[Oboogie]

Go and start campaigning in Gorton they said, what did 30p Lee do instead?

Enjoy.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Not a local poll, but a national one.

Like the Lib Dems tend to in by-elections, the Greens will probably do better than their national polling in Gorton and Denton, simply by being noticed by people who haven't noticed them before. But there are risks in that. How much of the electorate thinks "yeah, leave NATO and scrap our nukes, because Putin will" or "let's just print a load of money, that always works"? Are that many people bothered about the Government being "complicit" over Palestine, when they've actually recognized the country now? And will Galloway and pick up that rump of voters anyway?

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (+1)
LAB: 21% (+2)
CON: 17% (-1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 14% (=)

Via @YouGov, 25-26 Jan.

We'll find out.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Goodwin

I will stand up for the local people of Gorton and Denton against the broken Westminster establishment. I will demand Britain fixes its borders, invests in our National Health Service, and clamps down on crime and antisocial behaviour.

So far so standard. I wonder if we'll see any "left on the economy" in his campaign. He kept telling people to read his book, because it was in there, it was just an unfortunate fluke that he spent all his time on "right on culture". He's certainly got the chance to project that now.

Except he almost certainly won't. Even if he ever believed it himself, it's not remotely the vision of Farage and his new defectors.

[Abernathy]

Labour has put five local Manchester councillors on its long list for selection as its by-election candidate :

Rabnawaz Akbar
Abid Latif Chohan
Angelika Stogia
Julie Reid
Eamonn O’Brien.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Labour seem to be going properly for Goodwin and Farage. While some communication has definitely been Reform-like, there's a mile between the Government and Reform, despite what lots of people with memes tell you. The Greens have their candidate, who was their candidate for Greater Manchester Mayor. who is called Hannah Spencer. I was thinking of Mel Horrocks (now Earp) who ran in 2021.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Mel Horrocks earned some credit with me for supporting HS2 when very few Greens did. Just watched a video where she, to her credit, says that she changed her view after HS2 sent her some stuff to read. Most wouldn't have read it, but she did and became a supporter of the project.

I don't know if anyone is sending Zack stuff like this. Perhaps he's sticking with YouTubers.

[The Weeping Angel]

Tommy Robinson has now endorsed Matt Goodwin.

[davidjay]

A couple of important points may come out of that - how far will Reform go in courting the far-right vote, and what do their voters think of Tommy T-N?

[Tubby Isaacs]

What is it with politicians writing letters all the time? Did that happen in the past? I don't remember that it did. Farage and Goodwin are smart enough to draw a line with Tommy on the wrong side of it. Farage did it before, leaving that bit of terrain to Rupert Lowe. Rupert's a big earner from Twitter, but his party would probably lose to Farage Reform in his own seat.

Forget letters, hit them hard in the by-election. Goodwin is supported by Tommy Robinson. He is. Doesn't matter what Goodwin or Farage say.

[Tubby Isaacs]

A couple of important points may come out of that - how far will Reform go in courting the far-right vote, and what do their voters think of Tommy T-N?

My guess is that most of them don't like coked up football hooligans, and that Farage knows that. UKIP were sometimes called "the BNP in blazers", but we shouldn't underestimate the importance of the blazers. The far right were always associated with yobs in the UK and it was a massive drag on them. I'd be amazed if Reform were to risk their "respectability" by getting publicly close to Tommy and pals.

Of course, "respectability" is relative. The Spectator, Telegraph, Times now peddle filth that they wouldn't have done before. That's a milieu Farage is very happy with.