- Fri Jul 04, 2025 12:00 pm
#92189
What's bizarre are the posts saying Labour are now doomed because this will split their vote. I don't think this is true though:
1. proper Jez headbangers already didn't vote for Labour because anything not exactly what they want is Tory. So they probably voted for some hardcore loon or not at all at the last GE - not in the equation
2. slightly less aggrieved voters probably went green or Lib dem. They might stay green/LD or go to the People's Front of Corbyn. But that's not a labour vote split - again, not in the equation
3. Anyone who is more about ensuring Farage/Tories don't win will tactically vote. They don't have to like Labour, but they recognise the real danger. Not in the equation because they're always voting against, not for.
So to assume this is a death knell for Starmer and Labour is to also assume there is a significant Labour voter cohort who simultaneously are engaged enough to always vote, but don't like Starmer's Labour, but also voted for them last time, but don't tactically vote, but do want to vote left wing so won't either go Tory or Reform or even LD as a protest, but don't care enough to stop the right winning seats. This is a lot of seriously muddled people, and I struggle to believe there are enough of these schzophrenically vague and fired up types.
That said, the new party might get votes - but the most likely voters for Project Jez are the same "nice to have but make fuck-all difference" bonus voters he added (and who his cronies love to wang on about) in already safe Labour seats, who likely stopped voting Labour out of spite the moment Corbyn stepped down so didn't form part of the cohort at the last GE. The sort of person who claims everyone not exactly of the same mindset of them on every topic is automatically a Tory, who'll unironically say "Don't blame me, I voted for Corbyn" in a swing seat where a LD or Green could have won in the 2019 GE, and who thinks making things absolutely as awful as possible for everyone is a great idea because then it is absolutely inevitable that the country will immediately rise up in revolution. Promise.