[mattomac]

Thing is, are they always undecided and who are they? That’s your problem, Labour are around 20 points ahead, some people may just not vote.

You can guarantee the Tories will get 32% at least it’s pretty much their base, however it depends what else they can get and if the 32% show up.

I think the scene benefits Labour’s get out the vote this time around, time will tell but they look desperate and I go back to that budget, every major decision is being pushed till after 2025.

If I’m honest they are looking at mitigating losses, potentially if lucky avoiding a majority a bit like Labour in 2010, problem is Sunak isn’t Gordon Brown and the Tories don’t resemble a party of experience and Labour are not particularly the Tories of 2010.

I don’t think we are in a position where if they get an excuse they will vote for them.

[Crabcakes]

2 things will sway an earlier Tory election:

1. The success of voter ID in suppressing non-Tory votes
2. A decent summer with some relief to energy bills, the NHS from less winter strain, and a recession not quite as bad as forecast.

That might tempt them to go early in the hope warm days with students away from Uni and everyone under 55 having fewer options for identification meaning turnout is as favourable to them as it will ever be. A cold, wet summer with money woes may see them defer to 2024 in the hope of different circumstances, but that’ll be their last shot. A January 2025 election, with NHS pressures, brexit Xmas, recession, another energy crisis, various public inquiries reporting etc could see them dipping back into extinction territory.

[Arrowhead]

1. The success of voter ID in suppressing non-Tory votes

Do we know if this is being legally challenged in any way? Some of the examples of what is permissible seem outrageous to me, for example Oyster cards being fine for the over 60s but not 18+ voters.

[Watchman]

Surely Point 1 won’t be proven until there is an actual election

[Crabcakes]

Surely Point 1 won’t be proven until there is an actual election

Well they’re doing it from May, so barring something wholly unexpected at least 1 set of large scale (albeit local) elections will happen before a GE.

Now you may argue that basing what would happen in a general election on what happens in a local election in terms of voter suppression would be at best questionable. To which I’d reply yes, but bear in mind the following: the Tories are both fucking stupid AND shitting themselves desperate.

[mattomac]

Yeah, they won't leave it til the last minute, I can't see it this year, in fact I think the locals might hurt Sunak that he is fighting another fight within the party.

[Watchman]

Surely Point 1 won’t be proven until there is an actual election

Well they’re doing it from May, so barring something wholly unexpected at least 1 set of large scale (albeit local) elections will happen before a GE.

Now you may argue that basing what would happen in a general election on what happens in a local election in terms of voter suppression would be at best questionable. To which I’d reply yes, but bear in mind the following: the Tories are both fucking stupid AND shitting themselves desperate.

Fair point, I forgot they were trialling it in May

[Abernathy]

A few reports around this morning that Sunak has decided that he will call the election in October of 2024. So, almost going full term, but not quite- it would be a bit daft to go in January 25 in the teeth of winter.

He must think that the Tories' electoral fortunes are going to improve somewhat in the next 18 months. He could be onto something. We should see a couple of by-elections before then (surely the Privileges Committee will deliver its judgement on Johnson soon?) The coming period will also test Labour's nerve, for sure - it's the old carrying the priceless porcelain vase down the long corridor with the highly polished floor again. It will also test the worth of Labour's new attack strategy against Sunak.

Plus, of course, the other thing that has changed is in Scotland. Wee Nippy and her spouse Peter Murrell have both gone and are now mired in scandal involving a police investigation on fraud and/or larceny. Wee Nippy's replacement Humza Yousaf is seemingly making a bit of an arse of it in the face of schism within the SNP, and under Anas Sarwar, Labour is making very good headway in the polls., with the prospect of significant Scottish Labour gains at Westminster.

I'm not exactly looking forward to it with relish, but I'm certainly looking forward to Labour back in government.

[Andy McDandy]

October means lighter evenings, reasonably warm weather, all useful.

