Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Tice is claiming that Reform did so badly because so many of their voters voted tactically for Burnham because they want to boost the prospects of ousting Keir Starmer as prime minister.

I think he is substantially over-estimating the intelligence quotient of the average Reform voter.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 10:09 am Tice is claiming that Reform did so badly because so many of their voters voted tactically for Burnham because they want to boost the prospects of ousting Keir Starmer as prime minister.

I think he is substantially over-estimating the intelligence quotient of the average Reform voter.

I can see Tories doing that but not their bastard offspring.

Especially as, as I've pointed out before, we know what people think Burnham's win means for Starmer. We don't know what the actual relationship between them is, or what will transpire. A lot of political reporting focuses on who hates who, and all the other dramatic soap opera bits, because the boring side - people working together to get things done - isn't half as glamorous.

Besides, surely a rock solid red wall oop north seat flipping to RefUk would be just as big a warning to the beleaguered PM that his days were numbered?

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 10:09 am Tice is claiming that Reform did so badly because so many of their voters voted tactically for Burnham because they want to boost the prospects of ousting Keir Starmer as prime minister.

I think he is substantially over-estimating the intelligence quotient of the average Reform voter.

Looking at the vote breakdown, I think it could be that Reform (a) may have hit their ceiling, outside of context-specific protest vote shenanigans and (b) having cannibalised the Tory vote, are now themselves being cannibalised by Rupert Lowe’s bunch o’cunts.

Neither thing being something that Tice would want to admit.

Pochin claimed Burnham will join the Euro. Astonishingly this didn’t lead to a Reform victory.

Expect a shadow-tanker full of Cope.

Once the dust has settled, I'd like to see a comparison of the polling predictions against the actual result.

Partly, I'm a scientist / engineer and value the feedback loop.
I'd also like to see the "pollsters" who simply pull figures out of their Matt Goodwin shaped arsehole properly measured.

Bones McCoy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 11:32 am Once the dust has settled, I'd like to see a comparison of the polling predictions against the actual result.

Partly, I'm a scientist / engineer and value the feedback loop.
I'd also like to see the "pollsters" who simply pull figures out of their Matt Goodwin shaped arsehole properly measured.

It’s ironically another by election that’s show Labour underestimated and Reform over estimated which makes me wonder.

About 4-5 pts again so outside of sample error. As for voting Burnham to remove Starmer, Tice can’t lie well.