[Killer Whale]

There's a long, long way to go, but Labour support seems to be tanking ahead of next year's Senedd elections. Cue the Baroness attempting to flood some clear red water between herself and the party in Westminster.

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-05- ... t-itv-poll

Labour support in Wales has slumped to its lowest since the start of devolution, according to an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll which suggests Plaid Cymru and Reform UK will battle to be the biggest party at the 2026 Senedd election.

The Barn Cymru poll, conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share - 18% - would be their worst result since the advent of devolution 26 years ago if replicated at next year's Senedd election.

The poll shows a large increase in Plaid Cymru’s vote share, which climbs to 30%, while the support for Reform has also continued to surge to 25%.

Given that Reform don't have so much as an official spokesperson in Wales, let alone anyone trusted enough to be leader, it seems that they're content to remain a cult surrounding the Dear Leader for as long as possible. Heaven only knows what kind of native weirdos and carpetbagging grifters from over the border they are going to get to stand, particularly as their English councillors start to realise that there's actual work to be done once you get past the glamorous bit in the municipal sports halls and leisure centres.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Reform in the Senedd will be basically"Abolish this place", I presume, like they were in the European Parliament. Maybe Andrea Jenkyns wants to abolish the Lincolnshire Mayoralty, but they can't really run Lincolnshire County Council like they want it abolished.

[Youngian]

Voting for Plaid, LDs or Greens to protest against Labour welfare cuts is one thing but Farage! Must be off their rockers.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That 25% will be considerably higher in South Wales, which will do about as well out of welfare cuts as County Durham.

[Killer Whale]

Just a bit of fun at this stage, but bloody hell.

[mattomac]

Only good thing is the Tory seat count would be so low and Plaid the biggest party that it kills off any coalition, I do think this might be their high point. Labour will probably benefit from the expansion.

Obvious would be a Plaid/Labour coalition but I can see these numbers slightly change over the next year.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Plaid First Munister would be a formidable political problem for Labour. Not least because “Wales doesn’t get the money it should” is completely correct.

[Youngian]

Plaid unlike Labour is also in a position to point out Wales gets less funds than it did as an EU member. So Farage can fuck off as well.

[mattomac]

Maybe they deserve to, they obviously get shafted by the Bartlett Formula

[Killer Whale]