Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Is Bone spurs Don going to commit the US into a prolonged jungle war? Or withdraw next week, leave Maduro's deputy in charge and tell Maga he's won again?

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 04, 2026 3:27 pm It has an army of approximately 100,000 troops, all of whom (plus the majority of its people) are Maduro loyalists.

What's your source for that Andy? I ask because the opposition won the last election with 70% of the vote.

Oboogie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 04, 2026 4:46 pm

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 04, 2026 3:27 pm It has an army of approximately 100,000 troops, all of whom (plus the majority of its people) are Maduro loyalists.

What's your source for that Andy? I ask because the opposition won the last election with 70% of the vote.

Yes, Maduro's deep unpopularity, and general shittiness was, I thought, the one feather in the imperialist cap the US is currently wearing?

Wall Street Journal. Consider also the unifying effect an attack on sovereignty can have (e.g. Falklands).

Youngian wrote: ↑Sun Jan 04, 2026 3:48 pm Is Bone spurs Don going to commit the US into a prolonged jungle war? Or withdraw next week, leave Maduro's deputy in charge and tell Maga he's won again?

Only time will tell.

The initial operation has (to borrow a phrase) "Developed necessarily to America's advantage".
* Quick.
* Clean (as in none of their boys in body bags).
* A demonstrable objective - Prisoners brought home.

There's another phrase "Easy to start a war, hard to clean up afterwards".

Consider America's poor track record in nation building or stabilisation following its invasions.
* Top marks for the Marshall plan (with a few notable exceptions).
* Mostly downhill form there.

From whet we've seen, the peacekeeping that follows is only getting more expensive and more people intensive.

A point will come where US taxpayers will look at te price of "Operation Run Venezuela".
They will be paying, gas at the pumps won't be cheaper, but Texaco / Amoco or whatever they trade as this decade will be breaking records.
It won't play well with the MAGA lot.


Now Maybe Trump's brains trust have a cunning plan to avoid the historic traps.
Maybe there's a way that big AI can police the streets, run a nation and reinstate the oil infrastructure.
Maybe Elon Musk has promised that it's feasible in a couple of years for a few hundred billion.

I have my doubts.

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 04, 2026 5:18 pm Wall Street Journal. Consider also the unifying effect an attack on sovereignty can have (e.g. Falklands).

Oh sure, a common enemy is a great unifier (though I'd suggest Ukraine is a closer example than the Falklands) and sympathy for Maduro will have increased overnight. I'd still be interested to see the WSJ's workings, 70% voting for your opponent is hardly a ringing endorsement.

Next on the list.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g0zg974v1o

Mette Frederiksen said "it makes absolutely no sense to talk about the need for the United States to take over Greenland", adding: "The US has no right to annex any of the three nations in the Danish kingdom".

Her remarks come after Katie Miller - the wife of one of Trump's aides, Stephen Miller - tweeted a map of Greenland in the colours of the American flag alongside the word "SOON".

Maybe Canada can invade Alaska, in order to protect it. “border” with Russia

Your move Don, boots on the ground needed?

OFFICIAL STATEMENT OF THE BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA ON U.S. INVASION OF ITS SOVEREIGN TERRITORY

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela rejects, condemns, and denounces before the international community the extremely grave military aggression carried out by the current Government of the United States of America against Venezuelan territory and population, targeting both civilian and military locations in the city of Caracas, the capital of the Republic, as well as the states of Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira.

This act constitutes a flagrant violation of the Charter of the United Nations, particularly Articles 1 and 2, which enshrine respect for sovereignty, the legal equality of States, and the prohibition of the use of force. Such aggression threatens international peace and stability, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, and places the lives of millions of people at serious risk.

The objective of this attack is none other than the seizure of Venezuela’s strategic resources, particularly its oil and mineral wealth, through an attempt to forcibly undermine the Nation’s political independence.

They will not succeed. After more than two hundred years of independence, the people and their legitimate Government remain steadfast in the defense of sovereignty and the inalienable right to determine their own destiny. The attempt to impose a colonial war in order to destroy the republican form of government and force a so-called “regime change,” in alliance with the fascist oligarchy, will fail, just as all previous attempts have failed.

