[Tubby Isaacs]

John Rentoul's on hand with useful advice. The lesson you take from parties of the left/centre getting 61% is "don't move to the left". I think there's relatively little room to do that economically, but rhetorically, that's absolutely what they should do. You can think that net immigration needs to be reduced, and that people need to know you're doing it, but still think the current focus has gone too far.

[The Weeping Angel]

Will Hayward has thoughts.

https://willhaywardwales.substack.com/p ... irect=true

What this means for Labour
The Labour vote has totally and utterly collapsed. There is no sugar coating it, this is a catastrophic result for the party. If this level of support was replicated across Wales in May next year, they could end up with no seats.

These are the key lessons and takeaways the party needs to have:

Keir Starmer is a busted flush.

At no point in the run up to the vote did Keir Starmer come and campaign in Caerphilly. This is a seat which his party previously held with a huge majority yet the PM didn’t bother to show his face.

One might think, given the really tragic circumstances that led to this byelection, the leader of the Labour Party might want to come be in the area to support his fellow party members. By contrast Nigel Farage has been in the area campaigning. So has Rhun ap Iorwerth. So has Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar. But Keir Starmer never did.

There could be two reasons for this. Either he is seen as so electorally toxic that he will do more harm than good. Or he doesn’t really see Wales as a priority. Either way, this is a terrible state of affairs for Labour.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Or he knew they were losing anyway, and gave Plaid a clear run. How did Darren Millar's campaigning go?

I've not been impressed by Will Hayward in the past.

[The Weeping Angel]

Or he knew they were losing anyway, and gave Plaid a clear run. How did Darren Millar's campaigning go?

I've not been impressed by Will Hayward in the past.

I mean, I don't recall Ed Davey or Kemi going down there either. I've come across a few of his articles for the Guardian, and he's got an axe to grind.

[Abernathy]

Well, the PM didn’t visit a Welsh Senedd by-election principally because he’s the UK Prime Minister and not the Welsh First Minister, and UK Prime Ministers don’t usually visit by-elections for the devolved parliaments, but also because he was too busy doing UK Prime Minister stuff (that Nigel Farage, Iorwen Ap Hughes, or the leader of the Welsh Tories (whoever that might be) don’t have to. Doesn’t mean he’s a “busted flush”, or “toxic”, or doesn’t care about Wales.

Jeez, this Will Hayward joker doesn’t half write a load of old wank.

It’s very strange how a Welsh Senedd by-election suddenly seems to have become the most important election since 1945.

[Tubby Isaacs]

HS2 may have been an issue, I see. This is a quite spectacular fuck up by Labour in opposition where they claimed that Barnett Consequentials were due. They weren't, because rail isn't devolved to Wales like it is in Scotland, which has to meet more of the costs of rail from its own budget. Plaid, not unreasonably, have quoted Labour's own words back at them. I don't know if they'd commit to taking on the full cost of rail in Wales (aside from the Great Western Mainline, of course, that's a UK line). I haven't seen the numbers crunched,

[Oboogie]

My takeaway from this result is optimistic. The real story of last night is that, when confronted with polls suggesting a two horse race between Plaid and Reform, the wise people of Caerphilly chose Plaid. There's solid evidence of tactical voting by supporters of Labour, Lib-Dems and Greens to keep the fascists out, hopefully this will be repeated wherever Reform are contenders.

[Tubby Isaacs]

My takeaway is optimistic too. Looking at Caerphilly in the General Election, adding Con-Kip together, they got 31.8%. That rose to 38.2%, So decent progress but hardly the shoe in we'd been led to expect. With efficient tactical voting, that's not enough to win.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Lots of England may be tougher. In Runcorn and Helsby, Con-Kip got 45%. That's hard to defeat by tactical voting. Labour certainly need a recovery as well.

[The Weeping Angel]

My takeaway is optimistic too. Looking at Caerphilly in the General Election, adding Con-Kip together, they got 31.8%. That rose to 38.2%, So decent progress but hardly the shoe in we'd been led to expect. With efficient tactical voting, that's not enough to win.

Hopefully, I worry that it won't be enough for next May.

[Youngian]

The omens aren't good for Reform as the baggage piles on; car crashes at council level, Russia, Trump, an influx of Christians nationalist woo woos, Zack Tit whisperer shoring up dustbin votes and its fag packet economics facing closer scrutiny.

