Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Another to file under "this would be nice". The seats look less mad than some of the others, but the Tories could easily get a lot fewer. In this poll they hold 5 out of 10 Surrey seats. A bit more tactical voting, and they only get 2.

It's almost like Labour's now run by people who understand FPTP or something.

The Tories. SNP and Lib Dems all fucked their campaigns up in 2017.

Despite the most abysmal Tory GE campaign, May still managed a whopping 42% of the popular vote. Does Alex have any good ideas why that should be?

Ah, yes, percentage vote share. The old Corbynite “argument” of choice. If only elections were decided solely on that basis.

When it suits them, at least. Otherwise they join the long list of affronts to democracy.

Trump on losing the popular vote had a point; I’d have fought the election differently if the rules were different and still have won.

Starting to get quite excited about the various local and mayoral elections coming on 2 May.

I just have a hunch that the Tories are going to get absolutely slaughtered on a scale that not even they are able to anticipate. Almost to the extent that Sunak should feel that he may as well quit now.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 7:14 pm Starting to get quite excited about the various local and mayoral elections coming on 2 May.

I just have a hunch that the Tories are going to get absolutely slaughtered on a scale that not even they are able to anticipate. Almost to the extent that Sunak should feel that he may as well quit now.

I’m willing to bet that Labour (or the Lib Dems or Greens) could take a massive swathe of council seats/swing councils from the Tories, but the headlines in some rags will absolutely be “Reform win [x]”, even if that is 1 seat in Bastard-on-Sea, Essex.

Reform should come 2nd in the Blackpool South by-election, and they''ll doubtless get a bit of attention from that. But they're mostly passing on the local elections. Even if the seats they're contesting are well-chosen (ie in Essex and Lincolnshire) the indicative national vote share is going to be pathetic.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 7:18 pm

Abernathy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 7:14 pm Starting to get quite excited about the various local and mayoral elections coming on 2 May.

I just have a hunch that the Tories are going to get absolutely slaughtered on a scale that not even they are able to anticipate. Almost to the extent that Sunak should feel that he may as well quit now.

I’m willing to be that Labour (or the Lib Dems or Greens) could take a massive swathe of council seats/swing councils from the Tories, but the headlines in some rags will absolutely be “Reform win [x]”, even if that is 1 seat in Bastard-on-Sea, Essex.

Absolutely inevitable.

I suspect Reform's appeal to the right is based on them sounding more to the right than the Tories, and them not having the opportunity to fuck anything up yet.

If they were to get a grab at power, their tendency to be a fan club behind one or two big personalities (for want of a better word) would mean an absolute dearth of ability. Then again, all they're hoping for is a Trump win and the exalted position of first in line to get fucked by him.

The latest:

Well, this is interesting.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2024 9:58 pm Well, this is interesting.

Calling a GE four days before the locals would indeed be interesting.

Half pint bottlers.

Oboogie wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2024 10:29 pm

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2024 9:58 pm Well, this is interesting.

Calling a GE four days before the locals would indeed be interesting.

Yes. Hard to see what the logic of that would be. Perhaps Sunak has finally realised that the GE defeat is all but unshiftably nailed on, and may even be thinking of using a backs-to-the-wall GE as a kind of motivator to dwindling numbers of Tory voters to try to mitigate the scale of the coming defeats in the local, mayoral, and general electoral contests. Rishi biting the bullet, if you will.

Would be the only popular policy he has…

Hanging on as long as possible only made sense if a Labour collapse is expected.
This isn't happening yet, and Labour's lead over the Conservatives is very gradually increasing.

There may be a more pressing reason to go early.
That's Reform who are closing on the Conservatives in the race for second place.

For the Conservatives to be the 120 seat official opposition, but with fewer votes than Reform leaves them a laughing stock.

There's also the possibility that if Reform got 15% of the vote and no seats whereas the Tories got 20% and 200 seats, there would be serious rumblings about street protest and Tommy Ten-Names would be even more lionised by the tinfoilers.

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