[Abernathy]

At the moment, there is a great deal of talk about so-called “seismic shifts” in British politics, with insurgent parties from the left (The Greens) and Right (Farage and various other parties started by former Reform/UKIP nutjobs who have fallen out with Nige).

But is it really such a seismic shift? Or is it just business as usual with different coloured rosettes ? Will it actually even happen ?

As someone who is a Labour Party member of 40 years plus, and someone that has always had what I’d cast as progressive political outlook, I’ve started to consider how I’d feel if the so-called “seismic shift” really did materialise. There’s a slightly sentimental attachment to Labour of course, but the Tories do seem basically to be circling the drain, and Labour, if you believe the media coverage, might also be facing existential peril.

I suppose what we just might be looking at in terms of our future political landscape is the Green Party as the new (not New) Labour Party, and Reform as the new (all but literally) new Tories . Politics always boils down to the proressives vs the reactionaries, or if you prefer, the good guys vs. the cunts. Would that be so bad ? Would I, an old Labour hack, be able comfortably to get on board as a Green supporter? I dare say I possibly would.

My sort of default view is that the “seismic shift” is a load of old wank, but ….

However, this is an interesting area for debate, which is why I’ve opened the thread.


Please fill your boots, Mailwatchers.

[Bones McCoy]

The only real diferences I see are:
1. Social media is available to stoke culture war with bot farms.
2. The BBC's news service has lost any sense of impartiality. If you ask hem what the weather's like they'll ask Nigel.
3. The fash have got their on television station. There to be clipped, not watched.

[Oboogie]

Farage and Polanski are populists. They are both very good at shouting slogans which appeal to many but are very hard to action as practical policies.

I think we're already at peak Farage and we may soon be at peak Polanski, the more power they get, the more scrutiny they come under and the quicker they fold like a house of cards.

At some point, the Conservatives will get fed up with coming third or fourth and will move back towards the centre-right because Tories do like being in government as that's where the money and power are.

Meanwhile, whilst the Tories dither, is there an opportunity for the LibDems? I know they traditionally like to punch gift horses in the mouth but maybe this time...?

TLDR: It's not a Seismic Shit, merely a Seismic Fart.

[Bones McCoy]

Polanski won't last long:

A populist on the left is permitted zero mis-steps.
Perhaps one, if they're actively de-constructing an established left party.

Farage, by contrast, is forgiven gaffes on a daily basis.
But even he will be subject to the general fatigue of over-exposure and "not that spiv again" attitudes.

[Youngian]

Farage also has the problem with his core headbanger support defecting to Rupert Lowe's vendetta party.
Lucky he now has these experienced Tories on the team to compensate

Does a seismic shift cause a political earthquake or vice versa? One for Armando Ianucci's very excellent R4 show on political language.