[Boiler]

This should be a good thing but I do worry about the blind loyalty vote - you only have to look across the Atlantic for that.

I'm yet to see them achieve anything in Lincolnshire.

[Youngian]

I'm yet to see them achieve anything in Lincolnshire.

Credit where its due even if I'm nowhere convinced Jenkyns thought this up.

[uote]More than a thousand exhibitors, delegates and guests attended the inaugural Lincolnshire Great Exhibition earlier, organisers said.

The Greater Lincolnshire Mayor Dame Andrea Jenkyns, of Reform UK, put together and hosted the event to showcase the county-based companies and products.

Exhibits on display at the Lincolnshire Showground included agricultural robots, military defence drones and food.

Dame Andrea said she developed the event to "shine a positive light on the county". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79784jw1z9o [/quote]

[Boiler]

Interesting - ta for that.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Image.jpeg (212.04 KiB) Viewed 728 times

[Tubby Isaacs]

This isn't the best from these Plaid politicians.

https://www.inyourarea.co.uk/news/plaid ... ylon-plans

Plaid Cymru politicians from the Senedd and Westminster have stood in unison with communities at a public meeting against proposed pylon plans for mid and west Wales.

Perhaps it's one of these situations (like the Greens in Waveney Valley, and the Lib Dems in South Cotswolds) where every politician is against this sort of stuff? I'd guess more urban Plaid is more relaxed about pylons.

[RedSparrows]

This should be a good thing but I do worry about the blind loyalty vote - you only have to look across the Atlantic for that.

I'm yet to see them achieve anything in Lincolnshire.

I don't really see the Reform hardcore as being Reform hardcore like Trump fans. They're in the home most currently convenient, but there's not the same manichean dynamic in the UK as there is in the USA, though some want to stoke it. Even so, it's not the same now or for some time yet, even if we're being pessimistic.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I've said before that I don't rate this commentator, Will Hayward before. He poses as someone all over the numbers, but offers massively politicized commentary that always seems to conclude UK Labour are bad, and Welsh Labour spineless.

Here he talks about child poverty in Wales, with the argument that the Welsh Government should set its own income tax rates like in Scotland, and fund it. I get deeply irritated by Scottish Nationalists claiming that they pay for all the extra spending over and above England by pointing to this. At the same time though I was surprised how much the extra Scottish taxes did raise, and they do (even with fairly pessimistic assumptions about behaviour change) more than cover the child payment.

So Wales should just do the same, right? Plaid are arguing that. Are they intending to go into Welsh elections arguing for that? That's brave, and I can see Reform running with that. It would of course raise much less in Wales than Scotland because Wales is poorer. But you could definitely do some good with it, so let's go with that. Labour have always opposed higher income taxes in Wales, and continue to do so.

Will doesn't leave it at "Plaid or whoever wins the election should definitely do this". This is his additional take.

To blithely say that they “don’t want the levers” to deal with this issue is to say “we don’t want to tackle child poverty”. We all know that the real answer is “we want the levers but know there is no chance in hell our colleagues in Westminster will even discuss giving them to us so we better keep quiet”.

Not the slightest pretence of objectivity here, is there?

And people who call for devolution need to be mindful that the result isn't always (or even mostly?) progressive romps home in election and fixes child poverty. Any party competitive in Wales at all who might do the exact opposite?

The answer is a better UK settlement for Wales. And, putting it bluntly, a worse one for Scotland.

https://willhaywardwales.substack.com/p ... iefing-53d

[Killer Whale]

The answer is a better UK settlement for Wales.

I think the point is that that is never going to happen.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Not a big change to the core Barnett Formula, sadly. There might be more capital investment funded directly, like is happening with the South Wales Metro, which I gather from Christian Wolmar in Rail is impressive. Could do more with the North Wales Mainline, and joining Wrexham to Liverpool (the first stage of which is happening, but with much more money needed for the later stages). But those aren't child poverty projects, even if you do get more money into Wales.

Nearly all the Scottish extra income tax revenue comes from raising what in England and Wales is the 40p rate. The extra on the 45p rate raises very little, and would raise less in Wales. Is there the appetite for Plaid to raise the 40p rate to 42p? Especially if the basis rate goes up too.