Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Tice is claiming that Reform did so badly because so many of their voters voted tactically for Burnham because they want to boost the prospects of ousting Keir Starmer as prime minister.

I think he is substantially over-estimating the intelligence quotient of the average Reform voter.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 10:09 am Tice is claiming that Reform did so badly because so many of their voters voted tactically for Burnham because they want to boost the prospects of ousting Keir Starmer as prime minister.

I think he is substantially over-estimating the intelligence quotient of the average Reform voter.

I can see Tories doing that but not their bastard offspring.

Especially as, as I've pointed out before, we know what people think Burnham's win means for Starmer. We don't know what the actual relationship between them is, or what will transpire. A lot of political reporting focuses on who hates who, and all the other dramatic soap opera bits, because the boring side - people working together to get things done - isn't half as glamorous.

Besides, surely a rock solid red wall oop north seat flipping to RefUk would be just as big a warning to the beleaguered PM that his days were numbered?

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 10:09 am Tice is claiming that Reform did so badly because so many of their voters voted tactically for Burnham because they want to boost the prospects of ousting Keir Starmer as prime minister.

I think he is substantially over-estimating the intelligence quotient of the average Reform voter.

Looking at the vote breakdown, I think it could be that Reform (a) may have hit their ceiling, outside of context-specific protest vote shenanigans and (b) having cannibalised the Tory vote, are now themselves being cannibalised by Rupert Lowe’s bunch o’cunts.

Neither thing being something that Tice would want to admit.

Pochin claimed Burnham will join the Euro. Astonishingly this didn’t lead to a Reform victory.

Expect a shadow-tanker full of Cope.

Once the dust has settled, I'd like to see a comparison of the polling predictions against the actual result.

Partly, I'm a scientist / engineer and value the feedback loop.
I'd also like to see the "pollsters" who simply pull figures out of their Matt Goodwin shaped arsehole properly measured.

Bones McCoy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 11:32 am Once the dust has settled, I'd like to see a comparison of the polling predictions against the actual result.

Partly, I'm a scientist / engineer and value the feedback loop.
I'd also like to see the "pollsters" who simply pull figures out of their Matt Goodwin shaped arsehole properly measured.

It’s ironically another by election that’s show Labour underestimated and Reform over estimated which makes me wonder.

About 4-5 pts again so outside of sample error. As for voting Burnham to remove Starmer, Tice can’t lie well.

Really, journos need to be shown the Alan Partridge by-election special as a guide on how not to do it.

Meanwhile, who is this guy? Looks and sounds like Mike Graham's identical twin.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 7:38 am

Samanfur wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 7:30 am Three lost deposits: Tories, Greens and Lib Dems.

Be interesting to know how many Tories held their nose and voted for Burnham as Kenyon and Reform even look ghastly to them.

That did astonish me, when was the last time the Tories lost their deposit?

Oboogie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 1:45 pm That did astonish me, when was the last time the Tories lost their deposit?

The Gorton & Denton By-election. They only secured 1.9% of the vote there.

Spoonman wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 1:55 pm

Oboogie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 1:45 pm That did astonish me, when was the last time the Tories lost their deposit?

The Gorton & Denton By-election. They only secured 1.9% of the vote there.

Of course they did, how could I have forgotten that?* Doh! Thanks.

* In my defence, I was up shouting at the radio most of the night.

Would Badenoch be the first Tory leader to lose two deposits in a row or at all?

It's actually for Labour generally a good result, increased majority and from someone who is being talked as leader.

Regardless of the circus around it.

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 2:43 pm Would Badenoch be the first Tory leader to lose two deposits in a row or at all?

They weren't in a row, the glorious victory for the Drill, Baby, Drill party in Aberdeen South, as well as the result in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry were announced before Makerfield.

The magnificent Kemi was the real winner last night.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2026 11:11 am Pochin claimed Burnham will join the Euro. Astonishingly this didn’t lead to a Reform victory.

I heard someone (I've forgotten who) explaining that, without changing our fiscal rules, we're not eligible to join the Euro even if we wanted to.
Plus Burnham has flip-flopped on joining the EU, I'm not sure what his current line is.
Pochin is talking bollocks as usual.

Pochin: the gift that keeps on giving.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... makerfield

I actually think that was a depressingly ok performance by Reform. They won’t always have candidates with the baggage this one did, and even he might have got away with it in a general election. Are we sure Rupert Lowe is going to run everywhere in a general election?

I know it’s one of their best seats but 34.5% is still a lot.