Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Greens are becoming a bit like Lib Dems in local elections (and my constituency in the General Election in 2024, of course) in that they can get votes from almost anywhere by working hard. Hard to see how this coalition lasts in the longer term, but like the Lib Dems, the lower profile means that the internal; coalition can be more stable than the range of opinions might suggest. "Not those houses, not there" can do a lot of work. Miliband and Starmer have been attacking the Greens on this sort of stuff, and I think they're right to do so.

Has Lembit there noticed that lots of votes for Reform aren't replacing Labour at all, but replacing Kemi, if not in terms of 2024 votes, but in terms of where the Opposition might reasonably be after the new government had raised taxes and cut populist freebies. It may not be entirely bad news for Labour. Though that does sound a bit like the strategy that bit Ed Milliband on the arse.

The Greens are like the Lib Dems in that there's a tendency to think of them as our reserves, who we can call on in an emergency. 2010 should have
taught the folly of that idea.

I'd take this.

I wonder if Reform candidates and their voters have complex and subtle thoughts

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 9:06 pm I'd take this.

I think that’d be a great result.

Well, Reform have taken their first seat... from Labour.

From Professor Sir John Curtice;

In the first result of the night, a district council by-election in Hartlepool (Throston Ward), Reform have won with 58.3% of the vote, up 42.1 points on 2024.

They take the seat from Labour who, on 31.8%, were down 30.7 points on 2024.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 11:19 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 9:06 pm I'd take this.

I think that’d be a great result.

It's not going to happen, though.

If the Tories predictably respond to their dismal performance last night by moving further to the right, they jeopodise whatever moderate leaning vote they still have left.
Labour should be pleased with those electoral implications and Ed Davey certainly will.

Well... looks like my purely tactical vote to keep Jenkyns out failed

Has Jenkyns enough powers to do much damage? Civil servants will present some pratical plans she won't understand and will just tick off.
Moaning about solar panels and immigrants for four years isn't going to make much impact.

Hopefully not. Pity they can't just dump her in a ball pond for four years and walk away.

Am hunkering down for the usual 'most of the country clearly don't want Faragist hellscape nonsense going by the very election results that we're screaming about, but because Reform did well it's A Changing of the Guard and The Real People Have Spoken and Just How Does Labour Respond to Such An Astonishing, Unprecedented and Amazing Thing [let us simulataneously gape at Reform's success and forget UKIP, the Brexit Party and never once consider why Reform only does well in very specific areas and very specific demographics that for any other party would be seen as a significant weakness]????'

If Labour can't send Farage packing they probably don't have what it takes. Try:
1) If the EU offer Libya a huge amount of cash to host asylum processing centres, Starmer may wish to chip and sign a new 'send 'em back' treaty with France. Labour acts while Reform shit stir.
2) Start explaining to people who don't like increased global immigration, lower public spending and higher taxes that Brexit and ultimately Farage is responsible.
3) Look at the state of Trump's administration, do you want that here? Farage supports deposing King Charles in Canada and placing it under US occupation.
4) Farage made pro Russian anti NATO speeches while our brave boys are serving on the front line in Poland and Estonia. Not quite a traitor but near enough.
Anything else?

The EU deal ought to help Labour. Let Farage bore on about the European Court of Justice and fishing, doesn't he want to make it easier to export food?

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri May 02, 2025 10:44 am If Labour can't send Farage packing they probably don't have what it takes. Try:
1) If the EU offer Libya a huge amount of cash to host asylum processing centres, Starmer may wish to chip and sign a new 'send 'em back' treaty with France. Labour acts while Reform shit stir.
2) Start explaining to people who don't like increased global immigration, lower public spending and higher taxes that Brexit and ultimately Farage is responsible.
3) Look at the state of Trump's administration, do you want that here? Farage supports deposing King Charles in Canada and placing it under US occupation.
4) Farage made pro Russian anti NATO speeches while our brave boys are serving on the front line in Poland and Estonia. Not quite a traitor but near enough.
Anything else?

My wife has had a running battle with a local Reform supporting FB group for the last 2 years about all of this and more. She can quote as many facts as she can find but it makes precisely no impact whatsoever. The bottom line is that these people are utterly convinced the root cause of ALL of the country's problems are "the dinghy people" (not their actual words use) who are all violent criminals and rapists and that Farage alone will solve the problem. There's nothing that you, me, Starmer or anyone could say to change their minds. They are all in with Farage and any criticism is met with bucket loads of abuse and the doubling down of the hero worship for him. 'Cult' doesn't really do their devotion to him justice.

I'm pleasantly surprised Labour held the Doncaster mayoralty. I presume that was helped by reopening the airport.

Runcorn's got the big carbon capture project coming and that might help Labour longer term there. Then again industry and infrastructure didn't win Kamala Harris any votes.

Doncaster voted in a populist gobshite clown for mayor a few years back from the English Democrats (Kippers who hate Jock, Taffy and Paddy as well as Krauts and Frogs). Maybe not enough people fancied someone from the same mold.

They are going to shat themselves when they find out what running a country council actually involves

Reform have an enormous majority in Staffordshire now. Won 49 seats, including 43 from the Tories.

The Greens won 1 seat, the same as Labour, Lib Dems none. This doesn't suggest to me a progressive surge waiting to happen.