[Killer Whale]

Hmmm... Most of the South Wales Metro funding came from either Wales or the EU. Westminster's not going to be paying the EU share of that kind of thing again. Not when it can build a railway from London to Birmingham and pretend that it's an EnglandandWales project.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It is an England-Wales project though, because rail isn't devolved to Wales like it is to Scotland. There's no such thing as an England rail project. Admittedly the impression given by Labour in opposition that a load of Barnett consequentials were due was, to say the least, not very helpful.

Wales is more like a more powerful metro mayoralty than Scotland. There's about £200m from Westminster for the South Wales Metro, you're right, a small proportion.

[Killer Whale]

The problem with 'Englandandwales' is that we've got 5% of the rail infrastructure and historically 1% of the investment. Which is why we had to stump up for the South Wales Metro out of the Barnett block grant, with obvious knock-on effects for the NHS and Social Care budgets.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That's all distorted by HS2, or rather the most expensive and complex bit of it being built. I'd say there are good reasons for this being treated as a special case. Take it out and you get, well, still a figure that's too low. The current figure in the Comprehensive Spending Review isn't great either. There are some what were briefly called leveling up funds that should be available to replace the EU money.

The Welsh Government has certainly tried very hard with development, and deserves far more credit than it's got. Not just the SW Wales metro, the A465 is an excellent project. I believe that was to be UK funded before Cameron and Clegg cancelled it.

[Killer Whale]

https://willhaywardwales.substack.com/p ... -for-wales

According to the polling this is what Senedd voting intention (excluding non-voters and don’t knows) looks like:

Plaid Cymru - 33%
Reform UK - 30%
Labour - 10%
Conservatives - 10%
Green - 9%
Lib Dem - 6%
Other - 3%

So what would this mean in terms of seats? Well Cardiff Uni’s Dr Jac Larner’s seat projection shows:

Plaid Cymru - 39
Reform UK - 34
Labour - 10
Conservatives - 6
Green - 4
Lib Dem - 3

The magic number under the new Senedd system is 49. You need 49 seats to get a majority. As it is highly unlikely that one party will get that alone, parties will need to work together.

The headline figures are:

The Tories have lost 41% of their vote to Reform and a small amount to the Lib Dems.
Labour have lost 41% of their vote to Plaid with 10% also going to both the Greens and Reform.

Labour, particularly those in Westminster, have got to get it into their heads that far and away their biggest threat in Wales is coming from the left. Over 50% of their 2024 voters have gone to Plaid and the Greens. Just 10% are going to Reform. Being tough on immigration is hurting, not helping them.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I could certainly live with that as Assembly. Perhaps Plaid can wring more money out of central government than Welsh Labour got in the first two budgets.

I'm not a Will Hayward fan, as I've said before. Where were all these pro-immigration voters in 2016 or 2019? Looks like the Tories pulled a classic number on Labour, leaving them all the "boats" and "hotels", and then laughing as they tried to sort it out, except that Reform got the benefit, not the Tories. How many people in Wales support safe routes, ie claiming UK asylum in France? I can't see that being very popular anywhere.

I'm sure that some of the Labour stuff on eg carers and students has hurt them unnecessarily.

[Killer Whale]

I could certainly live with that as Assembly.

Parliament, mate, at least in English. Or Norman French. Or whatever.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Touche. I should have stuck with Senedd.

We'll likely be back in Wales while this government is sitting.

[mattomac]

I would expect a minority perhaps LD and Green's in with Plaid.

I expect Labour will get more than that but anything but Reform frankly at this moment.

[The Weeping Angel]

I could certainly live with that as Assembly. Perhaps Plaid can wring more money out of central government than Welsh Labour got in the first two budgets.

I'm not a Will Hayward fan, as I've said before. Where were all these pro-immigration voters in 2016 or 2019? Looks like the Tories pulled a classic number on Labour, leaving them all the "boats" and "hotels", and then laughing as they tried to sort it out, except that Reform got the benefit, not the Tories. How many people in Wales support safe routes, ie claiming UK asylum in France? I can't see that being very popular anywhere.

I'm sure that some of the Labour stuff on eg carers and students has hurt them unnecessarily.

Are Plaid running on a pro-migrant platform?

[Tubby Isaacs]

I assume that Reform are predicted to win a lot of South Wales constituency seats there. Is that nailed on? They attract tactical voting like nobody else.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Are Plaid running on a pro-migrant platform?

They support safe asylum routes.

[mattomac]

I assume that Reform are predicted to win a lot of South Wales constituency seats there. Is that nailed on? They attract tactical voting like nobody else.

Well that welsh by election in Caerphilly was right in the centre of that and they lost.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That's exactly what I'm thinking.

[Killer Whale]

The next Senedd election will be party list PR, so, as long as your chosen party exceeds the (admittedly quite high) threshold, all votes will count. Less need for tactical voting in those circumstances, though Lib Dems and Greens will have to consider it in some constituencies.