]

[davidjay]

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

https://x.com/Survation/status/1808198101964148928

[Youngian]

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

https://x.com/Survation/status/1808198101964148928

Those numbers will trigger one hell of a bun fight on the right.

Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm looking at the data, and I think RFM only get 1- Clacton.

[Oboogie]

Considering that a mere four and a half years ago I'd have bitten your hand off for a hung Parliament, it's proof of how far Starmer has brought us that, looking at that poll, I'm disappointed that the LibDems are still shy of 2nd place.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm still struggling to believe that the SNP will do as bad as predicted almost everywhere, but if this is the best they've got, then maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

[Crabcakes]

That survation poll seems too good to be true. But I’d take an average of that and the R&W poll any day of the week

[Youngian]

Vote Conservative or Starmer will kill your kittens

[davidjay]

Two days to go.

[Bones McCoy]

Begging cat from Shrek pleads

[Crabcakes]

Election day tomorrow and we haven’t had a single leaflet, flyer or call from the Tories and I haven’t seen any banners, posters or placards anywhere that aren’t either Labour or green (and in a ratio of about 10:1).

Obviously they’re screwed, but this is still really surprising.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Election day tomorrow and we haven’t had a single leaflet, flyer or call from the Tories and I haven’t seen any banners, posters or placards anywhere that aren’t either Labour or green (and in a ratio of about 10:1).

Obviously they’re screwed, but this is still really surprising.

Same here.
But the Tories might be avoiding me since I told one of their canvassers to fuck off a year ago.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Here's the candidate running in Bethnal Green and Stepney. He complains about being smeared. He naturally runs a mile from smears.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Election day tomorrow and we haven’t had a single leaflet, flyer or call from the Tories and I haven’t seen any banners, posters or placards anywhere that aren’t either Labour or green (and in a ratio of about 10:1).

Obviously they’re screwed, but this is still really surprising.

We had 2 flyers. I wonder if they're taking a chance that the seat is in the bag, which it may well might be despite all the Green Party signs..

[slilley]

Had leaflets from most candidates here in the Slough constituency. I understand that in centre of Slough there are quite a few posters and signs for one of the independent candidates.

My gut feeling is that Tan Dhesi will be returned with a reduced majority from his current one of 13,640.

Simon

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Cripes...

Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory

Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result) [range 391-466]
Con: 102 (-263) [range 78-129]
Lib Dem: 72 (+61) [range 57-87]
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)


https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808531046377426999

[safe_timber_man]

Really surprised the Mail allowed this ad? Guess it's all money at the end of the day.

mail.jpg (270.3 KiB) Viewed 1119 times

[Crabcakes]

Cripes...

Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory

Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result) [range 391-466]
Con: 102 (-263) [range 78-129]
Lib Dem: 72 (+61) [range 57-87]
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)


https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808531046377426999

Oh come on, Malc - this is in fact bitterly disappointing for Starmer and a sign of Labour’s weakness because with this result they will fail to beat [checks notes] the result of 1832 when The Earl Grey got a 224 majority for the Whigs.