Mailwatch(ed) Forum

As an aside, I watched some old election coverage from the 60s-70s a while ago. The vox pops cured me of any sense that there was a golden age of mass political discussion. They were mostly terrible.

Coogan's come out for Burnham before but Hugh Grant is an interesting addition. The press will quickly note the two actors are Hacked Off activists.

British acting legend Hugh Grant has been pictured arriving at the community sports club in Makerfield where Andy Burnham is holding an eve-of-poll rally tonight

Actor Hugh Grant was later pictured leaving the Andy Burnham rally in Makerfield tonight.

He's the latest celebrity to appear in the constituency following the likes of Steve Coogan, who was supporting Mr Burnham, and Ant Middleton who lent his support to Reform's Rob Kenyon.
https://www.facebook.com/share/1G1oSM4go2/

Youngian wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:50 pm

As an aside, I watched some old election coverage from the 60s-70s a while ago. The vox pops cured me of any sense that there was a golden age of mass political discussion. They were mostly terrible.

Ha ha. The vox pops were like that. I get that women, and working class people generally, weren't really encouraged to speak, so I don't want to be harsh on the vox poppers.

RedSparrows wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:05 pm

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 7:11 pm I remember seeing on one of those outtakes shows a vox pop team interviewing people about some recent scientific discovery and did they care. They go up to a big tattooed guy, and he replies eloquently and with enthusiasm, as he explains he's a research student in particle physics or whatever. Clip doesn't get aired.

This is one of the curious things about journos. They must all know the rules of the game. And yet they all act like Salt of the Earth types look, sound and think a very definite way, and everyone else is irrelevant. Do they just not put 2+2? Or do they not care?

You are implying honesty and integrity where none exists.

RedSparrows wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:05 pm

This is one of the curious things about journos. They must all know the rules of the game. And yet they all act like Salt of the Earth types look, sound and think a very definite way, and everyone else is irrelevant. Do they just not put 2+2? Or do they not care?

There are a lot of journalists who are basically storytellers. Reporting the facts isn't enough, instead they have to be contextualised. Wrapped up in a neat package. But nothing too original, so you get the payoff - you know the sort of thing, the pun (visual or verbal) that signs off the article. The event repackaged into a predetermined narrative. The little people against the system.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:41 pm I was featured on a vox pop on BBC Midlands in 2024, being vaguely nice about the Green Party.

Were you the fat bloke with the crew cut and the spiders web neck tattoo ?

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 9:10 pm

Youngian wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:50 pm

As an aside, I watched some old election coverage from the 60s-70s a while ago. The vox pops cured me of any sense that there was a golden age of mass political discussion. They were mostly terrible.

Ha ha. The vox pops were like that. I get that women, and working class people generally, weren't really encouraged to speak, so I don't want to be harsh on the vox poppers.

BBC4 showed the 1964 election coverage featuring quality vox pops. And yes people were wearing bowler hats or in dungarees on the shop floor.
There was a know it all shop steward at Dagenham who made it clear he was there to represent his members and wasn't interested in politics. He then gave his opinions on everything from prices and incomes policies to nuclear detente.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 9:54 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:41 pm I was featured on a vox pop on BBC Midlands in 2024, being vaguely nice about the Green Party.

Were you the fat bloke with the crew cut and the spiders web neck tattoo ?

Ha ha. I was outside the sports shop in Ledbury, if that helps.

I had Lindsey Hilsum stick a mic and a camera in my face the last time I was on delegate duty at a Labour conference, back in 2023. Right before the leader's speech.

The constituency PPC and I were just leaning on the railings on the bank of the Mersey, enjoying the ambience. I suspect that she was looking at the bloke in the suit and the woman with the army surplus parka, the wide-brimmed hat and the lanyard full of mostly LGBTQ+ pin badges (very much advertising myself as on the left of the party, and not bothered who noticed) and expecting to get something rude about Starmer.

The PPC made his excuses and bolted, whilst I responded calmly, politely, and didn't fall into the obvious bear traps in the questioning.

It didn't get used.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 10:14 pm

Abernathy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 9:54 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:41 pm I was featured on a vox pop on BBC Midlands in 2024, being vaguely nice about the Green Party.

Were you the fat bloke with the crew cut and the spiders web neck tattoo ?

Ha ha. I was outside the sports shop in Ledbury, if that helps.

I notice you have avoided the question .

This is the polling

Lab 49% - Ref 37% - Convergent (2/06-12/06)
Lab 45% - Ref 40% - More in Common (28/05 - 12/06)
Lab 46% - Ref 41% - Opinium (03/06 - 11/06)
Lab 49% - Ref 39% - Survation (26/05 - 01/06)
Lab 43% - Ref 40% - Survation (18/05 - 22/05)

Survation at least followed up there data so we have a trend and that seems to match when more focus on Kenyon came out. Opinium are probably the most established polling but Survation isn't bad, Convergent don't do a lot I believe and MiC usually underestimate Labour, sample size is around 500-600 which is standard for this type of polling.

Oddly Find out Now who seem unreliable (And poll higher for Reform) are usually all over these by elections (They've been wrong twice) seemed to not report back here. Which probably tells more about them than we already know.

Restore are around 5-8% and that hasn't really shown an increase or decrease. No doubt their number could be the difference here but I noted Convergent had 5% for the Greens so I can see that being squeezed.

I expect Andy will win here. Labour are 1/10 here with Reform 8/1 so even the Bookies have it down, I am not a fan of what Andy has done and if there was a challenge from Lib Dem or Greens I wouldn't be against them winning like in Gorton but sadly its Labour or Reform and so it has to be Labour for me.

Labour need to win by a margin greater than the Restore vote.
If the margin is less, it's likely to unite the far-right in future as Reform will be able to claim Restore won it for Labour - they will of course ignore the votes cast for the Greens and LibDems which could* have been cast for Labour.

*I'm assuming that most LibDem and Green voters would prefer a Labour win to Reform but I may be wrong about that.

Agreed. I'll accept there are people who will vote Reform because they want 'change', or are out of patience and faith with the mainstream. Restore on the other hand are dyed in the wool cunts and proud of it.

Assuming a Labour win, the message going forward has to be "We understand the severity and complexity of the problems we face, and we understand that quick fixes won't work. We're taking this seriously, as are the people of Makerfield. Now let's sort this out together."

Reform chasing Restore’s voters could bolster tactical voting against them and chisel away at their tally.

The Ego won with 24,937 votes. Kenyon got 15,696 whilst Restore got 3,111 votes.

Now the shit and mither begins.

Farage did a runner pretty early I hear. Restore aren't helping them but I do think Reform have peaked, and them being in government after next election certainly isn't as bolted on as the media seem to treat it. Decent turnout tends to fuck them.

Yeah not even the same ball park there.

Reform aren’t great at this by election lark and let’s be honest these are by elections they should be winning.

They are not for instance University areas. Polls actually did get Restore right. Though I’m sure that Voxpop was talking them up.

Three lost deposits: Tories, Greens and Lib Dems.

I hope Burnham's going to use his comms skills to sell many existing Labour policies which are popular.
Aberdeen South decided overwhelmingly to choose the Tory as the drill baby drill candidate over Reform. SNP held Arbroath so the Aberdeen result is something on a outlier but the Tories will have reasons to be cheerful as Reform haven't knocked them out.
A really terrible night for Farage. Labour need to kick him while he's down.

Samanfur wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 7:30 am Three lost deposits: Tories, Greens and Lib Dems.

Be interesting to know how many Tories held their nose and voted for Burnham as Kenyon and Reform even look ghastly to them.