Mailwatch(ed) Forum

This Welfare Bill is turning out to be a right fiasco. Was it really worth it? Changes to PIP kicked into the grass, hardly any savings made, just makes Starmer look stubborn and stupid. Should've killed the bill and went back to the drawing board.

Yeah, should have done much more gradual reforms, like the Blair Government did with job seekers.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 01, 2025 6:38 pm Yeah, should have done much more gradual reforms, like the Blair Government did with job seekers.

True but at least the worst have been junked.

The Welfare Reform Bill passed Second Reading (the “rebel” reasoned amendment was easily defeated) with a government majority of 75. There seem to have been quite a large number of abstentions.

All the people who should be running the government are cutting hair, driving cabs and posting on Bluesky.

There's not a low priority placed on policy. There's loads of it, lots of it looks pretty good.

Here's more from Bush. Not sure what he's objecting to exactly here. Sure, some obligations have been placed on business, but business taxation hasn't risen much. That's kind of what I'd expect from a Labour Government, and there's the quid pro quo of the greater infrastructure investment and planning reform, which business is happy with.

They did the non-doc tax reform, that's pretty major. So is the anti-avoidance stuff. How does he know there's near zero interest in other reforms? You'd not expect it all to go in the first finance bill. And true, nationalisation doesn't necessarily work, but I reckon Peter Hendy isn't sat back there assuming it will.

Ah, the sage of Bluesky has spoken.

How No 10 went from bullish to badly damaged as rebels forced further welfare bill concessions
Tumultuous 24 hours capped by last-minute welfare bill concessions could define rest of Starmer’s time in No 10

"Could define", says paper who are going to play their full role in defining it like this. Surprised they didn't use a sly passive there for added value.

I take it this is the Grauniad?

Yes. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... oncessions

Lucky guess.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 01, 2025 8:17 pm Here's more from Bush. Not sure what he's objecting to exactly here. Sure, some obligations have been placed on business, but business taxation hasn't risen much. That's kind of what I'd expect from a Labour Government, and there's the quid pro quo of the greater infrastructure investment and planning reform, which business is happy with.

They did the non-doc tax reform, that's pretty major. So is the anti-avoidance stuff. How does he know there's near zero interest in other reforms? You'd not expect it all to go in the first finance bill. And true, nationalisation doesn't necessarily work, but I reckon Peter Hendy isn't sat back there assuming it will.

I believe it is NI raises and raising the minimum wage, plus employment law.

So, now what’s left of the welfare bill has struggled over the line to achieve very little, I would like to suggest the following:

1. Morgan McSweeney needs binning off, at the very least from his current role
2. Liz “distant fourth when I stood for leader” Kendall needs reshuffling into a role where she might be able to do some good rather than focus doggedly on a bottom line and somehow ignore the numerous pitfalls along the way
3. Don’t do a Sunak-style “relaunch”. Just say mistakes were made, lessons learned and get a solid 2-3 years of getting policy that makes a difference to people in place rather than seemingly being determined to alienate core voters while chasing people you will never get to vote for you.
4. As the “emergency: smash glass” option if numbers don’t recover, start raising Angela Rayner’s profile and put her in as leader with 12+ months to go to the next election.

They’re a decent team and Starmer is a decent guy. None of this is rocket science, but they’ve been poorly advised and seemingly oblivious to issues anyone can see a mile off.

As the “emergency: smash glass” option if numbers don’t recover, start raising Angela Rayner’s profile and put her in as leader with 12+ months to go to the next election.

A by election in the Manchester region would be handy. Burnham's not afraid of taking the fight to Farage.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 10:32 am ...
2. Liz “distant fourth when I stood for leader” Kendall needs reshuffling into a role where she might be able to do some good rather than focus doggedly on a bottom line and somehow ignore the numerous pitfalls along the way

And if Kendall was being pressured to focus doggedly on that bottom line and bugger the consequences? That would constitute shooting the messenger, but not the author.

Depends which hat he’s wearing. When he’s running for votes in areas with lots of Reform voters, he can be proper Kipperish.

Amber Rudd took a bullet for Theresa May. I think Kendall can take one for Starmer/ Reeves.

Reeves/ Starmer are relatively trusted by the markets. There’d be a cost in either of them going.

£24bn Wealth Tax is, as someone BTL said, going to become Labour’s equivalent of Brexit at this rate. Something supposedly simple that our European partners are swerving that can be wheeled out to answer any difficult question of competing priorities.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 10:32 am So, now what’s left of the welfare bill has struggled over the line to achieve very little, I would like to suggest the following:

<snip>

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 10:32 am4. As the “emergency: smash glass” option if numbers don’t recover, start raising Angela Rayner’s profile and put her in as leader with 12+ months to go to the next election.

The level of character assassination she would get from the Fourth Estate would be of Biblical proportions though - I'll leave you to think what they'll come up with for her, but it wouldn't be pretty and it'd be portrayed as an ooh scary massive lurch leftwards.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 11:35 am Amber Rudd took a bullet for Theresa May. I think Kendall can take one for Starmer/ Reeves.

Reeves/ Starmer are relatively trusted by the markets. There’d be a cost in either of them going.

£24bn Wealth Tax is, as someone BTL said, going to become Labour’s equivalent of Brexit at this rate. Something supposedly simple that our European partners are swerving that can be wheeled out to answer any difficult question of competing priorities.

Perhaps Kendall can be put into another role. Culture or house of commons.

Boiler wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 11:57 am

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 10:32 am So, now what’s left of the welfare bill has struggled over the line to achieve very little, I would like to suggest the following:

<snip>

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 10:32 am4. As the “emergency: smash glass” option if numbers don’t recover, start raising Angela Rayner’s profile and put her in as leader with 12+ months to go to the next election.

The level of character assassination she would get from the Fourth Estate would be of Biblical proportions though - I'll leave you to think what they'll come up with for her, but it wouldn't be pretty and it'd be portrayed as an ooh scary massive lurch leftwards.

Agreed, she's a gift for satirists and the Tories/Reform. With the electorate she's a bit marmite but according to YouGov more than twice as many dislike her as like her. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ex ... ela_Rayner