Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Also, just about filling a small school/church hall - with generously spaced out seats - is not a ‘fantastic turnout’

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:25 am I’d be surprised if reform finished second,

Tories will go even more cranky to claw their vote back. We might see the first GE where the government is not battling the official opposition but a fringe party.

To some extent that happened in 1997, with all the concern they had for the Referendum Party.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:37 am

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:25 am I’d be surprised if reform finished second,

Tories will go even more cranky to claw their vote back. We might see the first GE where the government is not battling the official opposition but a fringe party.

Yup if they lose these two it’s going be interesting to see how they react. Especially if the reform vote starts to show up.

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:00 pm

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:37 am

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:25 am I’d be surprised if reform finished second,

Tories will go even more cranky to claw their vote back. We might see the first GE where the government is not battling the official opposition but a fringe party.

Yup if they lose these two it’s going be interesting to see how they react. Especially if the reform vote starts to show up.

I get the impression that they regard Reform a bit like the Commonwealth, or perhaps Ireland - a younger child going through their rebellious phase but they'll come round and conform eventually.

The Tories won a seat from Labour in my ward in a council by-election. His campaign was relentless in terms of leaflets through the door and post, 3 alone on Wednesday. Means nothing compared to a Parliamentary by-election obviously but it is a reminder not to write them off. Reform won't finish close to them in a GE. They may take vital votes from them in key areas though.

There is still a Corbyn lag in certain places.

I do think Labour are on the offensive they will do better.

They had this in 2001 and weren’t far off in 2005.

I expect the LD will be squeezed from what I read in this….

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 92855.html

Will it be enough, I think this one is probably the easier of the two with Bone but I guess we will see.

If Labour take this then they are in fact in a better position than say when they would Mid Beds and Tamworth.

AOB wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:47 am The Tories won a seat from Labour in my ward in a council by-election. His campaign was relentless in terms of leaflets through the door and post, 3 alone on Wednesday. Means nothing compared to a Parliamentary by-election obviously but it is a reminder not to write them off. Reform won't finish close to them in a GE. They may take vital votes from them in key areas though.

Was that in Crewe? Someone BTL said the candidate was someone fairly new to politics known locally for owning a motorbike shop. That would probably swing a few by-elections.

Take this as you will.

mattomac wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:47 pm
Will it be enough, I think this one is probably the easier of the two with Bone but I guess we will see.

If Labour take this then they are in fact in a better position than say when they would Mid Beds and Tamworth.

The betting markets agree with you- Labour are 1/12 in Wellingborough and 1/10 in Kingswood.

I think you can make a case that Kingswood is slightly easier. For a start, some of the Tory base will be unimpressed with Skidmore walking out over "green crap". And I've seen stuff online suggesting Kingswood itself is increasingly seen as a crap town. All that could boost Reform. And who knows, maybe a few citizens of nowhere who can't afford Bristol may have moved in. And the majority is 7,000 less than Wellingborough.

The Tory chair doesn't allow replies on Twitter. Shame, I wanted to give him some sincere advice- choose some slogans that don't draw attention to things you've failed to do. But the replies from his verified audience aren't very supportive.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:35 pm Take this as you will.

As I've said many a time, "Give someone else a chance" has always won elections.

Minus the candidate and the chair, that's 14 people in Wellingborough. Wonder if 10 of them signed her nomination.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:26 pm

AOB wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:47 am The Tories won a seat from Labour in my ward in a council by-election. His campaign was relentless in terms of leaflets through the door and post, 3 alone on Wednesday. Means nothing compared to a Parliamentary by-election obviously but it is a reminder not to write them off. Reform won't finish close to them in a GE. They may take vital votes from them in key areas though.

Was that in Crewe? Someone BTL said the candidate was someone fairly new to politics known locally for owning a motorbike shop. That would probably swing a few by-elections.

It was yes. And he does. His campaign, which wasn't particularly "Tory" in nature, was focussed around the aesthetics of the area such as fly tipping and potholes, and pointing out the Labour candidate lived in Nantwich (which is a couple of miles up the road). His campaign was apparently aided by a Nantwich councillor who previously had a similar taking of a Labour seat.

The Labour group leader apparently retweeted it, there is that too.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:35 pm Take this as you will.

Sounds very similar to the piece I read in the Indie.

I thought the Conservatives had called off any minister going there.

Maybe Holden is so small fry no one would notice him.

I have a feeling both will be won by Labour, Kingswood will have a lot of Bristol commute considering how expensive place has got, I know several people who have gone to live in Somerset to commute in.

This exodus will also hurt the Conservatives in to places like Weston Super Mare. See also those Manchester seats like Bury and Sale.

Yep. People used to move out to commuter towns and vote Tory. No longer, it seems. Worthing is another place like that. And then you have places like Welwyn Hatfield, which Labour won pre-"citizens of nowhere" in 1997 and 2001. I think Labour will be very competitive there.

Similar to the good folk of Northern Ireland fancying a day out in Dublin, the home counties population (at least parts of it) got quite used to popping over on the Eurostar for a weekend in Paris or Amsterdam. A lot more difficult now, and they may well hear the "Tories with diversity quotas" jibes and think "OK, so that means same tax burden and less cuntery - well, I can cope with the former, and the latter was getting disturbing, let's give Labour a shot".

I was assuming that London couldn't get any worse for the Tories, especially with ULEZ to shore them up in Outer London. But you're right, it could. I wonder if the Kent end of London could swing a fair bit, with Reform taking a chunk and a few more citizens of nowhere than there were before. But there are very big majorities there.

Could this happen?