[soulboy]

What is the smallest sum of money that sounds like a big sum of money?

According to Halifax

The average first-time buyer in 2024 was 33 years old, two years older than ten years ago (31 years old) and the oldest in two decades. They put down an average deposit of £61,090 and typically paid £311,034 for their first home.

Nice little bonus for those who can afford, not much help for those who are too busy paying a landlord's mortgage to save the other fifty grand.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Katie Lam is a name that's cropping up a fair bit. She's already been caught lying so badly that The Sun agreed to issue a correction. Here she pretends she's unaware of bilingualism and London school results.

[Killer Whale]

There is clear research evidence that children of immigrants out-perform their peers in the education system (and underperform in gaining jobs that reflect their educational attainment, incidentally).

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Katie Lams of this world used to have an answer for the former- the exams have been dumbed down. Does she believe that, I wonder? I thought that Gove had toughened the exams up? Perhaps Gove will soon be reduced to an establishment liberal in the demonology, which would be amusing and create some editorial dilemmas at The Spectator.

In terms of the latter, job prospects of brown people are probably not helped by Katie creating the impression that they speak like characters out of Mind Your Language.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Here's Katie's previous "too dishonest for The Sun" effort.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Good thread here on Coutinho's disingenuousness. Apart from the cost of building the gas plants, carbon taxes and that she's chosen a gas price from summer when demand is lower, she's indeed spot on with this commonsense take of hers.

[Abernathy]

I’m always extremely wary of writing the Tories off as dead, as has , for example, Danny “Dunning” Kruger, one of a long list of former and current Tory MPs who have “defected” to Farage’s seemingly successful new grift, sorry, party, which appears to be on the brink of displacing the Tories as the pre-eminent political party of the right. We are constantly reminded that the Tories are the most electorally successful party of the last 200 years, though, and that they’ve come back from the brink of oblivion before. Which is true, I guess, so I’m wary of writing them off too. But this feels different. Badenoch was defiant, yet there was a distinct feel of her whistling in the dark.

Whilst I might normally welcome the demise of the Tories, I find myself somewhat concerned. Particularly since “The Nasty Party” seems to being replaced by “The Even Nastier Party (x1000)”, all of whom are utter cunts, and most of whom seem to be former Tories anyway.

The Overton Window has definitely shifted, though - hence Labour having to govern around the fringes of right/centrist essentiality.

But Starmer is right - we are in a fight, and it’s a fucking important one. We have to see these malevolent mutants off. I’m agreeing with Michael fucking Heseltine, for pity’s sake.

[davidjay]

I’m always extremely wary of writing the Tories off as dead, as has , for example, Danny “Dunning” Kruger, one of a long list of former and current Tory MPs who have “defected” to Farage’s seemingly successful new grift, sorry, party, which appears to be on the brink of displacing the Tories as the pre-eminent political party of the right. We are constantly reminded that the Tories are the most electorally successful party of the last 200 years, though, and that they’ve come back from the brink of oblivion before. Which is true, I guess, so I’m wary of writing them off too. But this feels different. Badenoch was defiant, yet there was a distinct feel of her whistling in the dark.

Whilst I might normally welcome the demise of the Tories, I find myself somewhat concerned. Particularly since “The Nasty Party” seems to being replaced by “The Even Nastier Party (x1000)”, all of whom are utter cunts, and most of whom seem to be former Tories anyway.

The Overton Window has definitely shifted, though - hence Labour having to govern around the fringes of right/centrist essentiality.

But Starmer is right - we are in a fight, and it’s a fucking important one. We have to see these malevolent mutants off. I’m agreeing with Michael fucking Heseltine, for pity’s sake.

Part of me would welcome a Reform government, just to show its supporters how fucking dreadful life would be under Farage. The saner, much larger part of me knows that any modicum of power or influence for the frog-faced cunt would unleash a wave of bigotry so utterly horrendous that Britain would never recover.

[Andy McDandy]

Fargle might be riding high in the polls, but thankfully, it's still very unlikely he will ever lead ReFuck into power.

His party would have to find 330+ electoral candidates who could pass media and public scrutiny, and survive an election campaign without fucking up. Ditto everyone around them. Then once in parliament, not fall out or piss off Nigel.

[Youngian]

Those who aren’t political amateurs don’t get the bunting out when they’re riding high in the first year of a parliament. But Reform supporters aren’t the brightest buttons.
The Tories can console themselves by the Dutch Christian Democrats who are enjoying a revival in fortunes. Their support base was eaten by the hard right and Rutte’s socially liberal centre right party. They have a new moderate leader who isn’t impersonating Wilders.

[soulboy]

Media scrutiny? That's a good one.

[mattomac]

Fargle might be riding high in the polls, but thankfully, it's still very unlikely he will ever lead ReFuck into power.

His party would have to find 330+ electoral candidates who could pass media and public scrutiny, and survive an election campaign without fucking up. Ditto everyone around them. Then once in parliament, not fall out or piss off Nigel.

It’s why they’ve welcomed so many Tories.

[Abernathy]

That’s truly puzzling. How does the logic go?

“Right, that’s me had it with those fucking Tories. Fourteen years. They're finished as a political party. It’s Reform UK for me . Time for something new and different.”

But most of them are just the very same Tories. Even Farage used to be a Tory. They’re really not new or different at all.

“Never mind that. It’s Reform for me !”

Erm…. okay.

[RedSparrows]

They don't have a problem with the same moribund, selfish ideas.

They have a problem when the electorate have decided their particular brand of moribund, selfish ideas aren't flavour of the month.

[Abernathy]

This is a great read by Ian Dunt. I do urge you to take a few minutes to read it.

https://iandunt.substack.com/p/the-empt ... enrick-b50

[Bones McCoy]

I have no doubt Jenrick is "On manoeuvres".

He has the bulk of the print media lionising his agitprop "videos about litter".
Comments on ConservativeHome are supportive.
His party leader is cautious about contradicting him (who is the de-facto leader here).


The big challenge ahead for Honest Bob is one of judgement and timing.
We might question his judgement, and certainly his morals, but the big decision lies ahead.

The Tory brand remains in free-fall.
Is Honest Bob really burning all this energy to win leadership of the third, fourth or fifth party in the country.
Does he imagine that his charisma and talent (YMMV) will turn that decline are restore the "Natural party of government".
That won't be at all easy, and involves herding the mutinous buffoons who remain in the Parliamentary party.

Is there a longer game?
Establish his brand as a Shadow minister, then follow so many colleagues to Reform as the "Biggest defection evva!!".

That won't be easy either, and faces at last as many challenges.
For one, Farage is not given to double acts, and runs a rapid turnover of names (both of party and budding co-stars).

In reform, Jenrick will also rub shoulders with some seriously unpleasant types.
You might say he loses his distinctive personal brand.


I propose, there's one sweet spot, a gap that might pen and provide opportunity.
If Farage decides to step down, Reform will need a new leader.
Ben Habib and Zia Yusuf need not apply (obvs).
Who knows how the membership (membership - fuck em) react to Richard Tice's Dubai residence.

Competition will be stiff, but Reform's opaque internal process guarantee a stitch up.
No risk of the brownshirt factions taking over.
Can Jenrick position himself as Farage's anointed successor?
We dn't know enough to say yet.
Here's what we do know.

* Jenrick has refrained from criticism of Farage or Reform.
* Farage and Jenrick's people might be in touch (on the quiet).
* Jenrick is working hard to maintain his own profile.
* Farage shows no signs of stepping aside - and has no natural successor in place.


That's all folks, draw your own conclusions.