[Abernathy]

Maybe, once upon a time, we had a dedicated thread to talk about this, but I think it’s gone. Maybe time for a new discussion.

Apparently, according to the most recent polling, the issue of asylum and immigration is the most important issue for voters. The number one, most serious and urgent issue facing the country, more important even than the economy & the cost of living, and the NHS.

What has caused this startling change in peoples’ priorities ?

Well, right-wing agitators, Farage, Reform, Badenoch, Yaxley-Lennon, the Daily Mail, the Express, etc, etc, etc. The burgeoning figures on small fucking boats in a summer of fine weather and calm waters sur la manche.

My own view? I’m skeptical, annoyed, disappointed, bewildered even, and yes, even a bit scared. See, the thing is, I am incredibly relaxed on the “issue” of immigration (and I sometimes wonder if I’m the only one in the country). I really don’t care if increasing numbers of people want to come and share their lives with us here in the UK. In fact I welcome it. It is cultural enrichment and economic benefit for the UK I do recognise that there is an issue about small boat crossings, and that these need to be curtailed, but I’m happy that our government is doing its absolute best to address things and will achieve a resolution of sorts of the issue in time. And I absolutely hate the racism, the hatred, the xenophobia, the bogus patriotism that is being deliberately whipped up by cunts for their own short-term electoral benefit. I want desperately to believe that British people are better than that. I don’t want to live in a country where those hateful attitudes prevail.

[davidjay]

I agree with most of the above. However, there are a few newly arrived and second-generation immigrants spoiling it for the rest. Those of us on the side of the angels shouldn't be afraid to say that there are certain cultures for whom laws are there to be ignored. Not to do so provides ammunition for the other lot.

[Abernathy]

IThose of us on the side of the angels shouldn't be afraid to say that there are certain cultures for whom laws are there to be ignored.

Which specific cultures are those, then? Where is the evidence that that is the case ?

[davidjay]

The conviction rate amongst the Pakistani community is almost three times higher than amongst the Indian. My own experience in the court system brought me into contact with disproportionate numbers of Romanians and Albanians. The immigration debate should include why these things happen and how they can be solved.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Social class? I think the Bangladeshi imprisonment rate is a bit higher than the White rate. I’d guess that adjusting for social class would put the Bangladeshi rate lower.

[Abernathy]

I think that when you start to characterise entire “cultures” or nationalities in that way, you are on very dodgy ground indeed. It’s what Farage, Yaxley-Lennon, and the rest are asking us to believe - that whole groups of foreigners are coming to the UK to commit crime, rape and assault women and children , and steal from and cheat “decent” people, and that they should be kept out because of that. It’s substantially the thinking that gave us Donald Trump 2.0.

I don’t think it’s a conclusion that can safely , or should, be drawn, notwithstanding the alleged comparatively higher conviction rates among some ethnic groups that you cite. In as much as those comparatively higher conviction rates are a problem, they are an entirely separate problem from the issue of asylum & immigration, and absolutely should not be conflated with it.

Nigel Farage is, as we speak, standing up and claiming that he “fears” the country is on the brink of “public disorder” because of immigration. What he means, of course, is that he hopes that there will be public disorder. It is all part of his agenda to win power through striking fear into peoples’ hearts and fomenting anger and resentment. I don’t want that.

[Tubby Isaacs]

You also have to take into account the age and sex of each group. Young men commit the most crime everywhere. So if you recruit lots of builders from somewhere, you’ll have a higher crime rate than among a group where lots of nurses have been recruited.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

It is, however, statistically established that, on average, the educational attainment in people of Pakistani heritage is not as high as those of Indian heritage. The thinking is that it is due partly to social class, partly due to the filtering of those who have chosen to come to Britain, and partly due to social and religious attitudes.

[Rosvanian]

My black, dual citizen Zimbabwean/British colleague returned to work after two weeks holiday today. I asked him how he feels about the few flags that have (inevitably) appeared on lamposts in the arse end of Sunderland near where we work. This is a bloke who has completely integrated into British life in the 20 years he's been here. Not that he needed to make much effort: English is his native tongue and he grew up in a church going family and still goes every Sunday. He went to a CoE school and he lives in fucking Sunderland. His whole demeanor and world view is wearily British to a T. His answer to my question was one word: "worried", because he knows that Farage and co. don't just have the boat people in their sights.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It is, however, statistically established that, on average, the educational attainment in people of Pakistani heritage is not as high as those of Indian heritage. The thinking is that it is due partly to social class, partly due to the filtering of those who have chosen to come to Britain, and partly due to social and religious attitudes.

Indian GCSE performance is the highest of any ethnic group apart from Chinese. Pakistanis are better than White British, and indeed better than average.

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.ser ... -ethnicity

[Abernathy]

Yes, yes, all very interesting, but absolutely nothing to do with the issue of asylum and immigration.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Some figures on arrest rate by ethnicity.

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.ser ... -ethnicity

Pakistanis, like nearly everyone else, suffer in comparison with Indians. But they're about the UK average,

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yes, yes, all very interesting, but absolutely nothing to do with the issue of asylum and immigration.

Indeed. Just replying to what David said. Happy to keep on topic now.

