Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Right, so Trump won the presidency very easily and is now President Elect . If you believe him, he has already been on the blower to Vladimir Putin (Putin denies this categorically) about Ukraine, and is planning to impose tariffs on all imports to the USA at a blanket rate of 20%.. This puts the UK, and PM Starmer, in an awkward position, given that the UK is looking at the smouldering wreckage of all of its previously available bridges providing easy access to the biggest single market in the world that we had as a member state of the EU. Does Trump's tariff-mania mean that the US market is now as difficult to access for UK exporters as Brexit has made the EU? Will the mythical "special relationship" between the UK and the USA be any help here?

More generally, it is going to be interesting, in a rubber-necking as you drive by a motorway pile-up kind of way, to see exactly how "Project 2025" plays out over the next 4 years. Remember, Trump denied all knowledge of "Project 2025".

The 20% tariff is a threat. Any government that deep throats him enough will get an exemption - for a while. It's basically a global shakedown racket.

It would make sense to look to Europe, but given the readiness of the Brexit mob to sound off, and the inherent Yankeephilia of many of our fellow souls, it would be a very hard sell. Parity, albeit with subtitles, versus being done over rotten but in plain English.

"Yeah, fuck those subtitles, make me 'ead 'urt."

Am I right in thinking that Trump has achieved what was, after all, his principal motivation for running to be elected president again - complete immunity from the host of criminal prosecutions against him that have been accumulating ever since January 2021 ? He has control of the presidency, the house, the senate, and the Supreme Court (which has already ruled that in essence, a US president(i.e. Trump) can do no wrong). It looks very much as if he can do whatever the fuck he likes (and how scary is that ?) . Will all of those charges/prosecutions now either be quietly forgotten about, or at least rendered unviable by statute of limitations by the time Trump’s four year term comes to its end ? He has, it seems, got away with everything. Brace yourselves.

I am increasingly starting to think there may be an element of the Republicans being the dogs that caught the car. Some of this is positive thinking, admittedly, but:

1. This focuses everyone in Europe on the threat of Putin, and stops us relying on the US
2. Europe is actually quite good at making its own kit, and sales to countries looking to avoid Trump tariffs are already producing leads - e.g. SAAB jets and euro
fighters to Brazil
3. Putin is still skint, his army have shitty kit, and the North Koreans aren’t exactly bringing stealth bombers
4. It makes us more likely to increase ties with the EU and vice versa
5. It also makes us more likely to increase trading ties with Asia (bonus: China will want to minimise the damage from Trump tariffs so might make a lot of noise re: Taiwan, but this makes it less likely they will move on it)
6. It could reverse the Brexit brain drain to some extent
7. The people most affected by Trump’s nonsense are going to be in red states, and he will be the incumbent - i.e. the GOP have the most to lose *by far* and seem oblivious to the fact that they could turn their fans against them. There are already numerous stories of buyer’s remorse from people who didn’t think ACA and Obamacare were the same, who have lost bonuses because of companies taking steps to shore themselves up against tariffs etc.
8. They are all incompetent- and I include Musk in that (he just thinks he’s a genius)
9. They are all egomaniacs and will turn on each other.
10. Musk has destroyed Twitter. I honestly don’t think it matters if the EU ignore it - it’s dying on its arse and won’t be anything like the force it is come any future election.

Still going to be a long 4 years, and the Dems really need to work on a comprehensive and attractive offer.

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 4:17 pm Still going to be a long 4 years, and the Dems really need to work on a comprehensive and attractive offer.

It's going to be tough, and whatever steps European governments take to protect themselves will prove initially unpopular.
They'll look like extra government spending with no result.

The early "leopards eating maga faces" stories emerging don't raise much of a smile.
They're mostly about petty family squabbles, and we already know how many Tea Partiers got played.

There's no future in waiting for the Democrats to get their act together.
As littlejohn might say "JFK is still dead".

Keep a calm head.
Be patient.
Be thankful we don't live there.

Yeah, it is undoubtably going to be shit, and considerably moreso for the poor sods in the US itself. But there are silver linings to be had.

Many of those most negatively impacted upon are going to be those most likely to be armed to the teeth.

I am sure that these micro-pockets of desperation can be quelled without too much fuss, but they will prove that Trump's grand con-trick will have its downsides.

