Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2026 7:50 pm

Oboogie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2026 7:25 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2026 5:52 pm On the other hand, Maths. But you're probably right.

There's doing what's right and there's winning elections. Taking money from the demographic most likely to vote is not a sound route to winning elections.

Thing is, that demographic overwhelming votes Reform or Tory. Labour could double the triple-lock and that group still wouldn't vote for them.

And that's why the Tories are electorally so successful - they appeal to the people who vote. in the largest numbers, hence they win.

Has Burnham ever mentioned defence?
I wonder how long it will take him and how he will promise to pay for it?

PS The Canary's still a thing in 2026? I had no idea! How?

Oboogie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2026 10:49 pm

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2026 7:50 pm

Oboogie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2026 7:25 pm
There's doing what's right and there's winning elections. Taking money from the demographic most likely to vote is not a sound route to winning elections.

Thing is, that demographic overwhelming votes Reform or Tory. Labour could double the triple-lock and that group still wouldn't vote for them.

And that's why the Tories are electorally so successful - they appeal to the people who vote. in the largest numbers, hence they win.

That's why the Tories were so successful at elections. I don't think that really applies now we have multi-party politics. The only way the Tories will get the vote levels they previously saw is if Reform, and Farage, disappear completely.

Labour's problem is not that they're losing votes to those types of voters, it's that they are losing younger voters, and I mean under-50s - not just 18 year olds, to the Greens.

Carns has resigned, Jarvis in. Welcomed by the forces, I hear.

Perhaps an injection of reality?

Jarvis has been around, Carns hasn't. People tend to get overexcited about new MPs who have a bit of outsider about them. He's lasted less than two years.

If I've understood things correctly, Healey was offered an increase of about half the size of the one he wanted. Was it worth resigning for that?

I've seen speculation that the resignations, and their timing a week before polling day in Makerfield, of both Healy and Carns are sort of tangentially connected to the anticipated leadership challenge. If Burnham succeeds in Makerfield, then Carns will "throw his hat into the ring" in the subsequent leadership election. If Burnham fails in Makerfield and Streeting challenges anyway - as he has indicated he will - then Healy is well-placed as a safe pair of hands to take over.

No idea how realistic this is, but anything could happen.

Heavyweight analysis from Jez. "People say we need to spend this money for the sake of security. I'll tell you what real security is...". He didn't handle interviews well because it's a sixth form debating trick that anybody can spot.

Something that no doubt will be ignored/whined about;

More than half of clean energy schemes needed for Labour’s 2030 target offered grid connection

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 8:02 am That's why the Tories were so successful at elections. I don't think that really applies now we have multi-party politics. The only way the Tories will get the vote levels they previously saw is if Reform, and Farage, disappear completely.

Labour's problem is not that they're losing votes to those types of voters, it's that they are losing younger voters, and I mean under-50s - not just 18 year olds, to the Greens.

The Tories aren't successful at the moment because Reform have stolen their thunder, both the Tories and Labour are losing votes to Reform and, to a lesser extent, the SNP and Plaid.

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 1:25 pm Something that no doubt will be ignored/whined about;

More than half of clean energy schemes needed for Labour’s 2030 target offered grid connection

Where's Stephen Bush? He's the expert on doing government right. I think we need to hear from him.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2026 9:46 pm Samantha Niblett is an MP to watch. A brave decision to tell your party and the public to get a grip and grow the fuck up won't win her many friends. People don't really like politicians 'telling it like it is.' Glad she is.

Thanked her on Bluesky...

A dose of reality, Henry Tufnell has also slightly seemed annoyed at the political machinations.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 12:19 pm I've seen speculation that the resignations, and their timing a week before polling day in Makerfield, of both Healy and Carns are sort of tangentially connected to the anticipated leadership challenge. If Burnham succeeds in Makerfield, then Carns will "throw his hat into the ring" in the subsequent leadership election. If Burnham fails in Makerfield and Streeting challenges anyway - as he has indicated he will - then Healy is well-placed as a safe pair of hands to take over.

No idea how realistic this is, but anything could happen.

I don't think Starmer will run, I also think by default that means they will have a contest not a coronation whatever Lucy Powell wants.

At least there is a world cup so I don't have to even take much notice.

Oboogie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 1:34 pm

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 8:02 am That's why the Tories were so successful at elections. I don't think that really applies now we have multi-party politics. The only way the Tories will get the vote levels they previously saw is if Reform, and Farage, disappear completely.

Labour's problem is not that they're losing votes to those types of voters, it's that they are losing younger voters, and I mean under-50s - not just 18 year olds, to the Greens.

The Tories aren't successful at the moment because Reform have stolen their thunder, both the Tories and Labour are losing votes to Reform and, to a lesser extent, the SNP and Plaid.

Polls don't reflect that. If you look at the share of 2024 labour voters that have shifted to Reform it has been stable at around 10% for the past 18 months; if you look at the share that have moved over to the Greens it's risen from around 5% to around 20%.

If Labour think that pandering to the grey vote will be their salvation then they are really fucked.

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 2:50 pm If Labour think that pandering to the grey vote will be their salvation then they are really fucked.

Labour tried ignoring the electorate before, it gave us Brexit, Boris Johnson and Reform.

The Greens are basically getting by on presenting a nice face, zeroing in on a couple of issues, and claiming a wealth tax funds everything. I don't think that will be so tenable in a general election. I think it's possible to worry too much about losing voters to them at the moment.

Oboogie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 3:00 pm

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2026 2:50 pm If Labour think that pandering to the grey vote will be their salvation then they are really fucked.

Labour tried ignoring the electorate before, it gave us Brexit, Boris Johnson and Reform.

Nah, the Tories gave us those gems, though having Corbyn as leader in the interim certainly didn't help. But the numbers just don't support that not mollycoddling the greys is doing the greatest amount of damage to Labour. Their support in the under-50s group has literally halved in 18 months, a substantial part of the voting electorate. Labour keep on this track and they're fucked and I don't think tactical voting will even save them 2029.