[Youngian]

I'd recommend Steve Richards' Rock n Roll Politics, he's a very knowledgeable long in the tooth political correspondent not given to histrionics.

[Tubby Isaacs]

From one of the good Guardian BTLers.

The PM needs a miracle to stay say ministers. And there you have it. Johnson had scandal after scandal, but did you hear the Tories trash him. Farage has scandal too. Do you hear Reform telling him to stand down. Starmer's own party just can't keep their gobs shut. They are out there adding to Starmers woes like they are the majority right wing press journalists. They could defend Starmer as other parties do and get round and support their leaders, but with Labour they come crawling out both left and some right to stick the boot in. I wonder if this were Johnson or Farage or Badenoch would you see the same reaction from the right wing press. Not on your life.

The Tories of course did get fed up with Johnson eventually, but the point stands.

I wonder about the opposition to Starmer, and what they think will change. There are some things that can be changed without spending money- sounding less harsh on immigration is one, though Starmer and Mahmood have already shifted emphasis away from that. A more liberal policy on visas for eg carers and students could actually have modest economic benefits. But this is the only area I can really think of where they can boost GDP and tax receipts.

There's also scope to shift some unpopular people. While the public mostly have no idea who Morgan McSweeney and Wes Streeting are, a new leader would be able to some buy in from activists and people currently supporting the Greens. The temptation to get rid of Reeves will be strong, but that's not likely to improve public finances. A replacement might have to be less expansive with spending that Reeves does.

They might renationalize some water companies. While Thames might be ripe for that very soon anyway under Starmer, they'd get some credit for doing it quickly. The other companies though aren't going to be cheap, and bills will remain high. This is because they're actually doing the investment now that they should have done before. The Government may not get much political credit for the nationalization. I'll be extremely generous and score nationalization of Thames Water and maybe one other as fiscally neutral.

Climate policy is already going well. Perhaps greater emphasis on it could win back voters from the Greens (who barely bother with it these days). But it's not the straightforward easy win that lots make out. Look at what it costs upfront and how long it takes for the benefit to feed through in lower bills. There's plenty of there for Reform and others to attack.

EU policy? Easy to sound more positive than Starmer about this, but I don't think the limit is so much Starmer being downbeat as what the EU are prepared to do with us, or indeed with how fast the EU moves when it's united (which it isn't).

Apart from that? Well, we're probably talking spending a lot more extra money, which doubtless people like. They like it less when they realize they're paying for it. Not an obvious easy way to more popularity there. I regularly make the point that other countries get modest earners to pay more tax. When I look at the lives of modest earners, and see what they already spend on housing, I realize why no UK politician makes that argument, and I feel a lot less clever.

To quote Pink Floyd, there's likely to be a lot of "skating on the thin ice of a new dawn". In about 18 months, perhaps Starmer looks rather better than he does now. "At least Sir Keir had a bit of gravitas in foreign affairs" and all that.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'd recommend Steve Richards' Rock n Roll Politics, he's a very knowledgeable long in the tooth political correspondent not given to histrionics.

I've got his turning points book. Have you read it?

[Youngian]

He refers to its content and don't buy his present comparison between this government and Ted Heath's which is unfair on both PMs. Heath's U turns were on fundamental economic strategy rather than a benefit cuts and bird bricks. But Heath had his eye on a huge prize, EEC entry. Starmer has no over arching project we know about that he's aiming for

[Yug]

To quote Pink Floyd, there's likely to be a lot of "skating on the thin ice of a new dawn". In about 18 months, perhaps Starmer looks rather better than he does now. "At least Sir Keir had a bit of gravitas in foreign affairs" and all that.

A pendant writes:

"Skating away on the thin ice of a new day" was by Jethro Tull, akshully.

[Tubby Isaacs]

To quote Pink Floyd, there's likely to be a lot of "skating on the thin ice of a new dawn". In about 18 months, perhaps Starmer looks rather better than he does now. "At least Sir Keir had a bit of gravitas in foreign affairs" and all that.

A pendant writes:

"Skating away on the thin ice of a new day" was by Jethro Tull, akshully.

Ah thanks. I've garbled that with "skating on the thin ice of modern life", which is Pink Floyd.

[Youngian]

"..skating on the thin ice of modern life," is the Pink Floyd line.

[The Weeping Angel]

I think he'll hold on, unless there's something very damning in the vetting documents. Mandelson was, after all, a well-connected former EU Trade Commissioner. It was far from the most off the wall appointment, even if he'd kept in touch with Epstein.

Anyone who wants his job should look at what'll be coming up. One thing that catches my eye is special needs education, which is the shit sandwich all of all shit sandwiches. Barring another significant tax rise, hard to see how a new leader wouldn't immediately be hit with stories of deserving people who've lost out. I think this is one I'd be happy to leave for Sir Keir. I only hope it doesn't flatten Bridget Philipson as well.

I can well imagine some SEND parents going to their papers with sufficient sad faces, saying how the government is picking on their children. Except the likes of Duncan-Jordan to be at the forefront.

[Tubby Isaacs]

MPs are well within their rights to raise cases of constituents, but you're entitled to expect balance too. At present, there are lots of parents who should get help who don't because they lack the money, contacts and stamina to fight their local councils. If the budget stays the same, you'd expect there to be some of those as well, and MPs should acknowledge this. But the Government will get it in the neck from everyone. Zack and Jez will say that a wealth tax pays for it all. Ed Davey will mention his customs union again. Kemi will say get the money off Vicky Pollard. And Farage will maybe say there's nothing wrong with most of these kids.