[Killer Whale]

Could be an outlier, but I've felt for some time that Reform had reached their peak. There's only a certain percentage of nasty bastards out there, and even amongst them a good number want something a bit more than 'kick it all down'.

The work continues - there will be a large number of streets to trudge down before May - but it looks like there is less and less chance of a Reform breakthrough as voters lose the 'feels' and face the reality.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'll settle for that. Interesting that the Tories haven't benefited from Reform doing worse in that poll.

[Killer Whale]

The Cardiff University analysis seems to suggest that Plaid and the Greens are hoovering up all the Don't Knows.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It is possible that there comes a time when, despite what we're always told, Labour torching their own support on immigration does actually "work" in terms of undercutting Reform. There's very little else Reform can talk about with the same (bogus) authority. Even woke doesn't really cut it, because more than a few Reform-types will feel a sense of deja vu. With good reason, it's exactly the same as political correctness, before and after it went mad.

Now, perhaps Labour could manage to undercut Reform without chucking away easy growth from university students...

[Killer Whale]

Didn't know whether this was a Tory or Reform story, so it's going here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0erdwrp972o

A prominent Welsh Tory is being kicked out of his party for telling his party leader he was thinking about defecting to Reform UK.

James Evans has been removed from the shadow cabinet and had the whip withdrawn making him an independent, Tory Senedd leader Darren Millar has said.

Millar said he did so on Tuesday morning "after being informed by James that he was continuing to engage with Reform representatives about the possibility of defecting to the party in spite of his personal assurances on Friday that he had rejected an approach they initiated last week".

In a statement, Evans confirmed he was being ousted from the party which he said no longer represents his values.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Tories have become much more like Reform now than in 2021 when he won his seat. I suggest that Mr Evans' values are mainly about having the best chance of being elected.