[Killer Whale]

There's a long, long way to go, but Labour support seems to be tanking ahead of next year's Senedd elections. Cue the Baroness attempting to flood some clear red water between herself and the party in Westminster.

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-05- ... t-itv-poll

Labour support in Wales has slumped to its lowest since the start of devolution, according to an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll which suggests Plaid Cymru and Reform UK will battle to be the biggest party at the 2026 Senedd election.

The Barn Cymru poll, conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share - 18% - would be their worst result since the advent of devolution 26 years ago if replicated at next year's Senedd election.

The poll shows a large increase in Plaid Cymru’s vote share, which climbs to 30%, while the support for Reform has also continued to surge to 25%.

Given that Reform don't have so much as an official spokesperson in Wales, let alone anyone trusted enough to be leader, it seems that they're content to remain a cult surrounding the Dear Leader for as long as possible. Heaven only knows what kind of native weirdos and carpetbagging grifters from over the border they are going to get to stand, particularly as their English councillors start to realise that there's actual work to be done once you get past the glamorous bit in the municipal sports halls and leisure centres.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Reform in the Senedd will be basically"Abolish this place", I presume, like they were in the European Parliament. Maybe Andrea Jenkyns wants to abolish the Lincolnshire Mayoralty, but they can't really run Lincolnshire County Council like they want it abolished.

[Youngian]

Voting for Plaid, LDs or Greens to protest against Labour welfare cuts is one thing but Farage! Must be off their rockers.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That 25% will be considerably higher in South Wales, which will do about as well out of welfare cuts as County Durham.

[Killer Whale]

Just a bit of fun at this stage, but bloody hell.

[mattomac]

Only good thing is the Tory seat count would be so low and Plaid the biggest party that it kills off any coalition, I do think this might be their high point. Labour will probably benefit from the expansion.

Obvious would be a Plaid/Labour coalition but I can see these numbers slightly change over the next year.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Plaid First Munister would be a formidable political problem for Labour. Not least because “Wales doesn’t get the money it should” is completely correct.

[Youngian]

Plaid unlike Labour is also in a position to point out Wales gets less funds than it did as an EU member. So Farage can fuck off as well.

[mattomac]

Maybe they deserve to, they obviously get shafted by the Bartlett Formula

[Killer Whale]

[Youngian]

Disappponinting for Labour but Plaid's victory in the Caerphilly by election on a higher than average turnout is heartening if the reason for it is to pile in on a single candidate to stop Farage.

[Killer Whale]

My initial thoughts:

Reform threw everything at this, including busloads of activists from England and multiple visits from Farage. There was also clear activity by Russian bots on the socials, particularly Facebook. The broadcast media continue to give them the easiest of scrutiny-free rides. Yet they still struggle to get over a third of the votes in what should be a depressed, post-industrial, overwhelmingly white, shoo-in for them. I've always regarded this as their ceiling - a combination of nasty bastards, 'fuck everything' voters and protest dustbin votes. This is as good as it will ever get for them.*

For all the triumphalism (give us the day or two, though, after all that work) we (Plaid) need to remember that tactical voting was significant in this victory. We can't bang on (least of all to ourselves) about how the voters chose Plaid when a large part of our campaign was about voting tactically. Having said that, all of the 'Labour for 100 years' stuff is exaggerated anyway - Plaid have run the local authority several times over the past few decades.

The Tories are dead. There is nowhere for people to go who believe in letting enterprise free and restricting government, but are nevertheless not bastards. Will the Lib Dems try to mop theses people up, or will they see disaffected Labour voters as more attractive?

UKIP and Gwlad (right wing Welsh nats.) should give up now. Please.

*Feel free to @ me next year.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Well done to Plaid. Main thing is Reform were beaten and they were beaten pretty well. I’d have voted for them there too.

[Youngian]

Leanne Wood took the Rhonda senned seat from Labour so this isn't quite new breakthrough territory for Plaid.
Reform also had a presentable candidate (Welsh speaker with family roots in mining and NHS) instead of a knobhead loon like Neil Hamilton and still lost.

The Lib Dem demise in Wales is curious considering there has been a radical liberal Methodist tradition.
An Alex Salmond type strategy could see Plaid pick up saner free market Tory votes. Crafty Alec would point to independent Baltic States and Ireland as successful nimble niche economies to emulate. Wales is a lot nearer to Ireland's superferry ports than east Scotland.

[Killer Whale]

Sorry to be a prick, but it's Rhondda and Senedd. Those mis-spellings are like fingernails down a blackboard.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I wonder to what degree Reform hitting the constituency motivate turnout against them? I'm not taking anything away from what must have been a wonderful local effort by Plaid. I'm just contrasting it with North Herefordshire, where the Tories didn't have the capacity to fight for the seat properly. If Reform can lose by a decent while throwing the kitchen sink at it, then that may say something interesting too. People know both who to vote for and who to vote against.

My position for a while has been that PR is better but that no bulwark against Farage, and changing the electoral system (or indeed the constitution) to try and stop him would backfire. And I think people have got pretty good at tactical voting.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Since the Coalition, the Lib Dems have been basically Brecon and Radnor and nowhere else. Conceivable they might become competitive in Montgomeryshire again, but they came fourth last time. I'm sure Labour, who won, won't bother next time, there's also a decent Plaid vote, who will probably prioritize other places. I can see "Lib Dems winning here" working.

[Tubby Isaacs]

About the only bit where the Tories did OK in the local elections was Buckinghamshire, where I'd guess there was more affection for a "party of business" than in places where Reform romped home. What happens to that if you become a primarily a party of headbangers? My guess is that the Lib Dems benefit, like they already did in Shropshire, Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire, with Reform getting the headbangers anyway. Talking of headbangers, Steve Baker was a headbanger on some issues, but to his credit, not on race. He'd have not campaigned on this stuff in High Wycombe.

[Youngian]

Steve Baker was refreshingly honest about how Brexit had changed Tory fortunes in his constituency and forecast a gloomy future for the Conservatives. Correctly.

[Youngian]

but it's Rhondda a

So it is, too much Beach Boys on my part. Good of you to help me.