Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 7:34 pm John's an asset. I hope he gets back soon.

He's a good man but Labour have done next to no canvassing in the ward.

Tory seat losses are now 484.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 9:18 pm

Illustrating the futility of rolling news and services like twitter.

Yup spot on.

If anything it’s shown up Matthew Goodwin for what he actually is

The centre right are not afraid to desert the Tories for the LDs now Corbyn’s not a back door threat. And with increased Labour tactical voting, their good night at the polls shouldn’t be a surprise.

Cambridge is a quirky outlier as there’s no prospect of Tories being elected on the council so Labour is forced into a full on bun fight with the LDs and Greens.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 11:00 pm The centre right are not afraid to desert the Tories for the LDs now Corbyn’s not a back door threat. And with increased Labour tactical voting, their good night at the polls shouldn’t be a surprise.

Given what happened in 2015, where lots of Lib Dems went to UKIP and the Tories, I think we have to be a bit wary of counting their votes as part of any progressive alliance. There'll be dustbin moaners and, increasingly I think, "protect our green belt" voters in the South.

A striking example of this, admittedly from 2019, was Chelmsford. Lib Dems made huge gains in the council, and took control. They lost the Westminster seat on the same day by 17,000.

I don't know if Somerset has the same development pressures as the South East. Are people in Bridgewater worried about giant blocks of flats appearing? I don't know how the Lib Dems campaigned there.

The education secretary, Nadhim Zahawi, has been on the broadcast media today insisting Boris Johnson remains an electoral asset and urging his fellow Tory MPs not to act against him over the party’s local election results.

Speaking on Sky News, he said: “If you look at the way that Boris cuts through in places like Nuneaton, places like Newcastle-under-Lyme, other parts of the country as well – Harrow in London.

The "cut through" in Harrow might not be easily replicable in other parts of the country, I fear.

Subtly calling those places shitholes. Classy.

Not sure the idea that votes count more in poorer areas is particularly tenable for Tories.

Would Mrs Thatcher have won a single election?

They did well in Newcastle Under Lyme, but it had all the seats up for election. The Tories must be highly thankful that wasn't true of a few dsttricts in the Home Counties.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 12:23 pm I don't know if Somerset has the same development pressures as the South East. Are people in Bridgewater worried about giant blocks of flats appearing? I don't know how the Lib Dems campaigned there.

From what I know of Bridgwater there's a lot of demand for housing because of the Hinckley Point development.

That's interesting. There's a fair bit of poverty in Bridgewater, judging by this list.

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/som ... eas-925906

Rural Somerset is pretty grim if you're poor. Fuck all to do, and lots of rich buggers ramping up the house prices.

Bit like Cornwall and Devon (away from the cities).

Was Harrow being well run? I know most of the issues in Croydon seems to be down to the fact it’s run a bit poorly.

Tower Hamlets has hurt Labour gains in London but it’s all Independent gain.

So, it seems there are probably two ways to view the results overall:

a) the pessimistic take - beyond London, the Labour numbers were a bit underwhelming bar a handful of notable exceptions, with the Red Wall still a worry
b) the optimistic take - the Tories are in big trouble now, with an enormous anti-Tory coalition starting to take shape across much of the country

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 5:44 pm Rural Somerset is pretty grim if you're poor. Fuck all to do, and lots of rich buggers ramping up the house prices.

Edit- I said initially the poor probably lived in the towns, not the rural bit. Using the tool below (click to smaller areas) it shows lots of poor bits in rural West Somerset.

This is great btw. Type in constituency and it gives you a ranking. We're 304 in North Herefordshire.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/co ... privation/