I doubt it.

They vote for state-level Republicans who take healthcare away, vote down rises in the minimum wage, etc. Most of these are deeply unimpressive people, with none of the cultish appeal Trump has.

And they'll be told to blame Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, 'liberals', BLM, Ukrainians, the EU, China and climate scientists - everybody in fact except King Donald.

Depressingly, I have to reconsider those possibilities of the brief respite of schadenfreude. Of course, they are too clinically stupid to accept that they have been played for fools in this epic scam.

It's Brexit on steroids. It always was, I suppose.

Another plus (or at least, not so much of a negative) - even if Trump pulls the US from the Paris accords again, China is increasingly reducing its emissions and the US pulling back may encourage it to push even harder to gain an edge in eco tech. It also gives them an advantage over their frenemy, Putin.

Trump is looking at this from the 1980s eyes of JR Ewing, and ignoring the huge investment (a lot of it in red states) and money-making opportunities of Biden’s green new deal. A lot has changed since he was stomping about 8 years ago, and his single-page playbook was dated even then.

One thing puzzling me is Musk inveigling himself into a post in the Trump administration - after making a public arse of himself at The Donald’s campaign rallies.

A not insignificant chunk of Musk’s billions comes from building and selling zero emission electric cars. Trump hates electric cars, dismisses the climate crisis as a hoax, and has promised to “drill, baby, drill”.

Isn’t there a bit of a disconnect there ?

Abernathy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:16 pm One thing puzzling me is Musk inveigling himself into a post in the Trump administration - after making a public arse of himself at The Donald’s campaign rallies.

A not insignificant chunk of Musk’s billions comes from building and selling zero emission electric cars. Trump hates electric cars, dismisses the climate crisis as a hoax, and has promised to “drill, baby, drill”.

Isn’t there a bit of a disconnect there ?

I was saying exactly that to Mrs O'B only last night. Musk is a beneficiary of that woke green nonsense Donny doesn't believe in*.

*doesn't understand

Abernathy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:16 pm One thing puzzling me is Musk inveigling himself into a post in the Trump administration - after making a public arse of himself at The Donald’s campaign rallies.

A not insignificant chunk of Musk’s billions comes from building and selling zero emission electric cars. Trump hates electric cars, dismisses the climate crisis as a hoax, and has promised to “drill, baby, drill”.

Isn’t there a bit of a disconnect there ?

He more than compensates with all his fucking massive rocket ships.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:36 pm I doubt it.

They vote for state-level Republicans who take healthcare away, vote down rises in the minimum wage, etc. Most of these are deeply unimpressive people, with none of the cultish appeal Trump has.

This fits with what an American elsewhere observed Trumpism with Trump doesn't work.

We say green energy, they say sexy new technology.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 3:35 pm I am increasingly starting to think there may be an element of the Republicans being the dogs that caught the car. Some of this is positive thinking, admittedly, but:

1. This focuses everyone in Europe on the threat of Putin, and stops us relying on the US
2. Europe is actually quite good at making its own kit, and sales to countries looking to avoid Trump tariffs are already producing leads - e.g. SAAB jets and euro
fighters to Brazil

5. It also makes us more likely to increase trading ties with Asia (bonus: China will want to minimise the damage from Trump tariffs so might make a lot of noise re: Taiwan, but this makes it less likely they will move on it)

Reminded of the US taking its eye off the ball during their civil war led to European powers flooding into the Western hemisphere like a rat up a drain pipe (America's backyard was not a description the US's neighbours took kindly to). Europe is open to business to Latin America, Caribbean, Africa and Asia.

Conservatives are going to need a bit more time to process US retreat but Labour supporters so far already see a future without America even if they're not dedicated Remainers or anti-imperialist left.

Here’s an interesting one - some new credible research links a child’s chance of developing autism to the pollutants the mother takes in during pregnancy. Or to put it another way, all the antivax freaks could have a new legitimate target in big oil/petrol.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:42 am Here’s an interesting one - some new credible research links a child’s chance of developing autism to the pollutants the mother takes in during pregnancy. Or to put it another way, all the antivax freaks could have a new legitimate target in big oil/petrol.

They won't be turning on the primary source of their funds..