Mailwatch(ed) Forum

I think they’d have very narrowly held Kingswood, but yeah. Terrible results.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:48 am I think they’d have very narrowly held Kingswood, but yeah. Terrible results.

Only if you assume that every Reform voter would have voted Tory, which seems rather unlikely as many of them accuse the Tories of "selling out Brexit" and some called Sunak a Socialist.

Oh yes, it's always a nonsense to add every vote for another party on to your own. Was when Labour did it after Uxbridge too.

Good analysis of Kingswood here. If you start on 33%, there's less capacity for a very big increase in voteshare. So even though the swing sounds lower than it might be (18.4%) that's actually pretty much par.

We'd get rid of Sir Bill Wiggin on this showing.

Frosty, with the worst motivation speech since David Brent opened a door and told everyone to get out. The public indeed clamours for more spending cuts.

'One more heave, chaps...'
Field Marshal Haig, 1916

Yeah, Andrew.

Might there be a reason for that? Why didn't they collapse in Honiton and Tiverton, Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire.

We have a winner. Vote for the SDP who couldn't be bothered to stand in either by-election because nobody would vote for them.

The amount of copium being consumed by those to the right AND left of the current Labour party** is quite a sight to behold.



** other than the Lib Dems & Greens, both of whom are managing to somewhat stay in touch with reality.

Outgunned by party machines, apparently. There were two by-elections. Shouldn't have been too hard to get a load of Reform people from all over the country to pound the streets. If you were struggling with that, you should have concentrated on one.

Reason opinion poll was exceeded in Wellingborough is that it's a very favourable Kipper seat.

If Reform knew they were being outgunned why did they put out statements claiming that they were on course for a major upset? The reality is that they are a one issue party and even on that one issue they haven't got a credible policy.

According to many in the party Habib is there strongest candidate so if he can only muster 13% of the vote in a constituency which overwhelming voted for a right wing Tory at the last general election they don't have much hope.

Schroedinger's by-election.

1. Result irrelevant due to low turn-out.
2. Outgunned by bigger parties.


What's been shown is that Reform are at best a place bet in a winner takes all race.
Their tiny bunch of round the clock tweeters can stew in their own juices.

satnav wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:46 pm If Reform knew they were being outgunned why did they put out statements claiming that they were on course for a major upset? The reality is that they are a one issue party and even on that one issue they haven't got a credible policy.

What is the one issue? I’m genuinely not sure what it is. Can’t be Brexit any more - they got that, didn’t they? What is it now?

It’s, you know, something boats

Reform's biggest "gun" was preoccupied.
Offing a political prisoner, elsewhere.

They've mentioned electoral reform, moving to PR. But otherwise I don't know what they want to reform, other than the country in their image. Forever.

Here's another take. Alternatively "people who support green policies understand FPTP".

That Green vote in Kingswood was kind of impressive and I do feel feeds into that Bristol situation a bit.

I’m still of the assumption Labour will hold that but it wouldn’t be surprised if Labour take the Brighton seat and lose that.

I think the fact the centre prices have pushed people out may in the end scatter the Green vote enough. I expect Labour will hold this new Bristol seat that Egan is the PPC for. A small stint in Parliament won’t hurt him anyhow.

I assume Labour will hold Wellingborough as elections this close don’t change that often. The worry for the Cons is this is on par with Dudley West, Dudley West was 3 years before a GE probably at the height of Labour’s lead under Blair after he had become leader.

We are no more than 10 months from a general election.

Here's Laura with a compilation of Mogg, Conservativehome and the worst people on twitter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68326119

Let me save you the bother:
* Tory voters stayed home.
* Didn't Reform do well, better get them in for an interview.
* Labour votes not increased from General election.

Do they pay her for this shit?

Also why is it "Rishi Sunak" but just "Starmer".