[davidjay]

If only we hadn't done so well in 1997.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Or 2001 or 2005.

[Arrowhead]

I’m seeing some rather optimistic takes on Twitter this afternoon, stating that Labour are set to hold most of their local seats and that - miraculously - the LD’s are somehow poised to humiliate the Tories across much of southern England. There are already complaints that a defeat in Hartlepool will be all that the press & media will obsess about, despite the towering progressive triumphs elsewhere.

[Andy McDandy]

"Bad night for Labour, protest votes, quick slash the funding".

[Tubby Isaacs]

I’m seeing some rather optimistic takes on Twitter this afternoon, stating that Labour are set to hold most of their local seats and that - miraculously - the LD’s are somehow poised to humiliate the Tories across much of southern England. There are already complaints that a defeat in Hartlepool will be all that the press & media will obsess about, despite the blazing progressive triumphs elsewhere.

Anything counting on Lib Dems is optimistic. Best for Labour in terms of this week is that Labour pinches a chunk of their vote and props Labour up. Longer term it would good for the Lib Dems to hold up, of course.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

I suspect the 2 party/FPTP system is too ingrained in the collective psyche to be replaced any time soon. When we've had narrow or no overall majority results recently, there's been an attitude of "just get on with it", the Brenda from Bristol reaction. I guess that is one of the things in the Tories favour, that sentiment that as long as someone's running things, good enough.

I and you know all the arguments in favour of PR, but I feel like Adlai Stevenson at times.

We live in a politically illiterate society. I would hazard that Tory voters have but a hazy idea of Tory policies and practices (beyond Brexit and racist dogwhistles) nor Labour beyond the NHS and Welfare. So it's difficult to get a vast swathe of the electorate to even consider thinking about which party to vote for, and as for reading manifestos...

[Tubby Isaacs]

We live in a politically illiterate society. I would hazard that Tory voters have but a hazy idea of Tory policies and practices (beyond Brexit and racist dogwhistles) nor Labour beyond the NHS and Welfare. So it's difficult to get a vast swathe of the electorate to even consider thinking about which party to vote for, and as for reading manifestos...

That's not really how the Tories are campaigning though in eg Teesside. Look at this. It's investment and jobs, hyped to the hilt on Facebook.

You and I of course know that the North East gets fucked by Brexit (though maybe Tesside can undo some of that with its freeport, at the expense of other areas). But that's not the point. They're not sitting back relying on ignorance. There's a positive case (albeit one that jars in view of the previous 10 years). They see a huge chance for a reallignment here, where Johnson spaffs/invests and keeps turning up in a hard hat.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

They do dog listening.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nice test for Corbyn supporters. (Credit to Paula Surridge for the example, though she didn't frame it like I am).

Labour lost Kensington in 2017, with a huge third party (Lib Dem) vote. If there were a by-election today, where the Tory MP for Kensington had ro resign over sexual harrassment allegations, what would the result be? Labour would probably win, right?

By Corbynite logic, that would mean Starmer is doing better than Jez. Would they accept that?

[Tubby Isaacs]

They do dog listening.

Not enough to win consistently.

And much more beside. The Tories promised Blyth Valley a rail line in 2019. They won the seat by 800 votes. They'll promise somewhere else jobs building the royal yacht. It's much cleverer strategy, much more targeted than we've given them credit for. They've addressed another group today with Indian visas- Asian Brexiters.

Much more is happening than we've previously allowed. Of course, it'll reverse if Brexit really goes to shit without Covid to hide it. But I think they've got some formidable strategists in there driving this, however much we focus on Johnson and Cummings and co.

[Arrowhead]

Nice test for Corbyn supporters. (Credit to Paula Surridge for the example, though she didn't frame it like I am).

Labour lost Kensington in 2017, with a huge third party (Lib Dem) vote. If there were a by-election today, where the Tory MP for Kensington had ro resign over sexual harrassment allegations, what would the result be? Labour would probably win, right?

By Corbynite logic, that would mean Starmer is doing better than Jez. Would they accept that?

That’s a good point re the Kensington/Hartlepool comparison. If, twelve months ago, you’d told Starmer that he would spend his first by-election defending an existing Labour seat, Hartlepool would probably have been his 200th choice from a list of 202.

[The Weeping Angel]

We live in a politically illiterate society. I would hazard that Tory voters have but a hazy idea of Tory policies and practices (beyond Brexit and racist dogwhistles) nor Labour beyond the NHS and Welfare. So it's difficult to get a vast swathe of the electorate to even consider thinking about which party to vote for, and as for reading manifestos...

