[Tubby Isaacs]

Heck.

Not much damage to Farage, sadly, seeing he's gone from the party. And of course it'll be "just the same as Streeting's donors" or something

[Killer Whale]

He was a big player in UKIP/Brexit Party circles, and not just in Wales. But Farage will brush it off and that will be that.

[Abernathy]

A worrying thought just entered my brain: Could the fact that Reform UK are leading all the opinion polls and apparently (according to John Curtice) would be the government if the general election had been held today be attributed at least in part to Labour’s decision not to talk about Brexit, and in particular the damage the UK economy sustained as a direct consequence of it, instead of reminding everyone constantly that Nigel Farage was perhaps THE principal advocate of that madness. ? Yep, Nigel Farage, the man people supposedly now want as their next prime minister .


Fuck.

[Boiler]

I think most ordinary people have moved on from Brexit, Abers.

I'm probably the exception on this forum, but Brexit has made precisely fuck all difference to my life - which isn't saying much. Others, I know it will have impacted, and seriously.

[Andy McDandy]

Boiling frog syndrome. Brexit impacted - in most areas - gradually. If the impacts and changes we've experienced over the last 9 years had happened overnight, we'd have been begging to get back in. Probably Fargle included.

[Youngian]

A worrying thought just entered my brain: Could the fact that Reform UK are leading all the opinion polls and apparently (according to John Curtice) would be the government if the general election had been held today be attributed at least in part to Labour’s decision not to talk about Brexit, and in particular the damage the UK economy sustained as a direct consequence of it, instead of reminding everyone constantly that Nigel Farage was perhaps THE principal advocate of that madness. ? Yep, Nigel Farage, the man people supposedly now want as their next prime minister .


Fuck.

The Brexit shit show has been branded as 'Tory mismanagement.' Farage is dividing the country again anyway, so Starmer has little to lose bringing Brexit into play. He won't but wish he would as Burnham is and I don't want to warm to his shenanigans.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm not sure about that. Hard to attack Brexit without attacking the majority of voters. "Not your fault, you were taken in by a lying idiot" is about the most flattering line you can take. And anyway what's Starmer supposed to do about it?

There will in 2029 be a record of re-engagement to run on, and Farage's disengagement probably won't look very clever. He can't pull the same "nothing will change, they'll still want to trade with us" lark.

[Boiler]

To this soul, discussing re-entry to the EU is futile right now; maybe in a generation things will be seen differently but all that will happen for at least twenty years will be just one lot saying "re-entry" whilst another will want Brexit Mk. 2.

I think Starmer has it about right: a slow re-engagement as Tubbs says which won't scare the horses but may improve co-operation in key areas like defence and research.

[Abernathy]

I'm not sure about that. Hard to attack Brexit without attacking the majority of voters. "Not your fault, you were taken in by a lying idiot" is about the most flattering line you can take. And anyway what's Starmer supposed to do about it?

Well, not really, because the narrow majority of voters duped into voting for Brexit in 2016 no longer exists. Older Leave voters have since died, and younger voters who would have been very likely to support Remain have now attained majority and joined the register of electors. Add to that that just about every survey of opinion since since 2020 has demonstrated a significant majority agreeing that Brexit was a dreadful mistake and favouring a reinstatement of the UK’s membership of the EU, as well as the government’s imminent implementation of voting at age 16, and “Farage pushed Brexit and cost our economy £140 billion. Why trust him with anything else?” doesn't look like such a hard message to take. As things stand, Farage is getting off scot-free for the damage he has done to the UK through his Brexit obsession, and he shouldn’t be. The point is that people seem to have forgotten this in jumping onto the “Farage for PM” bandwagon, and it might go some way towards helping Labour’s position to put some forceful reminders of who Farage really is out there.

[Youngian]

What narrative can Reeves and Starmer produce as to why borrowing is more expensive than EEA member countries and our economy shadows them but is slightly worse than the EU average? '14 years of Tory mismanagement' easily turns into Labour are just as shite if you don't level with people.

[davidjay]

Boiling frog syndrome. Brexit impacted - in most areas - gradually. If the impacts and changes we've experienced over the last 9 years had happened overnight, we'd have been begging to get back in. Probably Fargle included.

