Mailwatch(ed) Forum

It’s Stratford and Urmston tomorrow.

Good spot.

Hard to know what's happening locally, but I'd have thought it wasn't exactly election fever in a very safe seat.

mattomac wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 6:08 pm It’s Stratford and Urmston tomorrow.

I normally like to open a thread for each by-election, but in reality there are some which just don't inspire much discussion because of how one-sided the result is likely to be. Stretford & Urmston will almost certainly be a cakewalk for Labour. I suspect low turnout will end up being the only real talking point ("27% turnout, pathetic from Keith once again!")

There should be some very tasty by-elections coming up next year however, partly due to Johnson sending some of his cronies to the House of Lords.

Can they not hang on till the end of the Parliament?

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:26 pm Can they not hang on till the end of the Parliament?

What! And miss out on two years worth of £332 per day just for turning up? These *are* Tories we're talking about here.

And every one of those seats going red or yellow will be another little stab at the Tory party from Johnson - "Missing me yet?".

Yug wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:26 pm Can they not hang on till the end of the Parliament?

What! And miss out on two years worth of £332 per day just for turning up? These *are* Tories we're talking about here.

They;d get more from remaining MPs, wouldn't they? With very little incentive to do any work.

Still in Parliament
Never lost their seat
Looks good on the headed paper
Bragging rights

No constituents to deal with.
Job for life.
Directorships.
Consultancies.

The list goes on.

Constituents need not be a priority for a retiring MP. If you’re particularly idle, the next candidate from your party would be the one to cop it, not you. You then point to their lower vote and say “See that was my personal vote”

The House of Lords is way more cushy than being an MP. Take a look at Ian Botham for instance. "Trade Envoy to Australia" plus has a number of side grifts
https://members.parliament.uk/members/l ... ents=False

A very encouraging result for Labour, not least because it once again suggests the national polls are broadly accurate at the moment.

Lib Dems lost deposit. I take it Ed Davey and Tim Farron stayed away and in their absence their supporters voted tactically.

I was surprised to see the SDP are still a thing. But then again, judging by their result, they aren't.

I vaguely recall Rod Lidl saying he was a member. Struck me as a talking shop for "classical liberals".

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:22 pm I vaguely recall Rod Lidl saying he was a member. Struck me as a talking shop for "classical liberals".

Its a party for Kippers who aren’t classic liberals. Powelites who like Bennite blank cheques to subsidise shit British Leyland cars. Think Peter Shore.

I taught Peter Shore's son, the tragic one.

Never discussed politics with his dad, he was a bit off-putting...

Great work here by Stats for Lefties.

As somebody says below the line, Corbyn "only" achieved a 0.3% swing v the Tories in Liverpool Walton in 2017- how underwhelming. "Simply a statement of mathematical fact", to coin a phrase.

Brilliant response here from the Stats people here. It's actually a tweet from Tom Harwood, with name cropped out. John Curtice is aware of a concept known as safe seats, and didn't say the swing would be typical.