Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:32 pm Could this happen?

It wouldn't be a massive surprise.

It would to me., but maybe it shouldn't.

Third in a two horse race. I haven't been able to use that since the Eastleigh by-election where the Tories chose a candidate who said how gifted and ambitious her son was, so he had to go to private school. Then again, even she wasn't the girlfriend of the MP just recalled for sexual harrassment.

This doesn't sound good.

davidjay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:39 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:32 pm Could this happen?

It wouldn't be a massive surprise.

I assume this is why they’ve got their media friends to go full on what if we are honest is Labour following their process and suspending members who wish to dabble in antisemitism. Not sure how yesterday’s chip paper will work by Thursday but we had this with the curry.

In the meantime, the Tory candidate for Wellingborough is pounding the campaign trail with the disgraced former MP. And Sunak gets to say he didn't select the candidate so no further questions, apparently. But Rochdale's a full on "who was there, they need suspending for not challenging what was said". We're talking about some local councillors in an informal meeting.

I liked this post on Twitter

He's lying.

Habib is a serial liar. On the other hand if he does particularly well in Wellingborough I could see it leading to potential divisions in the Reform Party. I have seen a lot of Reform Party members of Twitter basically saying that Habib would make a much better leader than Richard Tice.
An internal power struggle over the next few months could potentially be very damaging for Reform.

To his credit. Tice is a staunch supporter of Ukraine. I wonder if the Trumper wing of Reform might try and take him out.

Do we take this seriously? It's a good faith poll, but woud be unlike much other polling.

Election Maps Prediction.

Wellingborough:
LAB: 42% (+16)
CON: 34% (-28)
RFM: 12% (New)
LDM: 5% (-3)
GRN: 3% (-1)
Others: 4% (+4)

Kingswood:
LAB: 49% (+16)
CON: 31% (-26)
RFM: 6% (New)
GRN: 5% (+3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
Others: 5% (+4)

I think Reform will get more in Wellingborough, Greens maybe more in both.

Hmm, I wish I hadn't seen that other prediction for Wellingborough.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 11:06 pm Do we take this seriously? It's a good faith poll, but woud be unlike much other polling.

Even at 95% confidence, those are some very broad number ranges especially for the Tories, Labour & Greens.

I suspect the methodology being used hasn't completely scrubbed out the voter behaviour of STV voting in comparison to that for FPTP. Were it a by-election held under STV then it would be much closer than it would be currently expected by others, once Reform's transfers went (mostly) to the Tories assuming the Labour candidate didn't hit the quota before then.

More predictions. I'll bite your hand off for these, of course.

Cast my vote this evening in a dead polling centre in Wellingborough. I think Labour will take it, but tbh I have so low faith in my fellow constituents that they wouldn't trundle in and vote for Peter Bone's girlfriend as he's held in some sort of reverance with the local Tory voters.

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:56 pm Cast my vote this evening in a dead polling centre in Wellingborough. I think Labour will take it, but tbh I have so low faith in my fellow constituents that they wouldn't trundle in and vote for Peter Bone's girlfriend as he's held in some sort of reverance with the local Tory voters.

You did all you could.

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:56 pm Cast my vote this evening in a dead polling centre in Wellingborough. I think Labour will take it, but tbh I have so low faith in my fellow constituents that they wouldn't trundle in and vote for Peter Bone's girlfriend as he's held in some sort of reverance with the local Tory voters.

Thanks

Labour Gain.

That face to face poll was absolutely off

If Reform didn’t stand and every vote went to the Tories (an enormously generous what if) they’d still have lost both seats.