[Youngian]

No return to freedom of movement

As if it would make much difference. Apart from Romanians and Bulgarians, most EU workers would now be making a loss taking up jobs in the UK outside London.

Indeed

[Tubby Isaacs]

There's a lot of dishonest bollocks going on.

There is indeed. The bits highlighted are making fairly sound points, in a couple of places too strongly. But that's not "reincarnation of `Enoch".

And there's a fairly strong streak of sticking it to business there too for inadequate training and opportunities for British workers. Worth remembering here that British workers aren't all white. I quoted the 1996 statement on Finnish nurses by Diane Abbot, for which she was rightly condemned. But I will grant that she (and Bernie Grant, who backed her up) were probably expressing something felt locally by Black British women, that they weren't getting a fair crack. I would think the same is true of lots of Asian Britons in eg Oldham. There are some plans in the white paper to use carrot and stick to make business train and develop more locally. If that works, that's in effect a tax rise on well off business owners, something we keep hearing Labour should do more of.

My main objection now, on reflection, is the pseudo intellectual rubbish about immigration not having brought growth. They're apparently trying to get the OBR to change its assessment, but it won't. This is quite unnecessary. There are perfectly solid reasons why you might want to reduce immigration around housing and infrastructure.

[Tubby Isaacs]

No return to freedom of movement

As if it would make much difference. Apart from Romanians and Bulgarians, most EU workers would now be making a loss taking up jobs in the UK outside London.

Once you take off housing costs, London comes behind SE England, and isn't that far ahead of other regions.

https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoin ... %20the,295)%3B%20North%20East%20£

Poland is the big one that's really come up in the world, and the relative absence of new Poles would be quite a difference, but the wages in the UK would still be attractive to the rest of the Eastern/Central Europe. You've also got Italy, which is (still) a bit richer, but pretty shitty for young people. So I think there's enough there for FoM to be enough of a political problem. I think FoM was sellable as part of a whole package as an EU member, and nobody really did that. But outside the EU, it's tougher.

[Youngian]

It's true that immigration increases GDP but does it raise GDP per capita? Haven't seen a definitive answer but it may depend on where you're sitting on the pay scale.

Tice has had a brain fart to solve the labour crisis in social care, send some skag heads from Boston dole office to look after your nan.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Actually, here's Philip Inman on the economy. Quite a bit stronger than Portes.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ment-jumps

Those who feared the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) would lead to job losses are being proved right. The unemployment rate climbed by 0.2 percentage points to 4.5% between January and March – the highest level for nearly four years.

Concerns that the number of vacancies would drop have also come true. Employers are refusing to take on new staff, pushing the vacancy rate back towards its pre-pandemic level.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's true that immigration increases GDP but does it raise GDP per capita? Haven't seen a definitive answer but it may depend on where you're sitting on the pay scale.

I don't know, assume it varies. One point that's often made is that immigrants themselves start in positions below where they could/should be and get promoted/better jobs fairly quickly, which raises the tax take. The white paper talked about GDP rather than GDP per capital. and that was rubbish.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Funny, I keep hearing about Reform going at the Government "from the left". My impression is that the left (and quite a few people who vote Reform) would say "pay the staff better". Does Tice really believe you can put anyone in a care home, or is that just his way of avoiding tax rises?

[Youngian]

How hard can care work be? Pop round with the shopping, make the bed and put the kettle on. Everything's simple when you're as simple as Reform.

[The Weeping Angel]

Actually, here's Philip Inman on the economy. Quite a bit stronger than Portes.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ment-jumps

Those who feared the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) would lead to job losses are being proved right. The unemployment rate climbed by 0.2 percentage points to 4.5% between January and March – the highest level for nearly four years.

Concerns that the number of vacancies would drop have also come true. Employers are refusing to take on new staff, pushing the vacancy rate back towards its pre-pandemic level.

Oh great. Of course those who say Reeves should raise taxes will also criticise Reeves for raising taxes.

[The Weeping Angel]