[Tubby Isaacs]

John Rentoul's on hand with useful advice. The lesson you take from parties of the left/centre getting 61% is "don't move to the left". I think there's relatively little room to do that economically, but rhetorically, that's absolutely what they should do. You can think that net immigration needs to be reduced, and that people need to know you're doing it, but still think the current focus has gone too far.

[The Weeping Angel]

Will Hayward has thoughts.

https://willhaywardwales.substack.com/p ... irect=true

What this means for Labour
The Labour vote has totally and utterly collapsed. There is no sugar coating it, this is a catastrophic result for the party. If this level of support was replicated across Wales in May next year, they could end up with no seats.

These are the key lessons and takeaways the party needs to have:

Keir Starmer is a busted flush.

At no point in the run up to the vote did Keir Starmer come and campaign in Caerphilly. This is a seat which his party previously held with a huge majority yet the PM didn’t bother to show his face.

One might think, given the really tragic circumstances that led to this byelection, the leader of the Labour Party might want to come be in the area to support his fellow party members. By contrast Nigel Farage has been in the area campaigning. So has Rhun ap Iorwerth. So has Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar. But Keir Starmer never did.

There could be two reasons for this. Either he is seen as so electorally toxic that he will do more harm than good. Or he doesn’t really see Wales as a priority. Either way, this is a terrible state of affairs for Labour.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Or he knew they were losing anyway, and gave Plaid a clear run. How did Darren Millar's campaigning go?

I've not been impressed by Will Hayward in the past.

[The Weeping Angel]

Or he knew they were losing anyway, and gave Plaid a clear run. How did Darren Millar's campaigning go?

I've not been impressed by Will Hayward in the past.

I mean, I don't recall Ed Davey or Kemi going down there either. I've come across a few of his articles for the Guardian, and he's got an axe to grind.

[Abernathy]

Well, the PM didn’t visit a Welsh Senedd by-election principally because he’s the UK Prime Minister and not the Welsh First Minister, and UK Prime Ministers don’t usually visit by-elections for the devolved parliaments, but also because he was too busy doing UK Prime Minister stuff (that Nigel Farage, Iorwen Ap Hughes, or the leader of the Welsh Tories (whoever that might be) don’t have to. Doesn’t mean he’s a “busted flush”, or “toxic”, or doesn’t care about Wales.

Jeez, this Will Hayward joker doesn’t half write a load of old wank.

It’s very strange how a Welsh Senedd by-election suddenly seems to have become the most important election since 1945.

[Tubby Isaacs]

HS2 may have been an issue, I see. This is a quite spectacular fuck up by Labour in opposition where they claimed that Barnett Consequentials were due. They weren't, because rail isn't devolved to Wales like it is in Scotland, which has to meet more of the costs of rail from its own budget. Plaid, not unreasonably, have quoted Labour's own words back at them. I don't know if they'd commit to taking on the full cost of rail in Wales (aside from the Great Western Mainline, of course, that's a UK line). I haven't seen the numbers crunched,

[Oboogie]

My takeaway from this result is optimistic. The real story of last night is that, when confronted with polls suggesting a two horse race between Plaid and Reform, the wise people of Caerphilly chose Plaid. There's solid evidence of tactical voting by supporters of Labour, Lib-Dems and Greens to keep the fascists out, hopefully this will be repeated wherever Reform are contenders.

[Tubby Isaacs]

My takeaway is optimistic too. Looking at Caerphilly in the General Election, adding Con-Kip together, they got 31.8%. That rose to 38.2%, So decent progress but hardly the shoe in we'd been led to expect. With efficient tactical voting, that's not enough to win.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Lots of England may be tougher. In Runcorn and Helsby, Con-Kip got 45%. That's hard to defeat by tactical voting. Labour certainly need a recovery as well.

[The Weeping Angel]

My takeaway is optimistic too. Looking at Caerphilly in the General Election, adding Con-Kip together, they got 31.8%. That rose to 38.2%, So decent progress but hardly the shoe in we'd been led to expect. With efficient tactical voting, that's not enough to win.

Hopefully, I worry that it won't be enough for next May.