Since 1811, Venezuela has confronted and defeated empires. When foreign powers bombarded our coasts in 1902, President Cipriano Castro proclaimed: “The insolent foot of the foreigner has profaned the sacred soil of the Fatherland.” Today, with the moral strength of Bolivar, Miranda, and our liberators, the Venezuelan people rise once again to defend their independence in the face of imperial aggression.

PEOPLE TO THE STREETS

The Bolivarian Government calls upon all social and political forces of the country to activate mobilization plans and to repudiate this imperialist attack.

The people of Venezuela and their Bolivarian National Armed Force, in perfect popular–military–police unity, are fully deployed to guarantee sovereignty and peace. At the same time, the Bolivarian Diplomacy of Peace will submit the corresponding complaints before the United Nations Security Council, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, CELAC, and the Non-Aligned Movement, demanding the condemnation of and accountability from the Government of the United States.

President Nicolas Maduro has ordered all national defence plans to be placed at full readiness, to be implemented at the appropriate time and under the appropriate circumstances, in strict accordance with the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, the Organic Law on States of Exception, and the Organic Law on National Security.

Accordingly, President Nicolas Maduro has signed and ordered the implementation of the Decree declaring a State of External Emergency throughout the national territory, in order to protect the rights of the population, ensure the full functioning of republican institutions, and immediately transition to armed struggle. The entire country must be activated to defeat this imperialist aggression.

Likewise, he has ordered the immediate deployment of the Command for the Integral Defence of the Nation and the Integral Defence Leadership Bodies in all states and municipalities of the country.

In strict accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, Venezuela reserves the right to exercise legitimate self-defence in order to protect its people, its territory, and its independence. We call upon the peoples and governments of Latin America, the Caribbean, and the world to mobilise in active solidarity in the face of this imperial aggression.

As stated by Supreme Commander Hugo Chavez Frías: “In the face of any new circumstance of difficulty, whatever its magnitude, the response of all patriots must be unity, struggle, battle, and victory.”

Caracas, January 3, 2026

Some clever echoes of the Declaration of Independence 1776 in there.


I've seen a few pieces exploring how Venezuelan events affect the world picture.
I don't have the depth of knowledge to know which are accurate.
But I spotted two interesting themes.

The dominant one is "This is bad for Putin" suggesting anything from significant interests to outright dependence on Venezuelan oil.

A rather limited one among the sort of chaps who wear MCC ties was.
That's knocked Venezuela's claims over 60% of Guyana for six.

The best result for Europe is for Venezuela and its allies to give the US military a good hiding with their substantial Russian hardware. Maybe Trump might consider that Putin is not his friend and needs to level the score with renewed backing for Ukraine.

Well that Russian hardware did bugger all to stop them kidnapping the president.

Yeah, that can be a problem when you've got two kleptocrats working together on defence procurement. I'm sure some supporters of the respective presidents have done well out of it, mind.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 05, 2026 12:28 pm Well that Russian hardware did bugger all to stop them kidnapping the president.

Politics aside it was a very impressive snatch operation considering the US’s history of bungled operations in Cuba.

I can see this going down like a mug of diarrhoea with the tax-hostile American electorate:

Trump suggests US taxpayers could reimburse oil firms for Venezuela investment

What's he hoping for - a return of the beautiful days of 89¢ a gallon ?

Good luck with that: several major US oil companies have already said they're not getting involved.

Part of the problem is that Venezuelan reserves are heavy crude - you need specialist refineries to crack that stuff, otherwise it's pretty much useless. Not much of a market for it either, outside of China and Africa.

The USA is currently in the position the Brinks-Mat robbers found themselves in - lumbered with something they can't realise into actual spending money.

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 06, 2026 11:21 am Part of the problem is that Venezuelan reserves are heavy crude - you need specialist refineries to crack that stuff, otherwise it's pretty much useless.

That's what I heard too - and I believe it has a high sulphur content as well. Think I heard it being discussed on the radio yesterday?

My partner is an analyst for the oil industry, specialising in the Americas.

She's having a busy few days, but yes - this is looking very shaky for Trump already.

A more authoritative answer than we could hope for - thanks