And now we have a situation where everything wrong with the country, from rising prices to the bus being late, is the fault of the 0.000083% of the population who got here on dinghies.

[Tubby Isaacs]

What narrative can Reeves and Starmer produce as to why borrowing is more expensive than EEA member countries and our economy shadows them but is slightly worse than the EU average? '14 years of Tory mismanagement' easily turns into Labour are just as shite if you don't level with people.

Reeves and Starmer can't really say anything at the moment with the unholy alliance ranged against them. But imagine that they did this narrative, and what Farage would say in return. He'd say that even with Reeves's job tax and small boats (or any other talking point he chose) we were still growing faster than Germany, France and Italy, with much less youth unemployment than Spain. I have no doubt Brexit has cost, but it's something you can't really prove to "man in the street" standards.

Better to reset over time (you can't do any more, no EU leaders are even saying they really want us back in the thick of it) and then run on Farage would chuck it all away.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Well, not really, because the narrow majority of voters duped into voting for Brexit in 2016 no longer exists. Older Leave voters have since died, and younger voters who would have been very likely to support Remain have now attained majority and joined the register of electors. Add to that that just about every survey of opinion since since 2020 has demonstrated a significant majority agreeing that Brexit was a dreadful mistake and favouring a reinstatement of the UK’s membership of the EU, as well as the government’s imminent implementation of voting at age 16, and “Farage pushed Brexit and cost our economy £140 billion. Why trust him with anything else?” doesn't look like such a hard message to take. As things stand, Farage is getting off scot-free for the damage he has done to the UK through his Brexit obsession, and he shouldn’t be. The point is that people seem to have forgotten this in jumping onto the “Farage for PM” bandwagon, and it might go some way towards helping Labour’s position to put some forceful reminders of who Farage really is out there.

Straightaway, you said "duped". Perhaps there are still very large numbers of voters in Labour "heartlands" who actually haven't changed their minds? Perhaps they know exactly who Farage is already?

[Abernathy]

Not what every opinion poll since 2020 has indicated.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The trouble is that people who say they regret Brexit include people who think their Brexit was fucked up. One person who has said that is Nigel Farage himself.

And it begs the question- if it's so bad, what are you doing to fix it? Some incremental trade deals don't really cut it in terms of big narrative. But in terms of progress over time, they should work in terms of "you want to chuck this all out?" I don't think people will.

[Abernathy]

Farage is a liar. There is no “Brexit done right”, and there never could be. My point is that Farage is squarely to blame in very large part for the damage that this country has suffered from Brexit, and should not be permitted to have that forgotten as he blazes a path to number ten - as appears to be happening now.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Your point is also that people who voted for Brexit were too dumb to see through a liar. That's the problem.

[Abernathy]

No, it isn’t. Well, it is, but it isn’t the main point. And didn’t you mean are too dumb to see through a liar? Not were?

Mind you, I suppose it’s just about conceivable that the opinion polls have all got it completely wrong and the people that still love Brexit in every way actually outnumber the people that now realise that it was an appalling mistake and would like it reversed, but I really don’t think so. The problem is specifically reminding those voters of the direct link between the Brexit shit and the alleged hero/saviour Farage. I think that needs to be done, whether it raises the hackles of the die-hard Brexiters or not.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Think “were” too dumb is quite enough of a sticky wicket.

One’s point is whatever the media can frame it as, unfortunate. One of which would be that without Brexit, you couldn’t be doing the immigration control that most voters want.

The example of Trump makes me wary too. We all thought (at least before the election was getting near) that people would “see through him” the second time.

[Abernathy]

The example of Trump makes me wary too. We all thought (at least before the election was getting near) that people would “see through him” the second time.

Yeah, get that. Just as I had thought it inconceivable that the USA could elect President Trump 2.0, until they did, I find the very notion of Prime Minister Farage unconscionable. But opinion polling makes it seem as though the great British electorate does not share my revulsion. Which leads me to wondering how we can correct that apparent aberration. PM Starmer seems to share my view, correctly characterising Farage/Reform as “the enemy” and a real threat to the prosperity and well-being of our nation. I hope Sir Keir’s political strategy team have something uptheirsleeve.