Mailwatch(ed) Forum

It really wouldn’t surprise me if Labour win it, they will likely have the best data of the three parties and none of the opinion polls would give me confidence.

Also “energetic” campaigns, every time I see anything about their campaigns they seem to be having issues.

I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 23, 2026 5:19 pm I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

It could also be that the tide's turning for his ratings.

I see the Greens going to be debating a motion that Zionism is racism, calling the overwhelming majority* of the population racists may not be the vote winner they think it is.

* figures for the population are hard to find - presumably because it's such a fringe position -, but even among the young, only 21% say Israel has no right to exist.

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/twenty-on ... t-s9yf1ws6

This won't get much attention. The Greens are doing their job, taking votes from Labour.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 23, 2026 5:19 pm I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

Again probably suggests the data is better than that opinion poll more in line with that predicator on Britain elects which did actually underperform Labour in Runcorn but had a really good record in the last government.

mattomac wrote: ↑Mon Feb 23, 2026 10:19 pm

Abernathy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 23, 2026 5:19 pm I see that Starmer has been to Gorton today, in advance of polling day on Thursday. Very unusual for a party leader, especially one serving as PM, to visit a by-election at all.

Looks like Labour isn’t giving this one up without a fight.

Again probably suggests the data is better than that opinion poll more in line with that predicator on Britain elects which did actually underperform Labour in Runcorn but had a really good record in the last government.

I've helpfully forgotten the details but Phil Moorhouse of ADifferentBias reckons that there's only been one poll for G&D by a reputable pollster* and that indicated a Labour lead. I think the fact Starmer's prepared to put his name to it indicates that Labour's intel reckons they're in with a shout - we'll find out if they're right on Friday.

* as opposed to the gaslighting fake ones shared by the Greens.

Even if the Green surge is real, Labour mobilising to reduce Reform to third place is still important.

Kezia Dugdale was on the radio earlier pointing out that as a former party organiser, a party leader or PM turning up at your by-election campaign is a huge headache. It distracts your workers, there's extra work to be done in reconnoitering venues and routes etc and co-ordinating timings with the leader's staff and so on.

So Starmer turning up in Gorton in the final week signals a couple of things :

It points up the importance of this by-election in terms of stopping Reform UK.
It probably means we are confident that we have the necessary promises to win and know where they are. It's now just a question of getting the vote out. I expect the GOTV effort to be mahoosive.

Another thing to note in passing is that Starmer had what appeared to be a quite convivial tete a tete with Burnham while he was there. Make of that what you will, but I'd view it as a positive.

A veteran party agent recalled David Blunkett turning up to canvass for a by-election with a megaphone but he refused to accept this is old hat and voters now dislike them intensely. So they drove Blunkett around some fields.

Full Fact have been doing their thing all over the data being circulated

https://fullfact.org/politics/gorton-an ... -round-up/

There's a part of me that thinks they're tempting fate and another part of me thinks they've got data to back this claim up.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 8:34 pm they've got data to back this claim up.

It's pretty stupid if they haven't.

My man on the ground thinks Labour with a greatly reduced majority. Gorton will vote Reform, Denton will get Green amongst the 6th form debating societies but the majority Asians will probably stay with Labour.

ReFuck are up in court today over breaches of electoral law (iffy leaflets). If they lose, they could be barred - much crossing out to follow.

Some suggest this is what they want: play the victim, we wuz robbed, stitch up by the establishment, when we get in we'll abolish the electoral commission.

I remember a really big creep in politics who wore the sheep's clothing of a mainstream centre right minister but was really a slightly sinister ideologue headbanger. Perhap Ms Vine can recall him.

'Slightly'?

There was also Johnson who she backed several times.

I do dislike any populist, I've read enough history to note this, and I see Zack as that but Vine can't take any moral high ground.

Another poll out which puts Greens and Labour neck and neck with Reform 2 points back. The poll suggests Greens are more likely to vote but I would be wary of this as postal votes will already have gone in and I've always said a party that sees an uptick in that period usually wins. That seems to be Labour.

I guess we will see.

I'm lost knowing which polls to trust:

It isn't helped by:
* The GB News crowd having their own polls (Courtesy of one M. Goodwin).
* Greens doing the old LibDem "Only we can beat (latest bugbear) in (constituency)" schtick.

I don't like in the constituency.
I pity the voters who are trying to make the right choice with this lack of reliable information.