[kreuzberger]

At which point no fucks will be given apart from by a few in the scribbling class. Same goes for the Russian mob as they potentially edge towards a humungous 1.4% of seats.

[mattomac]

That bar chart is awful….

[Malcolm Armsteen]

San fairy ann...

[Youngian]

But now? So many factors in play. I genuinely have not the first clue who will win this contest.

I reckon the sodding Greens will win it.

Not the end of the world if that's the price for Reform losing. Greens have a likeable local councillor who can appeal to pissed off Labour voters. And if they can eat into Reform's anti politics dustbin vote than even better. Goodwin is a shiver looking for a spine to run up.

[The Weeping Angel]

Reform losing would be great, but having to put up with Zack Polanski being even more of a smug arsehole is hardly any better.

[Samanfur]

And then there's this guy:

Advance UK’s by-election candidate: ‘Many young British women are whores’

Nick Buckley, the Advance UK candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election, has posted a series of social media messages where he makes hugely insulting and derogatory claims about women.

In May 2025, Buckley wrote on X: “Many British young women are whores but don’t realise they are.”

In the same post, he claimed that “the days of morality & decorum are over,” adding that young women “make poor wives & poor mothers.” He further stated that they “contribute to the idea that all women are easy & can be abused.”

There are many such posts in his X feed. In one, he claimed that “feminism has NOTHING to do with the welfare of women,” describing it instead as “a Trade Union for ungrateful underperforming Western women” and asserting that “the more feminist policies we have, the more unhappy women become.”

[Killer Whale]

pROtecTin aRe WiMIn An guRlz

[Youngian]

That Buckley guy is a prolific Xer, he doesn't come across as very well in the head. High on the same supply as Ant Middleton.

[Watchman]

And then there's this guy:

Advance UK’s by-election candidate: ‘Many young British women are whores’

Nick Buckley, the Advance UK candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election, has posted a series of social media messages where he makes hugely insulting and derogatory claims about women.

In May 2025, Buckley wrote on X: “Many British young women are whores but don’t realise they are.”

In the same post, he claimed that “the days of morality & decorum are over,” adding that young women “make poor wives & poor mothers.” He further stated that they “contribute to the idea that all women are easy & can be abused.”

There are many such posts in his X feed. In one, he claimed that “feminism has NOTHING to do with the welfare of women,” describing it instead as “a Trade Union for ungrateful underperforming Western women” and asserting that “the more feminist policies we have, the more unhappy women become.”

Not like that nice Ms Braun

[Tubby Isaacs]

Reform losing would be great, but having to put up with Zack Polanski being even more of a smug arsehole is hardly any better.

He'll get found out. I can live with him winning.

[Tubby Isaacs]

With the huge caveat that Find Out Now are a poorly rated pollster and constituency by-election polls are extremely hard to get right.

On 25th to 27th January Find Out Now ran a poll of Gorton and Denton residents on behalf of Betterworld Ltd, ahead of the scheduled by-election, weighted to be representative by age, gender and 2024 General Election vote.

Final headline voting intention figures [excluding ‘Don’t know’]:

Reform UK: 36%
Labour Party: 33%
Green Party: 21%
Conservative Party: 8%
Liberal Democrats: 3%
Other: 0%

Though I don't like Polanski as a political operator at all (you may have already gathered) I couldn't really blame him for trying to win a by-election. But hey, I'd give him stick if this happened anyway, Could be useful to Labour in the long run.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Some people are saying that the Greens are really campaigning on abolishing tuition fees in Gorton and Reddish. It's not a particularly student area, so would be surprised if they got that many votes out of it. If I were them, I'd go for schools and pre-school as the priority. I noticed that Angela Rayner, with almost unique life experience, has argued for this.

But I'm sure it's a more promising message than their views on the economy, immigration and defence.

[The Weeping Angel]

With the huge caveat that Find Out Now are a poorly rated pollster and constituency by-election polls are extremely hard to get right.

On 25th to 27th January Find Out Now ran a poll of Gorton and Denton residents on behalf of Betterworld Ltd, ahead of the scheduled by-election, weighted to be representative by age, gender and 2024 General Election vote.

Final headline voting intention figures [excluding ‘Don’t know’]:

Reform UK: 36%
Labour Party: 33%
Green Party: 21%
Conservative Party: 8%
Liberal Democrats: 3%
Other: 0%

Though I don't like Polanski as a political operator at all (you may have already gathered) I couldn't really blame him for trying to win a by-election. But hey, I'd give him stick if this happened anyway, Could be useful to Labour in the long run.

That poll is dubious as it turns out it only contained 51 people.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Oh Christ.

[mattomac]

What? In reaction to the poll or?

Anyhow they were about 3-4% out with their poll in Runcorn, in which they record Labour poorly, which I ironically think is the case in their national polls.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Find Out Now, I think, disregard Don't Know voters. This tends to disadvantage the incumbents because they're more likely to lose voters to don't know and get them back in a General Election (or perhaps a by-election where Nigel Farage has been putting him in your face).

I think other posters count some don't knows as voters for parties they supported in the election.