That's not really how the Tories are campaigning though in eg Teesside. Look at this. It's investment and jobs, hyped to the hilt on Facebook.

You and I of course know that the North East gets fucked by Brexit (though maybe Tesside can undo some of that with its freeport, at the expense of other areas). But that's not the point. They're not sitting back relying on ignorance. There's a positive case (albeit one that jars in view of the previous 10 years). They see a huge chance for a reallignment here, where Johnson spaffs/invests and keeps turning up in a hard hat.

It's pork Barrell politics they've even been going around saying if you don't support you don't vote Tory you don't get any infrascture.

[The Weeping Angel]

I’m seeing some rather optimistic takes on Twitter this afternoon, stating that Labour are set to hold most of their local seats and that - miraculously - the LD’s are somehow poised to humiliate the Tories across much of southern England. There are already complaints that a defeat in Hartlepool will be all that the press & media will obsess about, despite the towering progressive triumphs elsewhere.

That's not to go happen though, in the West Midlands you and I though that Andy Street will win. It's going to be a bloodbath.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I’m seeing some rather optimistic takes on Twitter this afternoon, stating that Labour are set to hold most of their local seats and that - miraculously - the LD’s are somehow poised to humiliate the Tories across much of southern England. There are already complaints that a defeat in Hartlepool will be all that the press & media will obsess about, despite the towering progressive triumphs elsewhere.

That's not to go happen though, in the West Midlands you and I though that Andy Street will win. It's going to be a bloodbath.

I'm not that worried about that one. Labour will lose badly, but metro mayors can build a brand of how they're "doing stuff", making plans, opening stations. etc. In time, this will get long in the tooth, of course. But not now, not with Covid.

The West of England one (where the Tory incumbent is standing down) is a better test for Labour.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I’m seeing some rather optimistic takes on Twitter this afternoon, stating that Labour are set to hold most of their local seats and that - miraculously - the LD’s are somehow poised to humiliate the Tories across much of southern England. There are already complaints that a defeat in Hartlepool will be all that the press & media will obsess about, despite the towering progressive triumphs elsewhere.

Interesting idea on that score here. Don't think she'd say it was anything more than a hunch, and it's not been picked up in polls, I don't think. But if corruption does cut through in a damaging way, this might be the group where we see it, and the Lib Dems might benefit.

Long term of course, the Lib Dems getting Tory Remainers is excellent news. Believe it when I see it.

[The Weeping Angel]

I’m seeing some rather optimistic takes on Twitter this afternoon, stating that Labour are set to hold most of their local seats and that - miraculously - the LD’s are somehow poised to humiliate the Tories across much of southern England. There are already complaints that a defeat in Hartlepool will be all that the press & media will obsess about, despite the towering progressive triumphs elsewhere.

That's not to go happen though, in the West Midlands you and I though that Andy Street will win. It's going to be a bloodbath.

I'm not that worried about that one. Labour will lose badly, but metro mayors can build a brand of how they're "doing stuff", making plans, opening stations. etc. In time, this will get long in the tooth, of course. But not now, not with Covid.

The West of England one (where the Tory incumbent is standing down) is a better test for Labour.

Especially when Andy Street does all he can to not identify as a Tory.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yep. Smart choice of candidate, political outsider etc.

Labour will hopefully find some candidates like this.

[Arrowhead]

Long term of course, the Lib Dems getting Tory Remainers is excellent news. Believe it when I see it.

I suspect those wavering Tory Remainers will almost certainly overwhelmingly stick with their party this week - "no sense in rocking the boat during a national emergency" - but longer term yes, they could indeed be rich pickings for the Lib Dems. That'll happen much sooner than Labour regaining its old strength in the Red Wall and Scotland I reckon, but it'll be an encouraging sign when we see the LD numbers start to shift upwards.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's amazing how little we heard about Tory Remainers compared with Labour Leavers. Then again, the Tories looked like they wanted Labour Leavers, which helps. And I think No Deal was averted, the Tory Remainers were probably reassured in 2019.

Are they still onboard now? I think you're probably right that they are. But slow burn Brexit will test that.

[Tubby Isaacs]

To a point, but there are many more Hartlepools up for grabs than there are seats in cities. I mean, the Tories probably lose Chingford, Kensington, Wimbledon and a couple of others (Carshalton?) but they can afford to lose them.