Mailwatch(ed) Forum

That is what you get when you fail to deliver on the ground.

We have seen more door-slamming on Labour candidates during this campaign.

Unpopular prediction: I believe the Conservatives will win the seat, not Reform.

Who is the "we" in your statement? Are you on the ground?

soulboy wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 7:52 am Who is the "we" in your statement? Are you on the ground?

No, but there have been plenty of news reports which have shown voters saying that they are very angry with Labour.

Aaron Bastani on walkabout to meet victims of neoliberalism in Runcorn. Like a bloke who sells golliwog mugs on the market. And as an accurate guess never has or will vote Labour.

Bastani will probably drift to the right.

Demagogues dismantling the rule of law isn't a big deal for Bastani, state capture will make it easier to implement 'real communism.' And can own the libtards in the process.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 1:17 pm Demagogues dismantling the rule of law isn't a big deal for Bastani, state capture will make it easier to implement 'real communism.'

I thought he was one of the "luxury communism" brigade, like Ash Sarkar?

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 7:57 am

soulboy wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 7:52 am Who is the "we" in your statement? Are you on the ground?

No, but there have been plenty of news reports which have shown voters saying that they are very angry with Labour.

Well they would, wouldn't they?

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 7:12 am
That is what you get when you fail to deliver on the ground.

We have seen more door-slamming on Labour candidates during this campaign.

Unpopular prediction: I believe the Conservatives will win the seat, not Reform.

I'm amazed they've failed to sort everything out in 9 months, now you mention it.

Well that was disappointing, but insanely close. Shows 2 things though:

* the allegedly inevitable Labour total collapse didn’t happen - and in the circumstances of the former MP decking someone, that’s pretty remarkable
* the Tories are absolutely fucked

Six votes. Well the blame game has begun according to LabourList.

https://labourlist.org/2025/05/runcorn- ... lame-game/

Well that was inevitable. But if they act on the feedback - looking again at the benefit cuts - then all good. And though Farage will be crowing, I think it’s worth pointing out that with a government coming off the back of some unpopular policies, a local MP who chinned someone, a Tory party who have absolutely shat the bed, perfect weather, and a candidate who was known locally and had previously been a Tory so had some personal draw, and the usual effect of people using local elections to protest vote, they effectively couldn’t do better than drawing level.

That’s not how the media will spin it, but it is the reality.

Oh god, the discourse.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 7:49 pm

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 7:12 am
That is what you get when you fail to deliver on the ground.

We have seen more door-slamming on Labour candidates during this campaign.

Unpopular prediction: I believe the Conservatives will win the seat, not Reform.

I'm amazed they've failed to sort everything out in 9 months, now you mention it.

I got this one wrong. I didn't think Reform would win the seat. From an objective point of view, Labour's support collapsed.

Shut up, Triggar.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Fri May 02, 2025 8:38 am Shut up, Triggar.

Actually, it's TRIGGER.

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Fri May 02, 2025 8:27 am I got this one wrong. I didn't think Reform would win the seat. From an objective point of view, Labour's support collapsed.

Again, the media hype and narrative is this, but the facts are not.

Labour lost a quarter of their vote. A big chunk, sure, but not a collapse and not without context (the shenanigans of the outgoing MP). The Tories lost over half of their vote - *that* is a collapse.

If this by-election had been triggered by something non-harmful to the incumbent party, reform would not have won. If the Tories weren’t hell bent on destroying themselves, reform would not have won. If tactical voting had played a bigger role - as seen in GE situations - reform would not have won.

I think today will be a good day to avoid BTL, anywhere. It would have been my father's birthday today so I think a visit to the cemetery is in order.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Fri May 02, 2025 8:54 am

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Fri May 02, 2025 8:27 am I got this one wrong. I didn't think Reform would win the seat. From an objective point of view, Labour's support collapsed.

Again, the media hype and narrative is this, but the facts are not.

Labour lost a quarter of their vote. A big chunk, sure, but not a collapse and not without context (the shenanigans of the outgoing MP). The Tories lost over half of their vote - *that* is a collapse.

If this by-election had been triggered by something non-harmful to the incumbent party, reform would not have won. If the Tories weren’t hell bent on destroying themselves, reform would not have won. If tactical voting had played a bigger role - as seen in GE situations - reform would not have won.

Hasn't stopped the discourse Labour have been utterly defeated and it's the fault of NI rises, PIP and WFA.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Fri May 02, 2025 9:33 am Hasn't stopped the discourse Labour have been utterly defeated and it's the fault of NI rises, PIP and WFA.

So what do you think has caused it? Because something's pissed enough people off to go and put an X against the Reform candidate's name.