[Spoonman]

...a by-election was held yesterday in the Dublin Bay South seat, with counting starting this morning.

15 candidates standing, and the Irish Labour party candidate Ivana Bacik has managed to secure the most first preferences (30.2%) ahead of Fine Gael (26.2%), followed by Sinn Fein on 15.8% (whom have already conceded that they won't win). DBS is perhaps the most affluent constituency presently in the Republic, but it's also notably socially liberal and generally leans somewhat towards Fine Gael - the by-election was called after the resignation of a FG member for non-scandalous reasons.

If Bacik gets over the quota line that'll be a big boost to Labour as they've been in the wilderness over the last few years after getting a right kicking in the 2016 GE in response to being in governing coalition with FG (19.5% of first preference votes in 2011, down to 6.6% in 2016 resulting in 7 seats, down from 37 in 2011). They presently have six seats in the Dáil.

The most eyebrow raising result from the first count however has been that of Deirdre Conroy of Fianna Fail, party of current Taoiseach Michael Martin - getting just 4.6% of first preference votes in fifth place. FF were never fancied to win this seat, but even that tally will be a big blow to them.

Otherwise, also good to see the National Party get a right kicking despite running their leader here.

Ongoing count available from RTÉ's site - https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin-bay-sout ... nstituency

[Spoonman]

...a few days later and Labour won the Dublin Bay South seat.

Meanwhile, the Irish health service has entered into a partnership to help encourage take up of Covid-19 vaccines among young adults...

[Tubby Isaacs]

Do Fianna Fail supporters just not like being in government with Fine Gael, or is there more to it?

[Youngian]

If Bacik gets over the quota line that'll be a big boost to Labour as they've been in the wilderness over the last few years after getting a right kicking in the 2016 GE in response to being in governing coalition with FG (19.5% of first preference votes in 2011, down to 6.6% in 2016 resulting in 7 seats, down from 37 in 2011). They presently have six seats in the Dáil.

There was a time when third parties could cruise along in power for years with their leader as foreign secretary (like Dick Spring or Genscher in West Germany). For some reason that changed and third parties now get hammered very badly for joining coalitions.

[Andy McDandy]

Ha ha Dick Spring pffffft.

[Youngian]

Ha ha Dick Spring pffffft.

The former Irish Labour leader didn’t get his say on GB News when he rang in; “You’ve had your fun, we weren’t born yesterday.”

[MisterMuncher]

Ha ha Dick Spring pffffft.

Sadly, not from Muff. That would have been perfect.

[Oboogie]

I stumbled upon this article today and I'd be particularly interested in the views of our Irish Mailwatchers. When Irish unification is discussed in GB we hear much of the views and desires of the Northern Irish, of both traditions, but precious little of, what to me is the elephant in the room, the view from the Republic. Anyway, take a look and see what you think. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/talk ... 4BpZJRYbkY

[Tubby Isaacs]

I don't know what opinion in Ireland is like, but 50% plus 1 vote, or something close to that isn't a very good basis for any nationalist movement, especially in places with "army councils" and "community activists " in attendance. Though I suppose you can't say it should require a supermajority or whatever.

[Spoonman]

Haven't time to get into the nitty-gritty of it all, but safe to say that "it's complicated".

[Oboogie]

I did find myself idlily speculating what would happen if NI voted for reunification but the ROI voted against.

[Spoonman]

I did find myself idlily speculating what would happen if NI voted for reunification but the ROI voted against.

The RoI voting against a "unification" with Northern Ireland would at present be more unlikely that the Republic leaving the EU. Whatever potential stumbling blocks along such a road path there would be, there's next to no political bloc in domestic politics that is actively against a potential united Ireland - there's an arguably bigger political presence advocating a return of all of Ireland to the UK, and even that is generous to describe as a "fringe" political movement.

Personally, I reckon a "border poll" will be held before 2040 but despite what they and many of their supporters think, it'll be in spite of Sinn Fein actions, not because of them if a vote for unification comes to pass. The drive towards this potential outcome within the last five years has largely be led by the DUP (to an amazing if not totally surprising irony), an Irish government either led or partnered by Fine Gael (whom the Shinners generally hate as much as the British establishment,), and to a lesser extent the British Government themselves (the international realpolitik consequences of a populist "leave the EU" campaign which had very little substance to dealing with the NI question making some chickens come home early and, in the minds of most leave campaigners, unexpectedly). And wherever the potential result is either 50% +1 of the votes for unification, or at least 75% for unification, there would be a backlash among loyalist paramilitaries, or racketeers to give them a better title, but I would expect both the Irish & British governments, as well as other international interests, will somewhat prepare for it.

[Oboogie]

I found this comment in a thread about reunification in a Rejoin Facebook group interesting, it echoes views I've seen expressed elsewhere, my problem is I have no idea how representative they might be.

"As to the view from the republic, while virtually all of us aspire to eventual reunification when one questions attitudes in depth here one finds that northerners (nationalist or unionist) are viewed as different and NI as troublesome. Therefore I think RoI voters would be very wary in voting yes for unification where a large proportion of the NI unionist population felt disenfranchised. We would know that this could quite easily lead to bombings on our city streets. There would also be the little matter of finance. Some estimates are of a cost of €4000 per southern taxpayer p.a. With considerations such as these to be taken account of it would be madness to take the result of a border poll in the republic for granted. It would be the greatest tragedy of all if NI were to vote by the slimmest of majorities for unification only to receive a rejection in the poll down south. Unification needs many more slow years of nurturing, we are still light years away Dáithí."

[Spoonman]

Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Irish Parliament today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61008492
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/04 ... y-ireland/

Both the above articles refer to Zelensky being given a standing ovation, but neither mention that the five "People-Before-Profit" TD's refused to do so. Their northern wing is standing in the NI Assembly elections next month (with one outgoing MLA representing West Belfast) - along with their support for Brexit back in 2016, they'll have some explaining to do on the doorsteps to try and pass off the actions of their southern reps.

Also on a similar tangent, Irish MEPs Mick Wallace & Claire Daly are a fucking embarrassment to the country.

[The Weeping Angel]

Yeah I saw one of Clare Daly's speeches today

Ok how do you negoitiate peace with a nation that essentially wants to destroy Ukraine?

[Youngian]

Also on a similar tangent, Irish MEPs Mick Wallace & Claire Daly are a fucking embarrassment to the country.

Even got the military industrial complex in there. They had a colleague Paul Murphy who's in the Dail now who is another random generator of student leftist cliches.

[Spoonman]

Across the Irish Sea, Michael Martin is now leading a minority government as a Fine Gael TD resigns from the party whip.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0706/1308817-government/

Given the general horse-trading often done in Daíl Éireann however, there's no real talk of a General Election happening soon especially with Sinn Fein recently hitting historical highs on opinion polling.

[Spoonman]

While Alex Johnson is too much of a coward to allow a debate involving a VONC in he House of Commons, across the Irish Sea the Republic's government comfortably wins its own confidence vote despite losing its majority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62139362

[Spoonman]

Creeslough: Seven dead after Donegal explosion

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183510

Seven confirmed dead following explosion in Creeslough

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/1008/13279 ... h-donegal/

A sobering reminder that something like this in a sleepy village in northern Co. Donegal can happen pretty much anywhere no matter how urban or rural the place.

Edit: Now nine confirmed dead. F**k.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Bloody hell...

That must be devastating in such a small community.