Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 9:04 pm

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 9:03 pm Labour did take two council seats in Redbridge today quite comfortably.

Interesting.

Dunno if they were holds or gains, assume the latter but they were pretty comfortable can’t find them now anyhow guess we will see.

Problem Bailey has even if he closes in, there are still a couple of North East type seats to come and he is probably maxing his vote out on first preferences.

Gammons and Fox aren’t getting anything decent and nether is Brian Rose, whilst I would suspect the LD would break evenly if not more to Labour.

Then of course the Green vote which from what I’ve seen and heard will have broken well, be interesting what happens in Wandsworth.

Bailey is behind Khan on first and second preferences in West End Central. Did Goldsmith beat Khan on those?

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 9:15 pm Bailey is behind Khan on first and second preferences in West End Central. Did Goldsmith beat Khan on those?

Khan polled 55,329 and 19,958
Goldsmith polled 70,490 and 14,493.

I thought Bailey was ahead by about 2k on first, but yeah second preferences he is out done by 4k

Just noticed the second preferences are listed, Khan out does them in the 3 out of 4, Bexley and Bromley he has a sizeable shift. Wish London elects would put the north east and Ealing up, the latter will probably confirm it.

Bailey surprisingly close v Khan in Harrow and Brent. 2k down after second preferences.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 9:26 pm Bailey surprisingly close v Khan in Harrow and Brent. 2k down after second preferences.

That one is a concern, but it’s kind of cancelled out by West Central. You do wonder if that’s the impact of the congestion and emissions stuff.

Fair point

There may be some, er, demographic factors at work v Khan in Harrow. Bob Blackman, the Tory MP, has played at not at all identity politics, and outperformed his party.

Starmer might not have done much right this week, but he clocked Kashmir as an issue that could give him unnecessary electoral problems. The world doesn't much care from the UK PM says about it, let alone the UK Leader of the Opposition.

Tories have done well in Havering and Bailey has doubled the lead Goldsmith had over Khan however he is over 100k clear in North East on second preference.

Might tot it up and see how it transfers currently if they were to all transfer which I would assume so, can’t be many Khan/Bailey transfers.

So Bailey lost (though not by much after second preferences) in Ealing and Hillingdon. Tories did quite well there though.

Think the Tories probably hold Johnson's seat in the General Election pretty easily next time. Remember that nonsense in 2019?

Goldsmith was 10k up on first and second preference in West Central.

This is a very good site, with earlier years in. Give them some nice feedback.

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-vote ... sults-2021

I suppose lots of people in London won't know much about Bailey Vaccine and reopening bounce here to?. Not that they've done particularly well.

Roughly worked it as the following if all second preferences (and there will be some Bailey/Khan) ones then it’s currently

680, 620 - Khan
594,572 - Bailey

Basically a 54/46 split

Currently 39/37

However I said before that the split tomorrow should favour Khan more, these were roughly the differences in the wards last time, things haven’t been too different this time just closer margins then you assume Khan will win edging to a 56/57 to 44/43, roughly what it was against Goldsmith.

Barnet and Camden - 2k Khan
City and East - 70k Khan
Croydon and Sutton - 10k Goldsmith
Enfield and Harringey - 60k Khan
Greenwich and Lewisham - 50k Khan
Merton and Wandsworth - 10k Khan
South West - 17k Goldsmith

Cheers.

Wonder if the Tories could regain Barnet and Camden constituency seat?

Bit better by Bailey than expected. Though the Tories were right to pull funding, he'd not have got won whatever.

16k majority, Corbyn factor gone you wouldn’t assume it, Greens also polled around 16k so it will be tough in my view.

I actually think that might be a better margin for Labour, they’ve been targeting this area which is the South West hard, be intriguing to see if it bears better results.

That's reassuring. Though the incumbent Labour AM has retired.

What is it with the Lib Dems? Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats was bad enough, but I see in the past they ran on Caroline Pigeon's Liberal Democrats. Pigeon is OK, but she's not exactly a household name.

Hardly seen the Lib Dem’s and there is a serious lack of placards around here, Teddington has its fair share but I think Labour out number them in Kingston.

Considering it’s Davey’s seat it’s pretty shocking. Then again the council aren’t too popular, though the Tories don’t seem to have much presence on my walks either (zero).

A couple of AM’s today had stood down dunno if it matters, wouldn’t have a clue who ran here last time though I did move mid campaign from Wimbledon.

“Southwest” in London is going be interesting, appears there is a 1% in it as they stopped updating at 90%, Goldsmith won by 27k votes looks like the Tory will take the regional but it doesn’t bode well the Tories this side of London.

The Labour candidate is 2% behind the Lib Dem’s (who is 28/32) in an area where I don’t think we have if any Labour presence, certainly nothing strong.

Tories have held South West. Other seats holds too. Khan beats Bailey on 1st and 2nd combined