Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Another poll for WM Mayor. The Independent is apparently running on Palestine, and challenging Shabana Mahmood in Ladywood in the General Election. If the result is like this poll, he'll probably get a fair bit of attention. But the Tory vote, even with Street distancing himself looks a bit high.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 8:04 am Labour youthquake here at last. Courtesy of boring old fuddy-duddy Sir Keir. Worrying how high the far right poll with the under 30s in some European countries but not here thank goodness.

Possibly down to the incumbent in some places.

Cameron didn’t have a bad youth vote, I remember people in my University class who liked him and were voting Tory, strangely all the Conservatives I followed when I worked at Swansea have now become Labour.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 8:04 am Labour youthquake here at last. Courtesy of boring old fuddy-duddy Sir Keir. Worrying how high the far right poll with the under 30s in some European countries but not here thank goodness.

I wonder if it was Brexit that did the work among young voters for Jez rather than his radical idealism. Lucky more of them didn't know his history on the issue.

Even John Major in 1997 didn't do anything like that badly with youth.

27%, not much worse than his overall share of 31%,

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1997

The fact it would be fine if he was say 19pts behind in an Ipsos poll with 50-65s

mattomac wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 6:19 pm

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 8:04 am Labour youthquake here at last. Courtesy of boring old fuddy-duddy Sir Keir. Worrying how high the far right poll with the under 30s in some European countries but not here thank goodness.

Possibly down to the incumbent in some places.

Cameron didn’t have a bad youth vote, I remember people in my University class who liked him and were voting Tory, strangely all the Conservatives I followed when I worked at Swansea have now become Labour.

That was round about the time that the Tories were seen as the party of aspiration and Labour were suffering from 18-30s never knowing a Tory government.

This is better than I'm expecting. Houchen miles ahead of his party even with the mismanagement/corruption. I suppose some people look at the stuff happening around him and give him credit, but hold Sunak responsible for everything else going to shit.

Here's Westminster polling by contrast.

Bit bored as my corner of the world is not in this current cycle

That poll with Andy Street leading- its methodology is wrong. The West Midlands County is much less Tory than the West Midlands Region. So the poll showing Street losing is more likely to be right.

Corrected figures here. Labour lead but Street much too close for comfort.

Was talking to friend in Epsom last night who said he had seen a poll for the Surrey PCC election with the Lib Dem candidate leading, Labour second and the tories a poor third.

If that pans out then it really would cause ructions in the Parliamentary Conservative Party and Graham Brady's postman could need a larger sack.

Simon

The Tories did awfully in Surrey in the yougov MRP recently. Scroll down for the constituency map with projections on. Not just the seats where the Lib Dems are ahead, but the ones where the Tories are vulnerable to tactical voting. Sadly Claire Coutihno is probably safe in East Surrey.

So I think they'd be in a lot of trouble if they hadn't changed the voting system, but they've got a good chance of winninng under FPTP, because policing isn't a classic Lib Dem thing.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... -400-seats

Interestingly, Who Targets Me reports that
a) Susan Hall's ad spend on social media is some way below Khan's, and
b) the Lib Dems have spent nothing.

Does that mean a passive alliance Lib/Lab?

That would be entirely sensible.

Why do the Greens bother running then spending only £773?

If I've understood that correctly, Hall has switched from "Susan for Mayor" to "Sadiq won't Listen". Seems like an odd way to spend your own money, like you don't care if you're mayor.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 11:36 pm Street has been running a desperate and hostile attack-based campaign that smells strongly of fear and is undoubtedly a reflection of the desperation the Tories, particularly in the West Midlands, are feeling, like cornered rats. They've taken to referring to Richard Parker as "Labour's novice candidate" - seriously, is that really going to impress even one wavering erstwhile Tory ?

It has got "defeat" running through it like the word "Blackpool" through a stick of rock.

He is going down (oo-err), he knows it, and, sorry Tubbs, but he fucking deserves it.

The latest ones are "Labour doesn't care about Solihull", which if they're worried about that particular 'blue rosette on a donkey' area means they're fucked.

What's this, I love 1990? When the Tories got killed in the local elections but diverted attenton to a couple of places with very low poll tax.

Seb still doesn't have a seat btw.

Might or might not make a difference. Hope it does.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 6:24 pm What's this, I love 1990? When the Tories got killed in the local elections but diverted attenton to a couple of places with very low poll tax.

Seb still doesn't have a seat btw.

"And who scored the goal?" syndrome.

Doesn't matter that you answered all the other questions correctly; you didn't know one tiny bit of trivia so you may as well have scored nothing.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 6:24 pm What's this, I love 1990? When the Tories got killed in the local elections but diverted attenton to a couple of places with very low poll tax.

Seb still doesn't have a seat btw.

and Seb's missed an opportunity there to big-up another gobshite standing for mayor: not content with being Leader of Notts County Council, and MP for Mansfield, Ben Bradley is also standing for the new role of mayor for the East Midlands, (says East Mids, but its only Notts and Derby)