[RedSparrows]

Hasn't stopped the discourse Labour have been utterly defeated and it's the fault of NI rises, PIP and WFA.

So what do you think has caused it? Because something's pissed enough people off to go and put an X against the Reform candidate's name.

As Crabcakes is saying, whilst no doubt those have had an impact, the Tories lost more: suggesting that the people of Runcorn and Helsby on that side of the spectrum decided that ackshually, Reform were their bag cos the Tories are totally pointless. Then some no doubt shifted Labour > Reform, and that is part of the whole story, not the whole itself.

If Labour could stop chasing Reform on immigration, that'd be great...

[Crabcakes]

Exactly. This is 2 things, not 1. The continued collapse of the Tory party is one, and Labour having to face up to the consequences of a handful of recent, very high profile, very unpopular policies.

The correct thing for them to do now is move to amend the latter, not move to try and capture votes they were never going to get from the former.

It doesn’t have to be a big shift. Just say the message has been heard, the changes will be reviewed, and look again at tax. It doesn’t have to be all wealth tax a la Corbyn, but there is a very real (and truth based, if overinflated) sense that any sort of tax has been ignored in favour of cuts that affect the worst off.

Timing is also a factor. If these had come off of Starmer’s pulling together of Europe to support Ukraine that probably would have shifted enough votes to keep Reform out. As it is, I hope it’s taken as a very early warning that some good policies like breakfast clubs and GB energy is not enough.

[Youngian]

If Labour could stop chasing Reform on immigration, that'd be great...

Didn't know they were. If Labour can't get people arriving in dingies off the news cycle, they're stuffed. Get a deal with France to host reception centres or send them back to the Mediterranean in exchange for fishing ground concessions. Throwing fishermen under the bus to end this problem is a very good exchange.

[Tubby Isaacs]

NI rises and WFA would have been the big ones, I think. Both, in my view, correct.

The PIP stuff will have cost more than 6 votes, and didn't even need to be announced till October. So I think that was the biggest unforced error.

[The Weeping Angel]

Exactly. This is 2 things, not 1. The continued collapse of the Tory party is one, and Labour having to face up to the consequences of a handful of recent, very high profile, very unpopular policies.

The correct thing for them to do now is move to amend the latter, not move to try and capture votes they were never going to get from the former.

It doesn’t have to be a big shift. Just say the message has been heard, the changes will be reviewed, and look again at tax. It doesn’t have to be all wealth tax a la Corbyn, but there is a very real (and truth based, if overinflated) sense that any sort of tax has been ignored in favour of cuts that affect the worst off.

Timing is also a factor. If these had come off of Starmer’s pulling together of Europe to support Ukraine that probably would have shifted enough votes to keep Reform out. As it is, I hope it’s taken as a very early warning that some good policies like breakfast clubs and GB energy is not enough.

A big problem is politics is just vibes now. Labour did raise taxes but it doesn't count, they increased spending but it doesn't count, they have done various things but they just don't count. I reckon when they raise taxes in the autumn the same people will pivot to complain about the tax rises.

[RedSparrows]

If Labour could stop chasing Reform on immigration, that'd be great...

Didn't know they were. If Labour can't get people arriving in dingies off the news cycle, they're stuffed. Get a deal with France to host reception centres or send them back to the Mediterranean in exchange for fishing ground concessions. Throwing fishermen under the bus to end this problem is a very good exchange.

I apologise in that my view of Labour on this is primarily vibes driven, as TWA rightly bemoans - but the 'Blue Labour' thing doesn't fly with me, never has.

[Tubby Isaacs]

If Labour could stop chasing Reform on immigration, that'd be great...

Didn't know they were. If Labour can't get people arriving in dingies off the news cycle, they're stuffed. Get a deal with France to host reception centres or send them back to the Mediterranean in exchange for fishing ground concessions. Throwing fishermen under the bus to end this problem is a very good exchange.

I think the idea that only Reform voters care about the issue is mistaken, as is the idea it goes away if Labour "stops elevating Reform talking points".. Getting on processing the claims hasn't made much of a difference. Perhaps some of them working while claims are being processed might do? But I'm not hopeful.

I keep reading that the solution is to "improve people's lives'.. This seems to mean spending lots of money with only Ineos and Alan Sugar paying more tax, which is "obvious".

All they have really is a John Major-style "long game" on the economy, and that might work about as well as it did for John Major.

[The Weeping Angel]

If Labour could stop chasing Reform on immigration, that'd be great...

Didn't know they were. If Labour can't get people arriving in dingies off the news cycle, they're stuffed. Get a deal with France to host reception centres or send them back to the Mediterranean in exchange for fishing ground concessions. Throwing fishermen under the bus to end this problem is a very good exchange.

I think the idea that only Reform voters care about the issue is mistaken, as is the idea it goes away if Labour "stops elevating Reform talking points".. Getting on processing the claims hasn't made much of a difference. Perhaps some of them working while claims are being processed might do? But I'm not hopeful.

