Mailwatch(ed) Forum

I'm losing the will to live with this government. They laid the groundwork for raising income tax with that speech a few weeks ago only to do another U-turn. They really are making themselves look incompetent and without an economic plan. At the start of the year I had high hopes and enthusiasm for Starmer and his government but that's all but evaporated now. I wish we had proportional representation.

Maybe comparing the DPP to an American state prosecutor is not valid as the latter is a much more political role. Politics is littered with people that had run large organisations who believed their skills are transferable to political leadership and weren’t, especially business people. Don't quite know why.
Heard Gove warning opponents not to underestimate Starmer as he doesn't make mistakes twice. Having Mystic Mike Gove big you up is the kiss of death.

Bond market doesn’t like the news income tax won’t rise.

Freezing the thresholds gets you somewhere to where they need to be. But that’s a worse policy and more regressive than raising those with inflation and increasing the rate.

Unless there’s something big with eg the triple lock being suspended, this looks like a disaster.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Nov 14, 2025 8:20 am Bond market doesn’t like the news income tax won’t rise.

Guardian BTL seems obsessed with bond markets.

And some of the ATL too, mostly in the mistaken sense that they don't matter.

The silly thing about this is that had the OBR downgraded productivity earlier, when it could well have done, Hunt couldn't have ratfucked the new government with his NI cuts.

I can only think of fuel duty as something substantial that they didn't promise to raise. And perhaps gambling is getting a really big increase.

There seems to be lots of "pasty tax" criticism of doing small rises/changes. I'm not quite sure why these were said to be such a bad thing in themselves. As with farms, school fees etc, you'll come up against lots of lobby groups. but there are anomalies in things like VAT.

What these aren't of course is big revenue raisers. See the bond reaction to this.

Rather indicative of the reporting here.

While Alex Wickham from Bloomberg reports that a better-than-expected fiscal forecast has allowed Rachel Reeves to drop the plan to raise income tax in the budget (see 9.03am), other explanations are also being offered. This is from an analysis from Beth Rigby, Sky News’s political editor.

I understand Downing Street has backed down amid fears about the backlash from disgruntled MPs and voters.
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Wouldn't a better fiscal forecast be good news? Beth's got her "Labour forced by backlash" in though.

Whether there's a better fiscal forecast or not, raise taxes, stop everything falling to bits.

Don't do this.

Treasury considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax in budget, after ruling out basic rate hike

Ball is an irritating know-all at times.

I think it's clear that last night's briefing (quite deliberate, nobody should argue with that) was a mistake, and is currently costing us money in the bond market. But they didn't actually "brief out" that income tax would rise, just that they might. This is all consistent with what Alex Wickham says about a better than expected OBR forecast. I just hope the alternatives are better than cutting thresholds (though the higher one could come down a bit, Jeremy Hunt cut it before). Does Ball or anyone else know what's actually happening?

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Nov 14, 2025 10:52 am Don't do this.

Treasury considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax in budget, after ruling out basic rate hike

What does that even mean? That everyone pays the same flat rate, that doesn't even work with the idea that it should fall on the broadest of shoulders.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Nov 14, 2025 10:43 am Rather indicative of the reporting here.

While Alex Wickham from Bloomberg reports that a better-than-expected fiscal forecast has allowed Rachel Reeves to drop the plan to raise income tax in the budget (see 9.03am), other explanations are also being offered. This is from an analysis from Beth Rigby, Sky News’s political editor.

I understand Downing Street has backed down amid fears about the backlash from disgruntled MPs and voters.
Share

Wouldn't a better fiscal forecast be good news? Beth's got her "Labour forced by backlash" in though.

Whether there's a better fiscal forecast or not, raise taxes, stop everything falling to bits.

Pippa crear had something similar.

.

James Chapman responds to James Ball. Worth reading the thread, where you see the list of stuff that's supposedly going to be raised is pretty extensive. He suggests that very little of this has been briefed by Reeves or The Treasury. I'm still not clear where the briefing that income tax was definitely rising was. He may well be right that lots of this stuff is no more than guesswork.

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Nov 14, 2025 12:06 pm
What does that even mean? That everyone pays the same flat rate, that doesn't even work with the idea that it should fall on the broadest of shoulders.

It would mean that the 40p rate would start at a lower rate than now, so a tax rise in effect, but a particularly sneaky looking one. The basic rate up until that new starting point would be the same.

Not sure that helps anyone.

This is as poor as the Conservatives drip feeding their budgets, eithier put it out there so people can plan or say fuck all.

It's been ruled out. Would have been a terrible idea, because not uprating thresholds with inflation is already a tax rise.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Nov 14, 2025 12:49 pm It's been ruled out. Would have been a terrible idea, because not uprating thresholds with inflation is already a tax rise.

Yup, it's a silly idea so thankfully it's been ruled out. The best option was to increase income tax and lower NI, you'd get bleating but at least you'd generate to give yourself room. Not sure why you'd float the increase for so long then drop it.

This particular idea may not have been very seriously floated. Unlike the briefing on income tax, this might have been someone knows somebody who said in Pret...

In other news, and perhaps a sign I need to spend less time on Bluesky, here's an old favourite.

Hard to know who he means here, if he hasn't just made it up, but the staunchest defenders of Starmer are surely those who agreed with what he said before the election about Brexit. Nobody could seriously have taken that as some sort of expansive Rejoin agenda that was ditched on getting into Downing Street.

Like a few people who built up clicks on the back of being a staunch Remainer, Edwin's got no actual interest in what's happening. Does he read David Henig, Steve Peers, UK In A Changing Europe? The agreement with the EU member states on the negotiating mandate (checks nots) this actual week isn't consistent with "nothing can be done". Nor is the work on alignment, which has stepped up since the election. What does he think all the meeting with EU leaders is about?

Increasingly I think this element of social media is out of control, just like others. It's not informed good faith criticism. Sure, the Government could certainly sell what it's doing better- though there have been very high profile occasions, like the last Budget and doubtless this one, where it has. I don't blame the general public getting this impression, but people who masquerade as political commentators need to do much better.

I often wonder how many of these types of people delivered a leaflet or canvassed a railway station or high street during the referendum.

Seems far more of them nowadays than there was.