[Tubby Isaacs]

My view. I think the government are doing some of the right things. And saying some of the right things. If your opponents keep saying you're letting everyone in, you have to tell them what you're actually doing. The message that the Tories salted the earth with an enormous backlog which they stopped processing hasn't sunk in at all. I don't find mass safe routes at all plausible as a political solution. Farage got enough political mileage out of the RNLI rescuing some small boats. God knows what he'd get out of the Government chartering ferries. Though the deal with France does allow some degree of safe passage.

I was surprised to learn that pre-Blair crackdown, there was more leeway for asylum seekers to work. I don't know if Macron would wear that (would he regard it as a pull factor?) but perhaps we could return to something like that as a pragmatic and humane step.

On immigration more generally, the point I keep coming back to as an "issue" is the complete failure to build housing for the population increases we've had.I don't see culture or economics as a downside. Nor pressure on services really, seeing that immigrants are usually young. But housing, I do see a problem. I hope the government can build a lot more. If they do, it'll be achieved in the teeth of opposition from not just the right but a section of the left who argue strongly for immigration, but not those houses there.

[Tubby Isaacs]

So I don't know what the sort of overall numbers for net immigration would be that we might get close to building housing for. That's above my pay grade. But it's the only real limit that matters to me. Well not limit really, but a number where I start seeing difficult trade offs I'd like not to get too big. Obviously, if you get the chance of a lot more house builders, you bite their hands off, whatever the net figure.

[davidjay]

The problem isn't that there aren't enough houses for immigrants, it's that there aren't enough houses for people who are already here. Which is much the same thing but that's where the discontent begins. Somebody's daughter can't get a house because "They're all given to illegals". Which is clearly not true but that's the perception. A decent social housing programme will kick the main strand of Farage's argument from under him. Follow that up with increased NHS and education spending and the country will be a lot happier.

[Abernathy]

You’re correct to highlight the importance of housing provision in relation to immigration. But other services and infrastructure - schools, medical services, and so on - that come under pressure through demand in areas experiencing high volumes of immigrants (or, when we were EU members, nationals of other EU member states exercising treaty rights of free movement) are also important. I always argued that the failure to provide adequate investment in key services in such areas - to meet the increased demand arising from incoming migrant residents is and was a failure of government (which coincidentally provided Farage et al with the ammunition he needed to enable Brexit). It is to be hoped that Labour’s housebuilding programme will begin to address this issue.

On immigration and Labour generally, back in about 2013 when I was a full time Labour Organiser, I recall Ed Miliband telling us all that we had to talk about immigration, because if we didn’t, nobody would listen to what we had to say about anything else. This was when we were viciously excoriated by the Trots, Guardianistas, and others for marketing a policy slogan coffee mug with “Controls on Immigration” printed on it.

Things have changed slightly.

[kreuzberger]

We can talk about Immigration & Asylum, but it is barely worth discussion. Rather, it is manufactured non-issue being whipped up by certain media miscreants, their mates in Tufton Street and some weirdo yanks with bottomless pots of money. It's EU/Brexit 2.0 but with Stetsons rather than big, furry titfas.

That the main broadcast outlets have been banging on all day (again) about forrins and the Messiah's grand vision is proof of this. It is bollocks. Moreover, alleged journalists are glossing over five of their colleagues being slaughtered in Gaza as if that is yesterday's chip wrapper, while normal outlets are reporting this latest atrocity as a potential crossing of the Rubicon. There is a grimly souless malaise taking root in British journalism and nobody seems to really care.

Niemöller...

[davidjay]

You’re correct to highlight the importance of housing provision in relation to immigration. But other services and infrastructure - schools, medical services, and so on - that come under pressure through demand in areas experiencing high volumes of immigrants (or, when we were EU members, nationals of other EU member states exercising treaty rights of free movement) are also important. I always argued that the failure to provide adequate investment in key services in such areas - to meet the increased demand arising from incoming migrant residents is and was a failure of government (which coincidentally provided Farage et al with the ammunition he needed to enable Brexit). It is to be hoped that Labour’s housebuilding programme will begin to address this issue.

On immigration and Labour generally, back in about 2013 when I was a full time Labour Organiser, I recall Ed Miliband telling us all that we had to talk about immigration, because if we didn’t, nobody would listen to what we had to say about anything else. This was when we were viciously excoriated by the Trots, Guardianistas, and others for marketing a policy slogan coffee mug with “Controls on Immigration” printed on it.

Things have changed slightly.

I do wonder what type of immigrants people were most afraid of in 2016 - Eastern Europeans taking our jobs or Asians taking our women. It would have been interesting to find out.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The problem isn't that there aren't enough houses for immigrants, it's that there aren't enough houses for people who are already here. Which is much the same thing but that's where the discontent begins. Somebody's daughter can't get a house because "They're all given to illegals". Which is clearly not true but that's the perception. A decent social housing programme will kick the main strand of Farage's argument from under him. Follow that up with increased NHS and education spending and the country will be a lot happier.

Yes, it's the same point, there's not enough housing in general. Where I'm coming from here is that we've now got a government that seems determined to start catching up. Cameron and Bozo also were determined at one point, but gave in, and I hope that Starmer doesn't. Extra population in that respect is challenging, even with the economic upside.

Extra spending is popular. Extra taxes (except on other people) are not. I think the tax rises are an overlooked reason for Labour being unpopular at the moment. I think they'll have to do more though, and perhaps that might not actually see them fall much further. Hopefully in 4 years time, they can run on having made things better.