I keep reading that the solution is to "improve people's lives'.. This seems to mean spending lots of money with only Ineos and Alan Sugar paying more tax, which is "obvious".

All they have really is a John Major-style "long game" on the economy, and that might work about as well as it did for John Major.

That's broadly the consensus on Bluesky.

[Crabcakes]

A big problem is politics is just vibes now. Labour did raise taxes but it doesn't count, they increased spending but it doesn't count, they have done various things but they just don't count. I reckon when they raise taxes in the autumn the same people will pivot to complain about the tax rises.

I get what you’re saying, and to be honest I think they do count - they just aren’t enough to offset what people perceive (in some cases correctly, to be honest) as harsh cuts that go too far while other changes don’t go far enough.

[Tubby Isaacs]

"Just improve people's lives"? I thought it might be. It's got really shit recently, Real wages, spending, investment and indeed borrowing are all going up.

Quite pleased Labour beat the Greens in the West of England mayoralty, as that's one of their best areas. I think their bias against building would be both an enormous nuisance and very popular.

[The Weeping Angel]

"Just improve people's lives"? I thought it might be. It's got really shit recently, Real wages, spending, investment and indeed borrowing are all going up.

Quite pleased Labour beat the Greens in the West of England mayoralty, as that's one of their best areas. I think their bias against building would be both an enormous nuisance and very popular.

The only thing that will improve people's lives is getting rid of the benefits cap at least according to bluesky.

[Abernathy]

I think that Labour's narrative that the Tories left behind a horrendous mess for Labour to sort out and that some "difficult decisions" had to be taken in order immediately to stabilise things before moving on to delivering really good things once reinvigorated economic growth returns is wearing a little thin. The good bits of that narrative might well have arrived by now had it not been for various external factors: Trump 2:0, Ukraine, continuing Brexit shit. I agree too that the political impact of the measures that resulted from those "difficult decisions" : Winter Fuel Allowance changes, welfare benefits restrictions, equalisation of inheritance tax on farmers and so on, might have been underestimated. The nature of the changes themselves leave the government open to the charge that they were ill-considered

We are only 9 months in to a 5 year term of government, and the question now is what can be done to bring forward those good things that are part of the secondary phase of the plan for government - if that really is what's needed.

Despite all the feverish talk of a sea-change in UK politics, I still think that the success of Farage's band of cunts in these elections is a flash in the pan, albeit an extended one. The Tories remain gurgling in deep shite, with a clueless leader , but you can bet that they will be back within the next 2 or 3 years.

I still have faith in Keir and his government. Things can only get better, to coin a phrase.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I get what you’re saying, and to be honest I think they do count - they just aren’t enough to offset what people perceive (in some cases correctly, to be honest) as harsh cuts that go too far while other changes don’t go far enough.

I agree about the benefit cuts, especially how they were formulated and announced.

I don't think the progress made does count really. Seen very little acknowledgment of improvements in waiting lists, for example. Partly that's down to an unpopular Health Secretary who nobody feels they want to stand up for, but there's an enormous bias against the Government too. You'd have heard all the time if the Tory Government had done that, and that's before the extra NHS money (for which they've also got no credit) has kicked in.

The EU deal will be "pathetically unambitious" or "desperate sell out", with hardly anybody in between. The planning reforms so far were scored as a permanent improvement of GDP by 0.4% within 10 years, but all we hear on that is that the houses will be unaffordable, horrible and probably in the wrong place. I wish I were optimistic that the positive effects would feed through, but I doubt they will.

[Tubby Isaacs]

There's also something I've noticed before, which does come from experts, but does irritate me a bit.

It's basically "the government needs to find all this extra money for my area, now", like there aren't loads of areas like that. The Secret Barrister does this, so do some commentators on universities. How do you decide between money for courts, universities and, say, schools that are falling down? I think of those universities have a case in that there's a (partial solution) there in terms of more overseas students, but it would still be a lot of public money. Sure, there are long term arguments for it, but there are long term arguments for most things.

Another thing I've noticed is a strange attitude to government that it basically doesn't matter who does it. Of course no government is going to get everything right, but I keep hearing "technocrat" as some sort of killer argument against anyone who's to the right of Corbyn. Another irregular verb "I have policy idea that all work", "you're a yawn technocrat".

[Youngian]

Despite all the feverish talk of a sea-change in UK politics, I still think that the success of Farage's band of cunts in these elections is a flash in the pan, albeit an extended one.

Not feeling it either. Farage shot his bolt in 2016, Labour's doomed if it can't see off this feeble retread.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm feeling it, unfortunately. Those shire results are astonishing. Reform are winning everywhere except Devon.

[Youngian]

Reform have been making a lot of noise in Wisbech but failed to topple the Tory incumbents. The town was a racist Kipper hot spot 15 years ago so it's interesting that it no longer is. East European families are now embedded friends and neighbours not aliens and the local Tories have been canny enough not to dog whistle xenophobia.