Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Interesting polling on Starmer's speech. Support for the sentiment that "without fair immigration rules {which wasn't all he was saying] Britain risks becoming a nation of strangers" was 57% among Lib Dem voters.

They've still got a surprisingly large number of not particularly liberal voters, kept on board no doubt by a variety of things. Lots of their switchers, from memory, in 2024 were fairly conservative, often Brexit supporting "just get the Tories out" types, and they can likely get more next time if they campaign in more places. I suppose it's one reason Davey sometimes reaches for the sort of issues we've identified on this thread to stay relevant, rather than a more avowedly liberal approach.

Nice to have political pressure from this direction, on both EU policy and benefits, but this sounds dubious.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ax-revenue

Lib Dems claim deeper trade deal with EU would raise £25bn of tax revenue
Deal that stops short of joining customs union or single market could pay for reversing benefit cuts, party says

The logic must be £25bn (over how long?) over and above whatever Labour agrees. Have to see what that is, but leaks have been about alignment, role for the ECJ, not letting fishing wag the dog. What else is there? I sense another "pay for our latest policy by cracking down on tax avoidance" here. "Well, we'd have pursued a more ambitious EU deal, Jeremy".

In fairness, it's not their analysis, it's Best For Britain, but I'm still suspicious. Very notable that the Lib Dems still aren't going near the Single Market, which probably would fund a lot of their stuff.

I regret to tell you that Ed Davey's back on to "the Commonwealth". I thought India was in the Commonwealth myself, and that we've agreed a trade deal with them. As we have with the EU.

By all means call for the UK to support this position. But it ill behoves someone who professes to be a sane internationalist to talk like foreigners are all waiting for the UK to lead them. Is this actually a serious proposal or just a way of crow barring in "Labour sucking up to Trump" for the BTL?

Surprised Davey hasn't latched onto an audacious suggestion coming out of the Nordic countries for the EU to join the CPTPP. There's certain practical technical difficulties but the Commission, like Starmer, doesn’t think it's a good idea to rile Trump too much. They're still flirting with the idea as a Plan B to concentrate minds in Washington. I bet Carney loves it.

Trump’s trade war pushes EU toward Pacific free traders

During his trip to Singapore last week, von der Leyen’s chief trade negotiator Maroš Šefčovič sought to push forward discussions about “enhanced cooperation” between the EU and the bloc.

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong pitched von der Leyen on the idea in a mid-April call. The two “discussed the potential for closer cooperation between the European Union and the … CPTPP,” https://www.politico.eu/article/donald- ... e-traders/

Starmer is turning into ‘continuity Rishi Sunak’, says Liberal Democrats leader

Exclusive: PM lacks ambition and vision, says Ed Davey in damning assessment of first 12 months in power

This Ed Davey guy sounds like he should be in Government. Oh. Well, there was certainly "vision" when George Osborne was slashing everything to bits, I'll give him that.

It always amazes me just how much people have forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition, even though a lot of our problems have their roots in that period.

Davey has some neck there.

Even on defence, they’re not taking the steps we need and with the foreign agenda where we’re supposed to be doing so well, I don’t think their position on Donald Trump has yielded the sorts of deep results that we need.

Their "position with Donald Trump" seemed to please car exporters and, I'd venture, Ukrainians. What's the "foreign agenda"? Grandstanding about getting the Commonwealth together? A reasonable deal was done with the EU and India. What's his objection to the Defence Review exactly?

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 8:35 pm It always amazes me just how much people have forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition, even though a lot of our problems have their roots in that period.

He's actually backed it all since. And chucked in a further bit of hair shirt rubbish, we should have a current budget surplus in normal times! All achieved with these tax changes.

https://www.tax.org.uk/election-2024-li ... ifesto-tax

Given the fuss they made about a 1.2% increase in Employers NI, what do they think would be the employer response to some of these?

But hey, Ed, I'm sure the country would have swung in behind Starmer if he'd only announced a load more expensive policies quicker. Shame there isn't a "vision" tax.

What's his objection to the Defence Review exactly?

It's going to undo all the Tory cuts.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 9:16 pm Davey has some neck there.

Even on defence, they’re not taking the steps we need and with the foreign agenda where we’re supposed to be doing so well, I don’t think their position on Donald Trump has yielded the sorts of deep results that we need.

Their "position with Donald Trump" seemed to please car exporters and, I'd venture, Ukrainians. What's the "foreign agenda"? Grandstanding about getting the Commonwealth together? A reasonable deal was done with the EU and India. What's his objection to the Defence Review exactly?

Also, if he wants the UK to stand apart from Trump then that would involve defence spending increasing.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 9:24 pm

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 8:35 pm It always amazes me just how much people have forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition, even though a lot of our problems have their roots in that period.

He's actually backed it all since. And chucked in a further bit of hair shirt rubbish, we should have a current budget surplus in normal times! All achieved with these tax changes.

https://www.tax.org.uk/election-2024-li ... ifesto-tax

Given the fuss they made about a 1.2% increase in Employers NI, what do they think would be the employer response to some of these?

Or as the Lib Dems call it a jobs tax.

They may have a point about that. We'll have to see how the figures go. Everyone calls it a jobs tax till they have to impose it because alternatives are even more unpopular(Reeves did)

Daisy Cooper blames the growth figures for May on the jobs tax.

Which one? There's been so many...

The alternative would have been a tax on peoples pay packets.

Manufacturing was sluggish which suggests it wasn't, I'd expect a bit better than this poor analysis from the LDs anyhow.

Jobs Tax strikes again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg754negn75o

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper said the government must "must go for growth by reversing the jobs tax which is stifling small businesses".

It may have bad an effect, but seeing we were told that it wasn't a tax on companies at all, but workers footed the bill for it, I'm skeptical of the extent.

Worth recalling how thin the Lib Dem tax policies were.

https://www.tax.org.uk/election-2024-li ... ifesto-tax

If they think that a 1.2 point NI rise hammers investment, what would raising the rate of CGT to the same as income tax (albeit with an inflation allowance) do? That would give the UK government the highest headline CGT in any major economy. The UK isn't unusual in having lower rates.

>ahem<
'sceptical'