Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Maybe information has come to light.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:13 pm Depends who the last person in Trump's ear is. If some donors from arms manufacturers tell him supplying Ukraine and replacing the weapons is actually great, he might carry on with it.

Germany has stepped up its military spending pretty well from its historic pathetic level, and has done some good work on its energy supplies. But I worry about their support for Ukraine.

You make a good point about the US arms industry, equipping Ukraine is worth billions and a lot of jobs depend on it. I'll try and find some figures later.

Put some business Trump’s way and he will suddenly swivel his head.

I’m increasingly of the opinion it’s a waiting game. The Russian economy is fucked, they’ve lost an astonishing number of soldiers, much of their gear is old and outdated and morale is awful - a winning fighting force does not need to draft in troops from one of the poorest, most ass-backward nations on earth.

If Ukraine can keep the status quo for another year or so, Trump may be irrelevant -I think the Russian collapse (as in Putin being ousted) will come from out of the blue and be phenomenally quick.

If China came to Putin's aid it would be a game changer, but they're much more interested in making money out of the West and colonising Africa.

As an example of why Vlad is ultra-keen for a win, inflation in Russia is currently insane - the average median wage is 34000 roubles/month. The average *weekly* grocery spend is bumping up against 9000 roubles, and has gone up 28% this year.

The oligarchs may be loyal at the moment. But their fortunes are evaporating in front of their eyes. And Putin’s war is the reason - they have to pay ever higher wages to the military and defence firms, non-defence firms either have to match those wages or lose staff, and it cycles up and up.

Never seen this much geopolitical uncertainty in my lifetime. Trump may move Europe and China closer together leading to Bejing divesting from supplying Russia with arms. And that's an optistic scenario.

Lots of food for thought from international trade guru David Henig. He makes an interesting point that Trump doesn't worry so much about balanced trade that the UK and EU has with the US but China is his tariff target. Well worth UK/EU playing footsie with China to concentrate minds in Washington.

Now we know Putin isn't bluffing. He has ALWAYS got what he wanted. PM Keir Starmer looks as if he's still in denial. The country needs to prepare for war NOW.

Ok first of order shoot anyone who could undermine us, starting with you Nev.

Putin bluffs all the time, if his military can't take Kyiv what makes him think they're ready for an offensive war with NATO?

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2024 9:18 pm Ok first of order shoot anyone who could undermine us, starting with you Nev.

Oh, good grief, I am not pro Russian. Just stating something which should have been done MONTHS AGO.

As Ian points out if the Russian military can't take Kyiv how are they going to effectively wage war on us?

Worth pointing this out from someone who knows what they're talking about

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2024 9:07 pm Now we know Putin isn't bluffing. He has ALWAYS got what he wanted. PM Keir Starmer looks as if he's still in denial. The country needs to prepare for war NOW.

The point at which we know someone isn't bluffing is when they act. Putin has repeatedly drawn red lines and threatened war with NATO since his invasion began. Each of those red lines has subsequently been crossed and all Putin does is draw another one further back. He's running out of men, equipment and money he can't defeat Ukraine, where is he going to get the resources to take on NATO? The fact that he's drafting in troops from North Korea shows just how desperate he is and that's just to maintain the war with Ukraine, he has no spare capacity.

Also - Putin's aims are to reinstate the buffer zones that the USSR negotiated at the end of WW2. That is a long-standing (ie before 1900) Russian aim*, along with achieving warm water harbours** in the Crimea and the Baltic. He is not interested in any conflict which does not achieve those aims, so his strategy is essentially to 'bite and hold' territory. That is what he did in the Crimea, what he is doing in Ukraine and what he will do next in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, which provide not only warm-water harbours but also a buffer zone in front of St Petersburg.

His aim is to preserve and promote Rusia, not destroy it, which would be the certain outcome of a general war, and would put his strategic aims back a century.


*The Central European Plain makes Russia very vulnerable to invasion (Napoleon, Hitler et al) and so Russia has always sought buffer states to protect their western flank. The eastern is protected by the
Urals.

** Russian ports such as Vladivostok and Archangel freeze in the winter. In order to maintain a naval presence Russia needs to have access to all-year ports and to be able to pass the Dardanelles. That latter might be tricky, so although Sevastapol is of key importance, Russia also needs a port in Syria (Tartus), which explains Putin's support of that regime, and passage of the Dardanelles which explians his warmth towards Turkey and the NATO/EU wish (what Cameron meant) to have Turkey in the fold.



https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portal ... hauhan.pdf

The Ruble has crashed following US sanctions on its overseas banking system. The central bank no longer has any foreign currency to shore up the Ruble's value. Putin's about to find out how generous his friends are.

In a rare official comment on the exchange rate, Russia’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, hinted that Moscow was content letting the rouble slide, saying that Russia’s weak rouble was benefiting exporting companies, offsetting the negative impact of the Central Bank’s high benchmark interest rate.

“I am not saying whether the exchange rate is good or bad. I am just saying that today the exchange rate is very, very favourable for exporters,” Siluanov told a financial conference in Moscow.

Was Jimmy Hill not available for comment?

they can still export oil, especially to India, who will pay in the regular currency, dollars. That makes those dollars relatively expensive but they are dollars, all the same.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2024 8:16 pm

In a rare official comment on the exchange rate, Russia’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, hinted that Moscow was content letting the rouble slide, saying that Russia’s weak rouble was benefiting exporting companies, offsetting the negative impact of the Central Bank’s high benchmark interest rate.

“I am not saying whether the exchange rate is good or bad. I am just saying that today the exchange rate is very, very favourable for exporters,” Siluanov told a financial conference in Moscow.

Was Jimmy Hill not available for comment?

Shares are more affordable! Inner city office space going for a song! Great news for soup bowl makers!

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2024 9:07 pm Now we know Putin isn't bluffing. He has ALWAYS got what he wanted. PM Keir Starmer looks as if he's still in denial. The country needs to prepare for war NOW.

Youngian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2024 6:56 pm The Ruble has crashed following US sanctions on its overseas banking system. The central bank no longer has any foreign currency to shore up the Ruble's value. Putin's about to find out how generous his friends are.

There was a report earlier that Putin had announced Russia was increasing military spending by 30%. Which given the rouble’s slithering will mean a real-terms increase of absolutely fuck all.