Whatever the outcome, and I hope and expect it to involve Labour in power, they can repeal the election ID laws and introduce PR whenever they like. I want the Tories properly crushed. See how well their ideas do without the old familiar brand.

[Bones McCoy]

The Tories can't really go 110% on "There's a police investigation".

* It covers 50 seats, most of which they can't win anyway.
* It opens discussion of a rather bigger UK wide issue. Stuff that reflects rather poorly on the Tories.
* Not to mention a mass of dodgy business that plod hasn't yet looked into, but looks shady as hell to the ordinary voter.

[Abernathy]

Alright, you bunch of Cunts. Give us your top ten Tory MPs whose casting into the outer darkness at the coming General Election would give you the largest amount of joy comparable to the legendary "Portillo moment" of 1997. Here's my list for starters :

1 Jacob Rees-Mogg

2. Andrea Jenkyns.

3. Rachel McClean.

4. Robert Jenrick.

5. 30p Lee.

6. Jonathan Gullis.

7. Scott Benton.

8. Mark Francois.

9. Chris Philp.

10. Boris Johnson.

[Youngian]

I’ve done this before and it’s grim, the list expands to 30 in no time.

10 Tories you’d like to stay is a tougher proposition.

[Abernathy]

I’ve done this before and it’s grim, the list expands to 30 in no time.

10 Tories you’d like to stay is a tougher proposition.

I have total sympathy. 10 you want to keep isn’t just tougher, it’s fucking impossible.

[Oboogie]

I deplore the omission of Mad Nad.

[Abernathy]

I deplore the omission of Mad Nad.

I thought it unlikely. But it would indeed be grand.

[Oboogie]

I thought it unlikely.

Me too, which would make it all the more delicious if it happened.

[Yug]

I deplore the omission of Mad Nad.

You'd be disappointed there. She's already announced she won't be standing again.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... 590795.amp

[Watchman]

I’ve gone two ways on this; I feel in the current climate and how the public’s relationship with politics has changed, mainly due to social media and the behaviour of some of our MP’s, a “Portillo moment” won’t be such a shock. On the other is my view that those on Mr Abernathy’s list are undeserving of representing their electorate in the first place, they have got there either, “local squire route”, i.e talks posh, all the local area beholden to him, e.g. Mogg, or had a senior position as a local councillor and basically bullied their support out of people e.g Anderson, Bridgen. And it is the latter I will get most enjoyment in seeing their downfall, a group of inadequates who got lucky, received salaries, expenses and recognition well beyond their abilities and results, when they are back in the real world, they will have nowhere to go and no one interested in them

[Youngian]

And it is the latter I will get most enjoyment in seeing their downfall, a group of inadequates who got lucky, received salaries, expenses and recognition well beyond their abilities and results, when they are back in the real world, they will have nowhere to go and no one interested in them

An ex Tory MP used to be a shoe-in for a corporate marketing or comms role but who the fuck would want a loon like Andrea Jenkyn or Francois who Tweet pro Trump propaganda, as their public face?

[Spoonman]

Alright, you bunch of Cunts. Give us your top ten Tory MPs whose casting into the outer darkness at the coming General Election would give you the largest amount of joy comparable to the legendary "Portillo moment" of 1997. Here's my list for starters :

1 Jacob Rees-Mogg

2. Andrea Jenkyns.

3. Rachel McClean.

4. Robert Jenrick.

5. 30p Lee.

6. Jonathan Gullis.

7. Scott Benton.

8. Mark Francois.

9. Chris Philp.

10. Boris Johnson.

If even only half of that list gets dumped on their arse by the electorate, the phrase "I can only get so erect!" springs to mind.

An ex Tory MP used to be a shoe-in for a corporate marketing or comms role but who the fuck would want a loon like Andrea Jenkyn or Francois who Tweet pro Trump propaganda, as their public face?

Easy, KGBN with their wingnut welfare.